This article will take a look at some keys to watch for throughout the fantasy world. This will encompass a plethora of topics throughout the course of the series, from individual and team matchups to sleepers and potential value plays. Let’s take a look at some intriguing points for this coming Sunday.
-How will John Beck do in his first official start? Beck is known for being more athletic than Rex Grossman, but will he be able to make all the throws asked of him? His sample size against the Eagles was fairly small and he hasn’t played in a game in a few years, so naturally we can expect a bit of rust. The Panthers grade out in the middle of the road for pass rush and pass coverage as a team, so the matchup is about as neutral as it gets from a real-world perspective. However, I expect the Panthers to deploy a plan similar to the Eagles – neutralize the run and force the Redskins QB to throw it. The Panthers grade out as our worst ranked run defense team, so the Redskins would be smart to hit the run game as often as possible. Regardless, unless the Panthers start to blow out the Redskins (which is a distinct possibility), Beck is a low-end QB2 at this point. However, if he uses his athleticism for some run plays, his value becomes much more intriguing. I don’t see a huge downgrade for any of Beck’s receivers such as Santana Moss or Fred Davis. Both will be fine in PPR, although I expect their deep completions to take a hit.
-There are four players I’ll be paying attention to in the Seahawks/Browns game – Charlie Whitehurst, Doug Baldwin, Montario Hardesty, and Greg Little. Whitehurst and Baldwin showed solid rapport, and if Whitehurst has a decent game against the Browns (entirely possible as long as he avoids Joe Haden), Pete Carroll will have a fat QB dilemma on his hands. Baldwin looks like he might have the makings of a solid WR pickup in PPR leagues (if he’s not already gone), so if he builds on that this week, he should be owned universally. On the flipside, Greg Little is also looking like he could be a solid PPR pickup. He should have had a touchdown last week but slipped at the 2 yard line for some reason, and still had a decent game otherwise. Colt McCoy isn’t a good NFL QB by any stretch of the imagination, but at least he’s smart enough to look for his most talented player, who had 11 targets on 52 pass routes last week. Lastly, Montario Hardesty is intriguing if Peyton Hillis can’t go, which is looking likely. Hardesty has stunk up the joint this year en route to a -6.4 overall rating (2nd worst RB in the NFL), and he needs to prove he can be the guy in Cleveland since it’s looking like Hillis is gone in 2012.
-I’ll make this blurb a fairly short one, but for the Broncos/Dolphins matchup, the two obvious points of attention are Tim Tebow and Matt Moore. Tim Tebow is probably owned in your league by now, so I’ll be curious to see how he looks as a passer. I’m selfishly hoping he looks Eric Decker’s way a lot since he’s the de facto WR1 in Denver now, but you never know with a QB like Tebow how good those targets will be. I actually think Matt Moore is a better QB than his stat line from last week indicated. He made some absolutely stupid decisions picking on Darrelle Revis a couple times, but his receivers also had 5 drops, including 2 throws to Brandon Marshall that should have been touchdowns. I’m willing to bet he’ll be a decent QB2 against many teams, considering most teams don’t field Darrelle Revis. It’s also an encouraging sign for Marshall owners that Moore stubbornly threw at him 13 times, and I still think he’s a solid WR2/borderline WR1 in PPR leagues.
-I’m very intrigued to see if Josh Freeman can replicate what he did last week. He’s been a checkdown machine for most of the year, but last week, he tossed 15 balls 10+ yards down the field, which is encouraging for him and his receivers. The Bears field a defense very similar in our metrics to the Saints, so hopefully that trend continues, especially since he’s at home. I still believe Mike Williams is a buy low as a PPR WR3 by the way.
-The Titans need to get Chris Johnson going, and they said they spent their bye week dedicated to improving the run game. While Johnson has an underwhelming -1.0 run rating, he still has the talent to turn it around. Part of the blame is also on his offensive line, which definitely puts good use to the term ‘offensive’. Both of the Titans’ guards have negative run block ratings, while Eugene Amano (their center) grades out as our worst center in the NFL, mainly due to an astoundingly bad -11.2 run rating. Remember, that -11.2 is on only 316 snaps, which isn’t even close to half a year’s worth. If the Titans can get the interior of their line to shape up, Johnson could pay dividends as a nice buy low.
-The Kevin Kolb era isn’t going so well, and the Steelers aren’t exactly the team you want to face coming out of a bye. The Cardinals have PFF’s worst rated pass blocking as a team, and as teams bracket Larry Fitzgerald, Kolb has to flee for his life or chuck the ball up on nearly every play. Kolb has been pressured on a whopping 76 of his 193 dropbacks, or a nearly 40% clip. His completion percentage is a not-so-stellar 50.9% in those situations, and his play under pressure is naturally what’s dragging his PFF rating down. If the Cardinals can solve some of their blocking woes, Kolb and Fitzgerald’s values could shoot upwards, since the talent is clearly there.
–Carson Palmer is going to be very interesting to watch. Will the layoff make him rusty or has it renewed his arm strength? If his arm strength is back, I think this provides a big boost for Jacoby Ford, who is known for being a big play threat. I fully expect the Raiders to run Darren McFadden and Michael Bush a whole lot this week while Palmer figures things out, but knowing Hue Jackson, he’ll let Palmer loose on at least a handful of plays. The Chiefs secondary has taken a hit with Eric Berry on IR as Jon McGraw, Donald Washington, Kendrick Lewis and Sabby Piscitelli have all been severe coverage liabilities this season. My gut tells me Palmer should surface as a QB2 eventually, but this week and next should provide an interesting barometer.
-If I’m Minnesota I don’t throw Christian Ponder right into the fire against an aggressive Packers defense, but hey, easier said than done I suppose. Ponder is surrounded by mediocrity at the receiver position, especially since the coaches seem to refuse to utilize Percy Harvin to the extent he’s capable of. Harvin has a +5.1 rating on the year in only 212 snaps, yet his team has run 379 snaps on offense. I personally believe putting your best and most dynamic receiving threat on the field only 56% of the time seems ludicrous, but again, what do I know right? Ponder can’t be much worse for the Vikings passing game than Donovan McNabb was, but I won’t be surprise if his first start is an ugly one. You should probably start the GB Defense if you own them.
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.