Fantasy: Week 10 Offensive Matchups

Welcome to the Week 10 edition of the Offensive Matchup Report.

Down below, you’ll find upgrades and downgrades at each of the primary fantasy football positions. After the player analysis, you’ll find that player’s ranking and projection for this weekend.

QB UPGRADE

Jets Mark Sanchez vs. Patriots

I feel like I should change the ‘QB Upgrade’ header to ‘QB Facing New England’. Another week, another poor effort against the pass for the Patriots. Week 9 opponent Eli Manning actually struggled to rack up yards in the first half, but still came away with two scores and 250 pass yards. New England has now allowed two passing scores and/or 300+ pass yards six times in eight games this season. Back in Week 5, Sanchez managed 166 yards, 2 scores, and 0 INTs on just 26 attempts.

Projection: 19-of-33, 230 yards, 1.5 TD, 0.8 INT
Ranking: QB # 14

Others: Tim Tebow, John Beck

QB DOWNGRADE

Patriots Tom Brady vs. Jets

On the opposite side of the field, we have Tom Brady as our downgrade for this week. The Jets continue to shut down the pass, holding Ryan Fitzpatrick to a 15-of-29, 191 yard, 1 TD, 2 INT day in Week 9. On the season, they enjoy a 5:13 TD:INT ratio and have allowed only three passing touchdowns since giving up two to Tony Romo in Week 1. Back in Week 5, Brady did record one of the two 300-yard games the Jets have allowed this season, but his 1:1 TD:INT ratio was far from Fantasy gold. Brady was also sacked four times in that game.

Projection: 23-of-36, 294 yards, 1.7 TD, 1.1 INT
Ranking: QB # 10

Others: Josh Freeman, Tarvaris Jackson

RB UPGRADE

Chargers Mike Tolbert vs. Raiders

The return of Ryan Mathews to the lineup Thursday night certainly hurts Tolbert’s Fantasy appeal, but he still holds a Top 20 spot in the rankings thanks to a favorable matchup. The Raiders have allowed opposing running back units to accrue 100+ yards on five different occasions this season. In fact, three of those games saw them allow over 180 rushing yards and two scores to opposing backs. That includes their most recent game against Denver in Week 9 when they allowed 262 rush yards and two scores on 35 carries when you add Tim Tebow’s rushing numbers into the mix. Tolbert does quite a bit of damage via the passing game, so it’s also worth pointing out that Oakland has allowed three separate 90+ yard receiving days to running backs. However, they all came earlier in the season. Over their last three games, backs have combined for only 23 yards on six receptions.

Projection: 7 carries, 30 yards, 0.5 TD, 3 receptions, 38 yards, 0.1 TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 18

Others: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jonathan Stewart

RB DOWNGRADE

Giants Brandon Jacobs vs. 49ers

Ahmad Bradshaw will likely sit out again this week, which means another big workload for Jacobs. Unfortunately for his owners, the tough San Francisco run defense is on the horizon. The 49ers have yet to allow a rushing touchdown or a 100-yard rushing day to opposing running backs and only two units have reached 80 yards against them. They did allow a ridiculous 16 receptions and 124 yards on 19 targets to tailbacks (mostly Roy Helu) in Week 9, but that was more a product of John Beck not throwing down the field than anything else.

Projection: 15 carries, 47 yards, 0.6 TD, 3 receptions, 24 yards, 0.1 TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 19

Others: Adrian Peterson, LeGarrette Blount

WR UPGRADE

Vikings Michael Jenkins vs. Packers

Although a lot of this can be attributed to the Packers playing with a lead most of the time, wide receivers tend to have success against Green Bay this season. Five times the Packers have allowed a wide receiver unit to reach the 200 yard mark. Additionally, wideouts have scored 11 touchdowns in eight games against Green Bay this season. The Vikings wide receivers were held to just eight receptions on 19 targets when these two teams met in Week 7, but they still managed 174 yards and a touchdown. Jenkins is in the best position to benefit.

Projection: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 48 yards, 0.3 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 42

Others: Santonio Holmes, Mike Thomas

WR DOWNGRADE

Rams Brandon Lloyd vs. Browns

Led by Joe Haden, the Browns have had success against wide receivers this season. In eight games, they’ve allowed more than 135 receiving yardage to wideouts only once and have held four of those units under 100 yards. In total, wide receivers have scored only three touchdowns against Cleveland this season. Last week, they held the Texans’ wideouts to three catches on four targets for 33 yards.

Projection: 9 targets, 4 receptions, 56 yards, 0.2 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 35

Others: Deion Branch, Damian Williams

TE UPGRADE

Jets Dustin Keller vs. Patriots

The Patriots seemed to be doing pretty well against the tight end early in the year, but it wasn’t as much the quality of defense as it was the quantity (or lack thereof). Teams simply hadn’t been targeting the tight end much when facing New England early in the year, but that changed over the last two weeks. The Steelers and Giants tight end units combined for 12 receptions, 159 yards, and a score on 17 targets. On the year, they’ve allowed five 60+ yard days to tight ends and three touchdowns.

Projection: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 50 yards, 0.3 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 13

Others: Visanthe Shiancoe

TE DOWNGRADE

Bucs Kellen Winslow vs. Texans

Aside of a 107 yard, 1 TD game by Jimmy Graham and the Saints’ tight ends backs in Week 3, the Texans have been pretty strong against the TE position this season. No other unit has reached 50 yards and they’ve allowed a total of two scores to tight ends on the year. If you remove the Saints game, they’ve allowed 18 receptions, 205 yards, and 1 score on 37 targets to tight ends this season.

Projection: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 39 yards, 0.2 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 19

Others: Ben Watson, Aaron Hernandez