Fantasy: Where Fantasy Meets Reality

Although fantasy football continues to grow at an astoundingly rapid rate, arguments persist regarding the fact that most scoring formats do not suffice as a true barometer of a player’s skill level. These football “purists” point to several factors, including, amongst other considerations, the disproportionate emphasis on production numbers like touchdowns and yards, which are given equal value regardless of situation or difficulty.

While fantasy owners have come to accept- and even embrace, in some cases- the reality of this discrepancy, it might be worthwhile to see how much, if any, of a correlation there is between how valuable a player has been (using PFF’s exclusive ratings) and their fantasy output (non-PPR standard scoring leagues).

Because each position group requires different responsibilities, and thus differing criteria on which PFF grades them, I have separated the correlations between PFF ratings and fantasy points by position. A summary of the study is below:

Position # Correlation
QB 21 70.70%
RB 37 52.26%
WR 46 15.70%
TE 21 15.90%

The numbers of players I took into account differed based on position in order to gain level ground based on playing time. I mostly used my own discretion with this, although I used some hard and fast rules, including: must be within top 25 QBs in fantasy scoring; must have started at least 1 game or be part of a timeshare (RBs), etc. Additionally, there was no need to account for snaps/games missed, since PFF ratings would not necessarily increase based on more snaps. Therefore, without further ado, my analysis, by position:

Quarterback

# Name Team Overall Yds TD In F Pts F Rk
1 Matt Ryan ATL 54.6 3321 25 9 210 7
2 Philip Rivers SD 53.2 4141 29 11 248 3
3 Peyton Manning IND 52.2 4257 28 15 244 5
4 Drew Brees NO 48.7 4122 31 19 244 5
5 Michael Vick PHI 48.6 2755 20 5 280 1
6 Aaron Rodgers GB 46.3 3302 23 10 245 4
7 Matt Schaub HST 42.8 3808 22 11 209 8
8 Roethlisberger PIT 39.9 2920 15 5 162 21
9 Tom Brady NE 36 3561 31 4 256 2
10 Eli Manning NYG 35.8 3458 28 20 196 12
11 Joe Flacco BLT 33.7 3466 23 8 207 9
12 David Garrard JAX 31.9 2435 22 13 188 14
13 Josh Freeman TB 29.9 2962 18 6 198 11
14 Jay Cutler CHI 27.5 2911 20 13 170 18
15 Carson Palmer CIN 26.7 3386 21 18 176 17
16 Chad Henne MIA 24 2949 14 15 135 23
17 Shaun Hill DET 23.8 2206 13 11 122 25
18 Matt Cassel KC 21.3 2687 24 5 191 13
19 Sam Bradford SL 20.1 3074 17 14 163 20
20 Kyle Orton DEN 19.3 3657 20 9 200 10
21 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 18.9 2741 23 12 184 15

Correlation: 70.70% – High

Outliers: Ben Roethlisberger (PFF: 8; Fantasy: 21); Tom Brady (PFF: 9; Fantasy: 2)

Interestingly, isolating Roethlisberger’s numbers from the remainder of the crop yields a very strong 75% correlation between fantasy and PFF scoring. Did Roethlisberger’s 4-game suspension artificially inflate his PFF:Fantasy ratio? Perhaps. Still, this high correlation coefficient strongly suggests that standard fantasy scoring is actually a pretty solid barometer of how well the QB has played, at least in 2010.

Running Back

(Top 20)

# Name Team Overall Att. Yds Avg. TD Fu F Pts F Rk
1 Jamaal Charles KC 24.5 203 1304 6.4 4 1 185 9
2 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 22.4 249 1186 4.8 8 5 172 12
3 Peyton Hillis CLV 22.2 252 1133 4.5 11 6 214 2
4 Arian Foster HST 18.5 277 1345 4.9 13 3 263 1
5 Adrian L. Peterson MIN 16 247 1149 4.7 11 0 213 3
6 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 15 301 1311 4.4 5 2 186 8
7 LeSean McCoy PHI 13.7 194 1036 5.3 7 1 198 5
8 Danny Woodhead NE 11.9 82 435 5.3 4 0 100 29
9 Brandon Jackson GB 11 165 645 3.9 3 1 106 26
10 Matt Forte CHI 10.1 203 868 4.3 5 0 162 14
11 Darren McFadden OAK 10 211 1112 5.3 7 2 201 4
12 LeGarrette Blount TB 8.8 164 777 4.7 6 2 106 27
13 Ray Rice BLT 6.9 263 1058 4 4 0 178 10
15 Michael Turner ATL 6.5 300 1256 4.2 11 0 193 7
15 Felix Jones DAL 6.5 158 642 4.1 1 1 107 25
17 Justin Forsett SEA 6.4 107 483 4.5 2 0 72 40
18 Joseph Addai IND 5.9 93 406 4.4 3 2 63 45
19 Frank Gore SF 4.5 203 853 4.2 3 2 147 18
20 Fred Jackson BUF 3.8 196 823 4.2 5 2 129 21

Correlation: 52.26% – Average

Outliers: Chris Johnson (PFF: 38; Fantasy: 6); Joe Addai (PFF: 18; Fantasy: 45); Steven Jackson (PFF: 48; Fantasy: 13)

Several productive veterans have slipped a bit in terms of PFF ratings, though they continue to get the touches required to post decent fantasy numbers. After his record-shattering performance of a season ago, Chris Johnson has had a rather pedestrian 2010 campaign. His discrepancy can be directly attributed to an awful job in the passing game; Johnson’s combined -10.2 Pass/Block ratio is the worst in the NFL. On the other hand, PFF loves the oft-injured Joe Addai- though he’s taken part in just 292 snaps on the season, he’s performed admirably when on the field, both as a runner (5.3) and blocker (1.4). For similar reasons, Packer fans might be surprised to see Brandon Jackson crack PFF’s top 10- his abilities out of the backfield as both a receiver and blocker more than make up for his admittedly poor performance as a runner- his 0.9 Run rating is one of the worst in the league given the high volume of snaps he’s seen, which explains being rated 29th in fantasy.

Wide Receiver

(Top 21)

# Name Team Overall Rec. % Ct Yds TD F Pts F Rk
1 Brandon Lloyd DEN 18.7 67 52.8 1264 10 179 1
2 Andre Johnson HST 14.3 86 65.6 1216 8 164 6
3 Calvin Johnson DET 11.8 73 58.9 1068 12 177 2
4 Hakeem Nicks NYG 10.2 75 64.1 959 10 150 7
5 Deion Branch NE 9.2 46 68.7 681 5 110 22
6 Percy Harvin MIN 8.7 56 66.7 699 5 116 20
7 Davone Bess MIA 8.5 72 69.9 748 3 84 40
8 Larry Fitzgerald ARZ 8.3 78 52.7 986 5 126 16
9 Lance Moore NO 7.6 56 72.7 662 8 105 26
10 Mike Williams SEA 7.5 60 62.5 720 1 72 57
11 Austin Collie IND 7.3 58 82.9 649 8 107 24
12 Arrelious Benn TB 7.2 24 66.7 379 2 45 80
13 Marques Colston NO 7 82 67.8 1001 7 136 14
14 Malcom Floyd SD 6.9 35 53.8 660 6 98 30
15 Earl Bennett CHI 6.3 45 72.6 547 3 67 60
16 Dwayne Bowe KC 5.5 61 57.5 941 14 173 3
17 Patrick Crayton SD 5.3 28 66.7 514 1 54 74
18 Mike Thomas JAX 5.2 59 68.6 708 3 90 36
19 Mike Wallace PIT 5.1 57 64.8 1152 9 150 8
20 Michael Jenkins ATL 5 31 58.5 413 2 48 79
21 Roddy White ATL 4.9 106 68.8 1284 8 171 4

Correlation: 15.70% – Poor

Outliers: Davone Bess (PFF: 7; Fantasy: 40); Patrick Crayton (PFF: 17; Fantasy: 74); Mike Williams (SEA) (PFF: 10; Fantasy: 57); DeSean Jackson (PFF: 91; Fantasy: 9); Miles Austin (PFF: 103; Fantasy: 15)

This is where we start seeing some very strange things. The correlation between PFF’s ratings scale and fantasy production is almost completely random amongst receivers. A quick look indicates, not surprisingly, that high-volume possession guys, like Davone Bess, find themselves in PFF’s top 10, while low in standard fantasy scoring ranks. Keep in mind, the fantasy rank is based on non-PPR scoring only; a reception-rewarding league would certainly adjust the correlation coefficient. Running poor routes, dropping catchable balls, and not blocking well are all penalized aspects of PFF’s rating system that simply are not accounted for in fantasy football, and the surprising presences of Terrell Owens (2nd worst blocker), DeSean Jackson (3rd in drops), and Miles Austin (negative Block, Pass, and Penalty ratings) towards the bottom of the list plays a role in some way or another for all three of these players.

However, there is an interesting consideration worth taking into account. If you only include the top 21 players (as listed above), the correlation between PFF’s ratings and the fantasy production of those players balloons to nearly 49%. This serves to illustrate that perhaps the ratings system through 14 games may be a bit too arbitrary to compare players, as the middling tiers of receivers get closer and closer to a 0.0 rating.

Tight End

# Name Team Overall Rec. Yds TD F Pts F Rk
1 Jason Witten DAL 22.2 82 911 7 126 2
2 Marcedes Lewis JAX 21.1 51 637 9 110 3
3 Martellus Bennett DAL 12.9 28 227 0 18 47
4 Anthony Fasano MIA 10.8 37 497 4 68 16
5 Tony Moeaki KC 10.4 41 476 3 61 18
6 Antonio Gates SD 9.2 50 782 10 134 1
7 Jacob Tamme IND 7.8 53 486 3 63 17
8 Rob Gronkowski NE 6.3 32 390 7 74 13
9 Zach J. Miller OAK 5.9 46 590 4 75 11
10 Robert Royal CLV 5.7 5 56 1 10
11 Dallas Clark IND 4.3 37 347 3 51 25
12 Aaron Hernandez NE 4.1 45 563 6 89 5
13 Randy McMichael SD 4 16 186 2 26
14 Jim Kleinsasser MIN 3 14 123 0 8
14 Delanie Walker SF 3 25 297 0 23
16 Vernon Davis SF 2.3 50 748 6 107 4
17 Joel Dreessen HST 1.5 31 434 4 60 19
18 Ben Watson CLV 1.2 58 676 3 80 9
19 Dan Gronkowski DEN 0.3 8 64 0 3
20 Alge Crumpler NE 0.1 4 38 0 2
31 Kevin Boss NYG -2.8 33 502 5 73 15
34 Todd Heap BLT -4.2 37 546 5 78 10
38 Dustin Keller NYJ -5.6 48 608 5 82 8
39 Brandon Pettigrew DET -5.9 64 629 3 74 12
46 Chris Cooley WAS -8.1 67 748 3 87 6
49 Tony Gonzalez ATL -8.9 62 591 5 82 7
50 Kellen Winslow TB -9.3 53 581 3 73 14

Correlation: 15.90% – Poor

Outliers: Martellus Bennett (PFF: 3; Fantasy: 47); Robert Royal (PFF: 10; Fantasy: Out of top 50)

As expected, given the heavy emphasis on blocking, tight ends have a very low correlation percentage between their Overall PFF Rating and their fantasy production. The amount of significant injuries to high-profile receiving tight ends (Jermichael Finley, Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Zach Miller, Owen Daniels, and others have all missed time) make gaining any significant knowledge from this case study worth putting on hold until we can observe these weapons at work for a full season.

What we can gather from all this is that the football purists/naysayers of fantasy football are both right and wrong- there is not a discernable correlation at tight end, nor at wide receiver, as a whole, between fantasy production and a player’s position-respective value. Still, there is a great deal to be said about drafting excellent quarterbacks to be your starting fantasy QB, and stud running backs by PFF’s ratings also tend to make for quality options in fantasy lineups. Keep this in mind as you move forward in your fantasy endeavors.

All Featured Tools
Subscriptions

Unlock the 2024 Fantasy Draft Kit, with Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Mock Draft Sim, Rankings & PFF Grades

$24.99/mo
OR
$119.99/yr