Although fantasy football continues to grow at an astoundingly rapid rate, arguments persist regarding the fact that most scoring formats do not suffice as a true barometer of a player’s skill level. These football “purists” point to several factors, including, amongst other considerations, the disproportionate emphasis on production numbers like touchdowns and yards, which are given equal value regardless of situation or difficulty.
While fantasy owners have come to accept- and even embrace, in some cases- the reality of this discrepancy, it might be worthwhile to see how much, if any, of a correlation there is between how valuable a player has been (using PFF’s exclusive ratings) and their fantasy output (non-PPR standard scoring leagues).
Because each position group requires different responsibilities, and thus differing criteria on which PFF grades them, I have separated the correlations between PFF ratings and fantasy points by position. A summary of the study is below:
Position | # | Correlation |
QB | 21 | 70.70% |
RB | 37 | 52.26% |
WR | 46 | 15.70% |
TE | 21 | 15.90% |
The numbers of players I took into account differed based on position in order to gain level ground based on playing time. I mostly used my own discretion with this, although I used some hard and fast rules, including: must be within top 25 QBs in fantasy scoring; must have started at least 1 game or be part of a timeshare (RBs), etc. Additionally, there was no need to account for snaps/games missed, since PFF ratings would not necessarily increase based on more snaps. Therefore, without further ado, my analysis, by position:
Quarterback
# | Name | Team | Overall | Yds | TD | In | F Pts | F Rk |
1 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 54.6 | 3321 | 25 | 9 | 210 | 7 |
2 | Philip Rivers | SD | 53.2 | 4141 | 29 | 11 | 248 | 3 |
3 | Peyton Manning | IND | 52.2 | 4257 | 28 | 15 | 244 | 5 |
4 | Drew Brees | NO | 48.7 | 4122 | 31 | 19 | 244 | 5 |
5 | Michael Vick | PHI | 48.6 | 2755 | 20 | 5 | 280 | 1 |
6 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 46.3 | 3302 | 23 | 10 | 245 | 4 |
7 | Matt Schaub | HST | 42.8 | 3808 | 22 | 11 | 209 | 8 |
8 | Roethlisberger | PIT | 39.9 | 2920 | 15 | 5 | 162 | 21 |
9 | Tom Brady | NE | 36 | 3561 | 31 | 4 | 256 | 2 |
10 | Eli Manning | NYG | 35.8 | 3458 | 28 | 20 | 196 | 12 |
11 | Joe Flacco | BLT | 33.7 | 3466 | 23 | 8 | 207 | 9 |
12 | David Garrard | JAX | 31.9 | 2435 | 22 | 13 | 188 | 14 |
13 | Josh Freeman | TB | 29.9 | 2962 | 18 | 6 | 198 | 11 |
14 | Jay Cutler | CHI | 27.5 | 2911 | 20 | 13 | 170 | 18 |
15 | Carson Palmer | CIN | 26.7 | 3386 | 21 | 18 | 176 | 17 |
16 | Chad Henne | MIA | 24 | 2949 | 14 | 15 | 135 | 23 |
17 | Shaun Hill | DET | 23.8 | 2206 | 13 | 11 | 122 | 25 |
18 | Matt Cassel | KC | 21.3 | 2687 | 24 | 5 | 191 | 13 |
19 | Sam Bradford | SL | 20.1 | 3074 | 17 | 14 | 163 | 20 |
20 | Kyle Orton | DEN | 19.3 | 3657 | 20 | 9 | 200 | 10 |
21 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | BUF | 18.9 | 2741 | 23 | 12 | 184 | 15 |
Correlation: 70.70% – High
Outliers: Ben Roethlisberger (PFF: 8; Fantasy: 21); Tom Brady (PFF: 9; Fantasy: 2)
Interestingly, isolating Roethlisberger’s numbers from the remainder of the crop yields a very strong 75% correlation between fantasy and PFF scoring. Did Roethlisberger’s 4-game suspension artificially inflate his PFF:Fantasy ratio? Perhaps. Still, this high correlation coefficient strongly suggests that standard fantasy scoring is actually a pretty solid barometer of how well the QB has played, at least in 2010.
Running Back
(Top 20)
# | Name | Team | Overall | Att. | Yds | Avg. | TD | Fu | F Pts | F Rk |
1 | Jamaal Charles | KC | 24.5 | 203 | 1304 | 6.4 | 4 | 1 | 185 | 9 |
2 | Ahmad Bradshaw | NYG | 22.4 | 249 | 1186 | 4.8 | 8 | 5 | 172 | 12 |
3 | Peyton Hillis | CLV | 22.2 | 252 | 1133 | 4.5 | 11 | 6 | 214 | 2 |
4 | Arian Foster | HST | 18.5 | 277 | 1345 | 4.9 | 13 | 3 | 263 | 1 |
5 | Adrian L. Peterson | MIN | 16 | 247 | 1149 | 4.7 | 11 | 0 | 213 | 3 |
6 | Maurice Jones-Drew | JAX | 15 | 301 | 1311 | 4.4 | 5 | 2 | 186 | 8 |
7 | LeSean McCoy | PHI | 13.7 | 194 | 1036 | 5.3 | 7 | 1 | 198 | 5 |
8 | Danny Woodhead | NE | 11.9 | 82 | 435 | 5.3 | 4 | 0 | 100 | 29 |
9 | Brandon Jackson | GB | 11 | 165 | 645 | 3.9 | 3 | 1 | 106 | 26 |
10 | Matt Forte | CHI | 10.1 | 203 | 868 | 4.3 | 5 | 0 | 162 | 14 |
11 | Darren McFadden | OAK | 10 | 211 | 1112 | 5.3 | 7 | 2 | 201 | 4 |
12 | LeGarrette Blount | TB | 8.8 | 164 | 777 | 4.7 | 6 | 2 | 106 | 27 |
13 | Ray Rice | BLT | 6.9 | 263 | 1058 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 178 | 10 |
15 | Michael Turner | ATL | 6.5 | 300 | 1256 | 4.2 | 11 | 0 | 193 | 7 |
15 | Felix Jones | DAL | 6.5 | 158 | 642 | 4.1 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 25 |
17 | Justin Forsett | SEA | 6.4 | 107 | 483 | 4.5 | 2 | 0 | 72 | 40 |
18 | Joseph Addai | IND | 5.9 | 93 | 406 | 4.4 | 3 | 2 | 63 | 45 |
19 | Frank Gore | SF | 4.5 | 203 | 853 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 147 | 18 |
20 | Fred Jackson | BUF | 3.8 | 196 | 823 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 129 | 21 |
Correlation: 52.26% – Average
Outliers: Chris Johnson (PFF: 38; Fantasy: 6); Joe Addai (PFF: 18; Fantasy: 45); Steven Jackson (PFF: 48; Fantasy: 13)
Several productive veterans have slipped a bit in terms of PFF ratings, though they continue to get the touches required to post decent fantasy numbers. After his record-shattering performance of a season ago, Chris Johnson has had a rather pedestrian 2010 campaign. His discrepancy can be directly attributed to an awful job in the passing game; Johnson’s combined -10.2 Pass/Block ratio is the worst in the NFL. On the other hand, PFF loves the oft-injured Joe Addai- though he’s taken part in just 292 snaps on the season, he’s performed admirably when on the field, both as a runner (5.3) and blocker (1.4). For similar reasons, Packer fans might be surprised to see Brandon Jackson crack PFF’s top 10- his abilities out of the backfield as both a receiver and blocker more than make up for his admittedly poor performance as a runner- his 0.9 Run rating is one of the worst in the league given the high volume of snaps he’s seen, which explains being rated 29th in fantasy.
Wide Receiver
(Top 21)
# | Name | Team | Overall | Rec. | % Ct | Yds | TD | F Pts | F Rk |
1 | Brandon Lloyd | DEN | 18.7 | 67 | 52.8 | 1264 | 10 | 179 | 1 |
2 | Andre Johnson | HST | 14.3 | 86 | 65.6 | 1216 | 8 | 164 | 6 |
3 | Calvin Johnson | DET | 11.8 | 73 | 58.9 | 1068 | 12 | 177 | 2 |
4 | Hakeem Nicks | NYG | 10.2 | 75 | 64.1 | 959 | 10 | 150 | 7 |
5 | Deion Branch | NE | 9.2 | 46 | 68.7 | 681 | 5 | 110 | 22 |
6 | Percy Harvin | MIN | 8.7 | 56 | 66.7 | 699 | 5 | 116 | 20 |
7 | Davone Bess | MIA | 8.5 | 72 | 69.9 | 748 | 3 | 84 | 40 |
8 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARZ | 8.3 | 78 | 52.7 | 986 | 5 | 126 | 16 |
9 | Lance Moore | NO | 7.6 | 56 | 72.7 | 662 | 8 | 105 | 26 |
10 | Mike Williams | SEA | 7.5 | 60 | 62.5 | 720 | 1 | 72 | 57 |
11 | Austin Collie | IND | 7.3 | 58 | 82.9 | 649 | 8 | 107 | 24 |
12 | Arrelious Benn | TB | 7.2 | 24 | 66.7 | 379 | 2 | 45 | 80 |
13 | Marques Colston | NO | 7 | 82 | 67.8 | 1001 | 7 | 136 | 14 |
14 | Malcom Floyd | SD | 6.9 | 35 | 53.8 | 660 | 6 | 98 | 30 |
15 | Earl Bennett | CHI | 6.3 | 45 | 72.6 | 547 | 3 | 67 | 60 |
16 | Dwayne Bowe | KC | 5.5 | 61 | 57.5 | 941 | 14 | 173 | 3 |
17 | Patrick Crayton | SD | 5.3 | 28 | 66.7 | 514 | 1 | 54 | 74 |
18 | Mike Thomas | JAX | 5.2 | 59 | 68.6 | 708 | 3 | 90 | 36 |
19 | Mike Wallace | PIT | 5.1 | 57 | 64.8 | 1152 | 9 | 150 | 8 |
20 | Michael Jenkins | ATL | 5 | 31 | 58.5 | 413 | 2 | 48 | 79 |
21 | Roddy White | ATL | 4.9 | 106 | 68.8 | 1284 | 8 | 171 | 4 |
Correlation: 15.70% – Poor
Outliers: Davone Bess (PFF: 7; Fantasy: 40); Patrick Crayton (PFF: 17; Fantasy: 74); Mike Williams (SEA) (PFF: 10; Fantasy: 57); DeSean Jackson (PFF: 91; Fantasy: 9); Miles Austin (PFF: 103; Fantasy: 15)
This is where we start seeing some very strange things. The correlation between PFF’s ratings scale and fantasy production is almost completely random amongst receivers. A quick look indicates, not surprisingly, that high-volume possession guys, like Davone Bess, find themselves in PFF’s top 10, while low in standard fantasy scoring ranks. Keep in mind, the fantasy rank is based on non-PPR scoring only; a reception-rewarding league would certainly adjust the correlation coefficient. Running poor routes, dropping catchable balls, and not blocking well are all penalized aspects of PFF’s rating system that simply are not accounted for in fantasy football, and the surprising presences of Terrell Owens (2nd worst blocker), DeSean Jackson (3rd in drops), and Miles Austin (negative Block, Pass, and Penalty ratings) towards the bottom of the list plays a role in some way or another for all three of these players.
However, there is an interesting consideration worth taking into account. If you only include the top 21 players (as listed above), the correlation between PFF’s ratings and the fantasy production of those players balloons to nearly 49%. This serves to illustrate that perhaps the ratings system through 14 games may be a bit too arbitrary to compare players, as the middling tiers of receivers get closer and closer to a 0.0 rating.
Tight End
# | Name | Team | Overall | Rec. | Yds | TD | F Pts | F Rk |
1 | Jason Witten | DAL | 22.2 | 82 | 911 | 7 | 126 | 2 |
2 | Marcedes Lewis | JAX | 21.1 | 51 | 637 | 9 | 110 | 3 |
3 | Martellus Bennett | DAL | 12.9 | 28 | 227 | 0 | 18 | 47 |
4 | Anthony Fasano | MIA | 10.8 | 37 | 497 | 4 | 68 | 16 |
5 | Tony Moeaki | KC | 10.4 | 41 | 476 | 3 | 61 | 18 |
6 | Antonio Gates | SD | 9.2 | 50 | 782 | 10 | 134 | 1 |
7 | Jacob Tamme | IND | 7.8 | 53 | 486 | 3 | 63 | 17 |
8 | Rob Gronkowski | NE | 6.3 | 32 | 390 | 7 | 74 | 13 |
9 | Zach J. Miller | OAK | 5.9 | 46 | 590 | 4 | 75 | 11 |
10 | Robert Royal | CLV | 5.7 | 5 | 56 | 1 | 10 | – |
11 | Dallas Clark | IND | 4.3 | 37 | 347 | 3 | 51 | 25 |
12 | Aaron Hernandez | NE | 4.1 | 45 | 563 | 6 | 89 | 5 |
13 | Randy McMichael | SD | 4 | 16 | 186 | 2 | 26 | – |
14 | Jim Kleinsasser | MIN | 3 | 14 | 123 | 0 | 8 | – |
14 | Delanie Walker | SF | 3 | 25 | 297 | 0 | 23 | – |
16 | Vernon Davis | SF | 2.3 | 50 | 748 | 6 | 107 | 4 |
17 | Joel Dreessen | HST | 1.5 | 31 | 434 | 4 | 60 | 19 |
18 | Ben Watson | CLV | 1.2 | 58 | 676 | 3 | 80 | 9 |
19 | Dan Gronkowski | DEN | 0.3 | 8 | 64 | 0 | 3 | – |
20 | Alge Crumpler | NE | 0.1 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 2 | – |
31 | Kevin Boss | NYG | -2.8 | 33 | 502 | 5 | 73 | 15 |
34 | Todd Heap | BLT | -4.2 | 37 | 546 | 5 | 78 | 10 |
38 | Dustin Keller | NYJ | -5.6 | 48 | 608 | 5 | 82 | 8 |
39 | Brandon Pettigrew | DET | -5.9 | 64 | 629 | 3 | 74 | 12 |
46 | Chris Cooley | WAS | -8.1 | 67 | 748 | 3 | 87 | 6 |
49 | Tony Gonzalez | ATL | -8.9 | 62 | 591 | 5 | 82 | 7 |
50 | Kellen Winslow | TB | -9.3 | 53 | 581 | 3 | 73 | 14 |
Correlation: 15.90% – Poor
Outliers: Martellus Bennett (PFF: 3; Fantasy: 47); Robert Royal (PFF: 10; Fantasy: Out of top 50)
As expected, given the heavy emphasis on blocking, tight ends have a very low correlation percentage between their Overall PFF Rating and their fantasy production. The amount of significant injuries to high-profile receiving tight ends (Jermichael Finley, Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Zach Miller, Owen Daniels, and others have all missed time) make gaining any significant knowledge from this case study worth putting on hold until we can observe these weapons at work for a full season.
What we can gather from all this is that the football purists/naysayers of fantasy football are both right and wrong- there is not a discernable correlation at tight end, nor at wide receiver, as a whole, between fantasy production and a player’s position-respective value. Still, there is a great deal to be said about drafting excellent quarterbacks to be your starting fantasy QB, and stud running backs by PFF’s ratings also tend to make for quality options in fantasy lineups. Keep this in mind as you move forward in your fantasy endeavors.