Fantasy: Where Fantasy Meets Reality

Although fantasy football continues to grow at an astoundingly rapid rate, arguments persist regarding the fact that most scoring formats do not suffice as a true barometer of a player’s skill level. These football “purists” point to several factors, including, amongst other considerations, the disproportionate emphasis on production numbers like touchdowns and yards, which are given equal value regardless of situation or difficulty.

While fantasy owners have come to accept- and even embrace, in some cases- the reality of this discrepancy, it might be worthwhile to see how much, if any, of a correlation there is between how valuable a player has been (using PFF’s exclusive ratings) and their fantasy output (non-PPR standard scoring leagues).

Because each position group requires different responsibilities, and thus differing criteria on which PFF grades them, I have separated the correlations between PFF ratings and fantasy points by position. A summary of the study is below:

Position	#	Correlation
QB	21	70.70%
RB	37	52.26%
WR	46	15.70%
TE	21	15.90%

The numbers of players I took into account differed based on position in order to gain level ground based on playing time. I mostly used my own discretion with this, although I used some hard and fast rules, including: must be within top 25 QBs in fantasy scoring; must have started at least 1 game or be part of a timeshare (RBs), etc. Additionally, there was no need to account for snaps/games missed, since PFF ratings would not necessarily increase based on more snaps. Therefore, without further ado, my analysis, by position:

Quarterback

#	Name	Team	Overall	Yds	TD	In	F Pts	F Rk
1	Matt Ryan	ATL	54.6	3321	25	9	210	7
2	Philip Rivers	SD	53.2	4141	29	11	248	3
3	Peyton Manning	IND	52.2	4257	28	15	244	5
4	Drew Brees	NO	48.7	4122	31	19	244	5
5	Michael Vick	PHI	48.6	2755	20	5	280	1
6	Aaron Rodgers	GB	46.3	3302	23	10	245	4
7	Matt Schaub	HST	42.8	3808	22	11	209	8
8	Roethlisberger	PIT	39.9	2920	15	5	162	21
9	Tom Brady	NE	36	3561	31	4	256	2
10	Eli Manning	NYG	35.8	3458	28	20	196	12
11	Joe Flacco	BLT	33.7	3466	23	8	207	9
12	David Garrard	JAX	31.9	2435	22	13	188	14
13	Josh Freeman	TB	29.9	2962	18	6	198	11
14	Jay Cutler	CHI	27.5	2911	20	13	170	18
15	Carson Palmer	CIN	26.7	3386	21	18	176	17
16	Chad Henne	MIA	24	2949	14	15	135	23
17	Shaun Hill	DET	23.8	2206	13	11	122	25
18	Matt Cassel	KC	21.3	2687	24	5	191	13
19	Sam Bradford	SL	20.1	3074	17	14	163	20
20	Kyle Orton	DEN	19.3	3657	20	9	200	10
21	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	18.9	2741	23	12	184	15

Correlation: 70.70% – High

Outliers: Ben Roethlisberger (PFF: 8; Fantasy: 21); Tom Brady (PFF: 9; Fantasy: 2)

Interestingly, isolating Roethlisberger’s numbers from the remainder of the crop yields a very strong 75% correlation between fantasy and PFF scoring. Did Roethlisberger’s 4-game suspension artificially inflate his PFF:Fantasy ratio? Perhaps. Still, this high correlation coefficient strongly suggests that standard fantasy scoring is actually a pretty solid barometer of how well the QB has played, at least in 2010.

Running Back

(Top 20)

#	Name	Team	Overall	Att.	Yds	Avg.	TD	Fu	F Pts	F Rk
1	Jamaal Charles	KC	24.5	203	1304	6.4	4	1	185	9
2	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	22.4	249	1186	4.8	8	5	172	12
3	Peyton Hillis	CLV	22.2	252	1133	4.5	11	6	214	2
4	Arian Foster	HST	18.5	277	1345	4.9	13	3	263	1
5	Adrian L. Peterson	MIN	16	247	1149	4.7	11	0	213	3
6	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	15	301	1311	4.4	5	2	186	8
7	LeSean McCoy	PHI	13.7	194	1036	5.3	7	1	198	5
8	Danny Woodhead	NE	11.9	82	435	5.3	4	0	100	29
9	Brandon Jackson	GB	11	165	645	3.9	3	1	106	26
10	Matt Forte	CHI	10.1	203	868	4.3	5	0	162	14
11	Darren McFadden	OAK	10	211	1112	5.3	7	2	201	4
12	LeGarrette Blount	TB	8.8	164	777	4.7	6	2	106	27
13	Ray Rice	BLT	6.9	263	1058	4	4	0	178	10
15	Michael Turner	ATL	6.5	300	1256	4.2	11	0	193	7
15	Felix Jones	DAL	6.5	158	642	4.1	1	1	107	25
17	Justin Forsett	SEA	6.4	107	483	4.5	2	0	72	40
18	Joseph Addai	IND	5.9	93	406	4.4	3	2	63	45
19	Frank Gore	SF	4.5	203	853	4.2	3	2	147	18
20	Fred Jackson	BUF	3.8	196	823	4.2	5	2	129	21

Correlation: 52.26% – Average

Outliers: Chris Johnson (PFF: 38; Fantasy: 6); Joe Addai (PFF: 18; Fantasy: 45); Steven Jackson (PFF: 48; Fantasy: 13)

Several productive veterans have slipped a bit in terms of PFF ratings, though they continue to get the touches required to post decent fantasy numbers. After his record-shattering performance of a season ago, Chris Johnson has had a rather pedestrian 2010 campaign. His discrepancy can be directly attributed to an awful job in the passing game; Johnson’s combined -10.2 Pass/Block ratio is the worst in the NFL. On the other hand, PFF loves the oft-injured Joe Addai- though he’s taken part in just 292 snaps on the season, he’s performed admirably when on the field, both as a runner (5.3) and blocker (1.4). For similar reasons, Packer fans might be surprised to see Brandon Jackson crack PFF’s top 10- his abilities out of the backfield as both a receiver and blocker more than make up for his admittedly poor performance as a runner- his 0.9 Run rating is one of the worst in the league given the high volume of snaps he’s seen, which explains being rated 29^th in fantasy.

Wide Receiver

(Top 21)

#	Name	Team	Overall	Rec.	% Ct	Yds	TD	F Pts	F Rk
1	Brandon Lloyd	DEN	18.7	67	52.8	1264	10	179	1
2	Andre Johnson	HST	14.3	86	65.6	1216	8	164	6
3	Calvin Johnson	DET	11.8	73	58.9	1068	12	177	2
4	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	10.2	75	64.1	959	10	150	7
5	Deion Branch	NE	9.2	46	68.7	681	5	110	22
6	Percy Harvin	MIN	8.7	56	66.7	699	5	116	20
7	Davone Bess	MIA	8.5	72	69.9	748	3	84	40
8	Larry Fitzgerald	ARZ	8.3	78	52.7	986	5	126	16
9	Lance Moore	NO	7.6	56	72.7	662	8	105	26
10	Mike Williams	SEA	7.5	60	62.5	720	1	72	57
11	Austin Collie	IND	7.3	58	82.9	649	8	107	24
12	Arrelious Benn	TB	7.2	24	66.7	379	2	45	80
13	Marques Colston	NO	7	82	67.8	1001	7	136	14
14	Malcom Floyd	SD	6.9	35	53.8	660	6	98	30
15	Earl Bennett	CHI	6.3	45	72.6	547	3	67	60
16	Dwayne Bowe	KC	5.5	61	57.5	941	14	173	3
17	Patrick Crayton	SD	5.3	28	66.7	514	1	54	74
18	Mike Thomas	JAX	5.2	59	68.6	708	3	90	36
19	Mike Wallace	PIT	5.1	57	64.8	1152	9	150	8
20	Michael Jenkins	ATL	5	31	58.5	413	2	48	79
21	Roddy White	ATL	4.9	106	68.8	1284	8	171	4

Correlation: 15.70% – Poor

Outliers: Davone Bess (PFF: 7; Fantasy: 40); Patrick Crayton (PFF: 17; Fantasy: 74); Mike Williams (SEA) (PFF: 10; Fantasy: 57); DeSean Jackson (PFF: 91; Fantasy: 9); Miles Austin (PFF: 103; Fantasy: 15)

This is where we start seeing some very strange things. The correlation between PFF’s ratings scale and fantasy production is almost completely random amongst receivers. A quick look indicates, not surprisingly, that high-volume possession guys, like Davone Bess, find themselves in PFF’s top 10, while low in standard fantasy scoring ranks. Keep in mind, the fantasy rank is based on non-PPR scoring only; a reception-rewarding league would certainly adjust the correlation coefficient. Running poor routes, dropping catchable balls, and not blocking well are all penalized aspects of PFF’s rating system that simply are not accounted for in fantasy football, and the surprising presences of Terrell Owens (2^nd worst blocker), DeSean Jackson (3^rd in drops), and Miles Austin (negative Block, Pass, and Penalty ratings) towards the bottom of the list plays a role in some way or another for all three of these players.

However, there is an interesting consideration worth taking into account. If you only include the top 21 players (as listed above), the correlation between PFF’s ratings and the fantasy production of those players balloons to nearly 49%. This serves to illustrate that perhaps the ratings system through 14 games may be a bit too arbitrary to compare players, as the middling tiers of receivers get closer and closer to a 0.0 rating.

Tight End

#	Name	Team	Overall	Rec.	Yds	TD	F Pts	F Rk
1	Jason Witten	DAL	22.2	82	911	7	126	2
2	Marcedes Lewis	JAX	21.1	51	637	9	110	3
3	Martellus Bennett	DAL	12.9	28	227	0	18	47
4	Anthony Fasano	MIA	10.8	37	497	4	68	16
5	Tony Moeaki	KC	10.4	41	476	3	61	18
6	Antonio Gates	SD	9.2	50	782	10	134	1
7	Jacob Tamme	IND	7.8	53	486	3	63	17
8	Rob Gronkowski	NE	6.3	32	390	7	74	13
9	Zach J. Miller	OAK	5.9	46	590	4	75	11
10	Robert Royal	CLV	5.7	5	56	1	10	–
11	Dallas Clark	IND	4.3	37	347	3	51	25
12	Aaron Hernandez	NE	4.1	45	563	6	89	5
13	Randy McMichael	SD	4	16	186	2	26	–
14	Jim Kleinsasser	MIN	3	14	123	0	8	–
14	Delanie Walker	SF	3	25	297	0	23	–
16	Vernon Davis	SF	2.3	50	748	6	107	4
17	Joel Dreessen	HST	1.5	31	434	4	60	19
18	Ben Watson	CLV	1.2	58	676	3	80	9
19	Dan Gronkowski	DEN	0.3	8	64	0	3	–
20	Alge Crumpler	NE	0.1	4	38	0	2	–
31	Kevin Boss	NYG	-2.8	33	502	5	73	15
34	Todd Heap	BLT	-4.2	37	546	5	78	10
38	Dustin Keller	NYJ	-5.6	48	608	5	82	8
39	Brandon Pettigrew	DET	-5.9	64	629	3	74	12
46	Chris Cooley	WAS	-8.1	67	748	3	87	6
49	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	-8.9	62	591	5	82	7
50	Kellen Winslow	TB	-9.3	53	581	3	73	14

Correlation: 15.90% – Poor

Outliers: Martellus Bennett (PFF: 3; Fantasy: 47); Robert Royal (PFF: 10; Fantasy: Out of top 50)

As expected, given the heavy emphasis on blocking, tight ends have a very low correlation percentage between their Overall PFF Rating and their fantasy production. The amount of significant injuries to high-profile receiving tight ends (Jermichael Finley, Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Zach Miller, Owen Daniels, and others have all missed time) make gaining any significant knowledge from this case study worth putting on hold until we can observe these weapons at work for a full season.

What we can gather from all this is that the football purists/naysayers of fantasy football are both right and wrong- there is not a discernable correlation at tight end, nor at wide receiver, as a whole, between fantasy production and a player’s position-respective value. Still, there is a great deal to be said about drafting excellent quarterbacks to be your starting fantasy QB, and stud running backs by PFF’s ratings also tend to make for quality options in fantasy lineups. Keep this in mind as you move forward in your fantasy endeavors.