Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago Bears defense
Aaron Rodgers has lived up to his preseason hype as one of the best fantasy quarterbacks and shouldn't disappoint in Week 17. The Bears have nothing to play for, except for trying to keep the Packers out of the playoffs. Rodgers looks fully recovered from his most recent concussion and didn't miss a beat last week against the Giants. Rodgers has taken 70 deep shots (20+ yards) in the 13 games he's played this season, an average of over five a game. The Bears defense has given up 36 and 34 points in two of the past three weeks, so Rodgers is set up nicely for another huge outing.
Recommendation: Upgrade.
Josh Freeman vs. New Orleans Saints defense
If you have Josh Freeman and started him last week, kudos to you because it probably led you to a league championship. This week, however, I'm downgrading Freeman for one simple reason: last week was an anomaly in his season. Freeman has thrown at least one touchdown in every game except for one this season, but hasn't thrown for more than two except for last week. Excluding their game against San Francisco, the Buccaneers haven't scored 20+ points against a PFF rated defense higher than 16th. The Saints certainly fall into the “poor defense” category, with a -21.5 rated defense, but they shut out the Buccaneers when they played them earlier in the season.
Recommendation: Downgrade.
Jamaal Charles vs. Oakland Raiders defense
Jamaal Charles is a guy that ProFootballFocus has liked for a long time, and for good reason. His 6.4 YPC average blows everybody else out of the water. Charles has the second most yards in the league behind Arian Foster while seeing 248 less snaps than Foster. As we've said time and again, the only thing holding Charles back is his coaching staff. Charles has seen less than 50% of the Chiefs' snaps in the last two weeks but did score three touchdowns in those games. He's an upgrade simply because of his threat to score any time he touches the ball.
Recommendation: Upgrade.
Peyton Hillis vs. Pittsburgh Steelers defense
For starters, you need to keep an eye on any injury updates with Hillis. He missed his third straight practice today but Eric Mangini is hopeful he will play. Even if he does play, he could be in for a rough outing. Hillis hasn't found the endzone in four straight weeks and the Steelers boast a 76.6 rated run defense. The Steelers are playing for a first-round bye and the Browns have a -42.6 run block rating. All of these factors make me believe Hillis won't be a solid fantasy back in Week 17.
Recommendation: Downgrade.
Kenny Britt vs. Indianapolis Colts defense
Britt was on fire before his hamstring injury, notching seven touchdowns in five games before he went down. His first week back from the injury was relatively quite, but in the two weeks since then he is back to early season form. Everyone wondered whether the addition of Randy Moss would mean less of Kenny Britt once he returned. We all know how that one turned out. In the past three weeks, Britt has seen his snap count go from 74% to 84% to 90%. Start him with confidence this weekend.
Recommendation: Upgrade.
Mike Wallace vs. Cleveland Browns defense
When these two teams played back in Week 6 Wallace had three catches for 90 yards and one touchdown. Interestingly, rookie Joe Haden wasn't put on Wallace in that game so that's something to keep an eye on this weekend. Wallace and DeSean Jackson are the only two receivers in the league who have a YPC average over 20. His 64.8 catch percentage is exceptional considering he's a deep threat receiver. He is the worst blocking wideout (with 25% of teams snaps) in the league, but for fantasy purposes he has become a must start every week.
Recommendation: Upgrade.
Other Upgrades:
Rashard Mendenhall vs. Cleveland Browns defense
Matt Forte vs. Green Bay Packers defense
Matt Ryan vs. Carolina Panthers defense
Other Downgrades:
Mike Williams (SEA) vs. Saint Louis Rams defense
T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. Cincinnati Bengals defense
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. New York Jets defense
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