This article will take a look at some keys to watch for throughout the fantasy world. This will encompass a plethora of topics throughout the course of the series, from individual and team matchups to sleepers and potential value plays. Let’s take a look at some intriguing points for this coming Sunday.
-Will Baltimore’s offense keep stumbling along, or will it get back on track against a subpar Arizona defense? Joe Flacco has had 2 solid games and 4 subpar games; over his last 3 games, he’s 51 for 102 with 1 passing TD and 3 INTs. Flacco is also one of 3 starting NFL QBs with a negative rating alongside Curtis Painter and Blaine Gabbert (what I’d venture to call unenviable company). His -1.2 rating looks even uglier when you consider the top 3 QBs all have ratings above +43.0. I expect Ray Rice to get back on track in this game, but I would consider Flacco a low-end QB2 at this point. He looks plain bad. On the other side of the coin, Kevin Kolb will continue to be a low-end QB2 until he gets some pass blocking. PFF’s worst unit at -26.8, the Arizona o-line has struggled to keep Kolb upright the entire season. This problem won’t get any better against a hungry Baltimore D. Start Kolb and any Arizona RBs at your own peril this week.
-What’s Adrian Peterson’s over/under for yardage this week? 175? 200? Carolina has our 3rd worst rated run defense, gives up 4.7 yards per carry alongside 133 yards per game on the ground. This is a recipe for a huge game for one of the NFL’s most talented players. However, I’m even more curious to see if Christian Ponder can build on his game last week. For the first time in weeks, the Vikings were an exciting team, and it’s quite a feat nearly beating the defending (undefeated) Super Bowl champs. This game could feature 2 future QB studs in the NFL. I’ll also be curious to see if Ponder keeps targeting Michael Jenkins or if his plethora of targets last week were a fluke. If he sees volume again, consider snatching him up in WR-needy areas.
-If you own the New York Giants defense, you’d need a darn good reason not to start them. Daniel Thomas is out, Brandon Marshall can’t catch, and Matt Moore has the pocket awareness of…Matt Moore. Reggie Bush moves into flex PPR territory with Thomas out, but if the Dolphins are smart, they’ll mix in some Lex Hilliard for the inside-the-tackles jaunts. Don’t be surprised if we finally see Steve Slaton as well, considering Bush was on the injury report this week. I’d also venture to call this a potential breakout game for Mario Manningham after weeks of waiting and pain. He has a plus matchup with Vontae Davis potentially playing hurt or sitting out, and he’s been blessed as the #2 WR on the team after some under-the-radar bonehead moves by Victor Cruz (who’s still startable in deeper leagues).
-If you’re in a league with more than 4 people, Darren Sproles is a must start against the NFL’s worst run defense (I don’t think that’s debatable). I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being the top PPR play this week. Heck, even Pierre Thomas is a solid play with Mark Ingram out. I expect a blowout, I expect a ton of running, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up being another 62-7 rout in favor of the Saints. The only startable players on the Rams side are Brandon Lloyd (A.J. Feeley was smart enough to keep chucking it to him last week) and Steven Jackson, who should see a decent amount of carries until the game is out of hand.
–Roy Helu or Ryan Torain will probably have a nice game against a Bills run defense that’s giving up a grotesque 5.1 yards per carry and has yielded 8 rushing scores on the year. However, which back that will be is anyone’s guess. The theory is that Torain will see early down work and Helu will see changeup/3rd down work, but Shanahanigans always find their way into the mix. Nothing would surprise me at this point; not even signing Clinton Portis off the street or using Brian Orakpo as the workhorse running back. John Beck will have a more difficult go of it than he did last week in my opinion. The Bills pass D has been very opportunistic this year, and Beck’s most trusty target, Santana Moss, is out for at least a month, if not two. Fred Davis could see a big game, as I think he’s better than any of the Redskins WRs from a talent and fantasy perspective. Davis is PFF’s 5th best TE in pass rating, and has more YAC/rec at 7.1 than any other TE in the league with at least 20 catches. The long-awaited TE1 status that so many of us expected Davis to attain has arrived.
–Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders are all top 20 WR options this week. I’m a Patriots fan so nothing truly surprises me with the team any more, but the release of Leigh Bodden and the subsequent placing of Ras-I Dowling on IR combined with Devin McCourty’s awful play means Ben Roethlisberger is in for a feast. This game could easily turn into a shootout, and the following are startable players in most formats: Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ben, the aforementioned WR trio, Heath Miller, and Rashard Mendenhall. That’s a LOT of potential fantasy starters for 1 game. The Patriots pass rush has slowly been improving and I fully expect some hits on Ben, but I don’t think either D is startable over some of the other options out there this week. Enjoy the expected shootout.
-Much like NE/PIT, the Cowboys/Eagles game has the potential to be a shootout. Michael Vick could have a field day against the Dallas defense, but I also expect him to get beat up given his shoddy protection. This could lead to plenty of passes to LeSean McCoy, who’s a must-start as always. I mentioned this in a previous article earlier this week, but Phillip Tanner is a great pickup for deep leaguers – he’s the #2 RB in Dallas this week, and though he won’t see much time, Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray are both injury prone. Should both go down, I’d be entirely comfortable with Tanner as a flex play given the high octane potential of the Dallas offense.