Welcome to the Week 7 edition of the Offensive Matchup Report.
Down below, you’ll find upgrades and downgrades at each of the primary fantasy football positions. After the player analysis, you’ll find that player’s ranking and projection for this weekend.
QB UPGRADE
Texans Matt Schaub vs. Titans
The Titans defense is fresh off a Week 5 performance in which they surrendered five passing scores to the struggling Steelers. They did enter the game with a decent 4:5 TD:INT ratio against, but the Jaguars and Browns were strong in the yardage department vs. them and Colt McCoy put up 350 yards on 61 attempts. As you can see in the chart below, teams are completing passes at will against Tennessee. Only the Colts have a worst rate.
| Def | Com% | Y/C | TD/C | INT/Att | Sack/DB |
| TEN | 10% | -3.3 | 0.1% | 0.5% | -1.2% |
Projection: 26-of-36, 281 yards, 2.1 TD, 1.1 INT
Ranking: QB # 4
Others: Curtis Painter, Carson Palmer, Charlie Whitehurst
QB DOWNGRADE
Chargers Philip Rivers vs. Jets
Through six games, the Jets defense has allowed only three passing touchdowns and has intercepted nine throws. They’ve allowed fewer than 19 completions in four of those games and have racked up 19 sacks. The best performance against them this season was 24-of-33 for 321 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and that came from Tom Brady.
| Def | Com% | Y/C | TD/C | INT/Att | Sack/DB |
| NYJ | -5% | 0.0 | -4.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% |
Projection: 19-of-30, 223 yards, 0.5 TD, 1.5 INT
Ranking: QB # 25
Others: Cam Newton, Matt Hasselbeck, Kevin Kolb
RB UPGRADE
Saints Mark Ingram vs. Colts
Teams are running the ball a ton vs. the Colts this season. No committee of backs has combined for fewer than 23 attempts and they’ve allowed 29+ attempts four times in six games. On three occasions, the opposing backs combined for over 160 yards. They’ve allowed six rushing scores, but four of them did come back in weeks 1-2.
| RUSH | RECEIVING | ||||
| Def | YPC | TD% | YPR | TD% | C/Tgt |
| IND | 0.0 | 1.9% | 1.5 | -2.2% | 1% |
Projection: 15 carries, 58 yards, 1 reception, 6 yards, 0.9 TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 15
Others: Ryan Torain, DeMarco Murray
RB DOWNGRADE
Rams Steven Jackson vs. Cowboys
Through five games, no opposing running back unit has combined for over 84 yards against the Cowboys. The 84-yard performance came from New England last week and was on 21 carries (4.0 YPC). On the year, they’ve allowed 299 rush yards and only one score on 92 carries. Opposing backs have 22 receptions for 209 yards and one touchdown on 29 targets.
| RUSH | RECEIVING | ||||
| Def | YPC | TD% | YPR | TD% | C/Tgt |
| DAL | -1.1 | -1.9% | 0.0 | 2.5% | 0% |
Projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 3 receptions, 26 yards, 0.3 TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 21
Others: Adrian Peterson, Shonn Greene, Jonathan Stewart
WR UPGRADE
Saints Marques Colston vs. Colts
The Colts have already allowed eight touchdowns to wideouts this season. It’s worth noting that four of them did come in one game, but it was Matt Cassel and the Chiefs who did the damage. That doesn’t say much about the Colts pass defense. Through six games, they’ve allowed at least one touchdown to a wideout in all but one game (Browns, Week 2). Opposing wideouts have accrued 76 receptions on 104 targets and have been over the 190 yard mark three times.
| Def | YPR | TD% | C/Tgt |
| IND | 1.2 | 3.2% | 14% |
Projection: 4.7 receptions, 70 yards, 0.5 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 8
Others: Brandon Marshall, Houston wideouts, Greg Little
WR DOWNGRADE
Jets Santonio Holmes vs. Chargers
You may not have realized it, but the Chargers have been very dominant against opposing wideouts this season. They’ve allowed only two scores to wide receivers over five games, and allowed 11 or fewer receptions in four of those games. It’s worth noting that they did allow 255 yards on 17 receptions to wideouts against the Patriots, but none were able to find the endzone. The other four games were against the Vikings, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Broncos. Those aren’t the most impressive passing attacks, but the four sets of wideouts combined for only 26 receptions and 275 yards on 52 targets.
| Def | YPR | TD% | C/Tgt |
| SD | -2.1 | -3.7% | -3% |
Projection: 2.6 receptions, 32 yards, 0.2 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 53
Others: Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Sidney Rice
TE UPGRADE
Bucs Kellen Winslow vs. Bears
The Bears have allowed 6+ receptions to Tight Ends in each of their last five games and surrendered five in Week 1. In fact, tight ends have hauled in exactly seven receptions in four of the team’s last five games and five scores over the team’s last four games. Overall, opposing tight ends have 39 receptions and 445 yards on 50 targets.
| Def | YPR | TD% | C/Tgt |
| CHI | -0.8 | 5.2% | 14% |
Projection: 5 receptions, 46 yards, 0.5 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 5
Others: Tony Gonzalez, Heath Miller, Visanthe Shiancoe
TE DOWNGRADE
Cowboys Jason Witten vs. Rams
Tight Ends haven’t done much against the Rams this season. In three of their five games, the opposing tight ends racked up only one reception. In the other two games, the Rams defense gave up five receptions in each game. Overall, we’re talking about 13 receptions and 135 yards on 25 targets and zero scores through five games.
| Def | YPR | TD% | C/Tgt |
| SL | -3.1 | -8.2% | -12% |
Projection: 4.7 receptions, 55 yards, 0.1 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 7
Others: Antonio Gates, Jared Cook, Dustin Keller
Note: You'll notice a small chart under each player. Shown are the defensive rates I'm using to create projections for each player. The numbers shown are how well or poorly a defense has done in each category in 2011. For example, assume that under Tony Romo we see a 1.6 Y/C for the opposing defense. This means that opposing quarterbacks are enjoying a 1.6 higher Yards-per-completion mark over their season average when facing the Patriots.
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