Collaborative effort of Bryan Fontaine and Steve Wyremski
Dynasty leagues are often won on the waiver wire. Think about it. Guys like Arian Foster, Pierre Garcon, Marques Colston, Jerricho Cotchery, Ryan Grant, and Wes Welker were all players who, at one point, were not selected in dynasty startups and sat un-rostered. They were all plucked from the waiver wire right after their opportunities increased and they blew up, catapulting countless fantasy teams to championships. You need to be ahead of that curve and pick up the Arian Fosters before your league mates do. That’s why it’s so important to track the lesser-known players who are quietly generating a buzz and/or who will be presented with an opportunity in the near future. As dynasty leagues have various roster sizes, we decided to reach deep and select our top 10 players from a pool of those players with less than 100 snaps in the 2010 regular season. Here are our favorites:
RB James Starks – Packers (59 snaps) After a strong playoff run in 2010 during which he started each of the Packers’ playoff games, James Starks is now a known commodity entering his second season in the NFL. The most notable stat from the 2010 playoffs is that he carried the ball more than 20 times in 3 of the 4 playoff games, shed 10 tackles and lost no fumbles while proving that he’s gained the trust of the Packers’ coaching staff. Forget Ryan Grant who is 28 years old and approaching the RB deterioration age of 30. Starks is the long-term solution in Green Bay as a solid all-around back and will certainly get the opportunity to prove that in 2011. Don’t forget that a member of the Packers’ staff pinned him as a “poor man’s Adrian Peterson”. That may be aggressive, but he’s certainly a capable grinding back. The recent drafting of Alex Green is to complement Starks, not replace him. It’s a perfect time to acquire him cheap with a dynasty average draft position after RB#25 as the Packers transition the lead back role from Grant to Starks. (Wyremski)
RB Joe McKnight – Jets (72 snaps) If you watched Joe McKnight’s struggles on Hard Knocks this past summer, you would be hard pressed to believe he is the same running back that carried the ball 32 times for 158 yards in a game last season. It is important to note that McKnight’s breakout game came in Week 17 versus Buffalo as the Jets were resting many of their regulars, but he showed some surprising tough running on his way to 91 running yards after contact (2.8 per attempt). McKnight is a terrific high-upside player to stash and could pay off in a big way in 2012. (Fontaine)
RB Deji Karim – Jaguars (70 snaps) This 2010 sixth round running back played sparingly behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings but he showed glimpses of his future potential in Week 5 at Buffalo (15 att., 70 yards) and Week 17 at Houston (7 att., 52 yards). Karim, like Jones-Drew, is a stout and compact back that broke 3 tackles and averaged 3.1 yards after contact in those two contests. The uncertainty regarding the health of Jones-Drew boosts the value of Karim in deeper leagues. (Fontaine)
WR Jaymar Johnson – Vikings (0 snaps) Another receiver who was placed on injured reserve; Johnson suffered a broken thumb in week 1 of the preseason and healed faster than expected despite being placed on IR. He’s training with Larry Fitzgerald this off-season, like he did back in 2009 and 2010, and continues to show improvement. Former Vikings’ Hall of Fame WR Chris Carter (who attended the Fitzgerald workouts in the past) said that Johnson “could start for the Vikings” and praised his speed, dedication and work ethic. He’s consistently worked to improve his game and with Bernard Berrian unlikely to return, Sidney Rice an unrestricted free agent and Harvin’s migraine issues, it presents Johnson with an interesting opportunity in 2011. Assuming he at least replaces Berrian, he should be looking at 50 targets or more. Just keep an eye on Stephen Burton throughout camp who will challenge Johnson for playing time. (Wyremski)
WR Antonio Brown – Steelers (69 snaps) Antonio Brown slid to the sixth round of the 2010 NFL Draft despite declaring as a junior from Central Michigan. Scouts knew that Brown had speed and play-making ability but wasn’t given the opportunity to showcase it often in the short passing attack of the Chippewas. Brown didn’t get much of an opportunity to play last season and only saw significant time from Week 14 forward. What we did see is that when Brown was on the field, Ben Roethlisberger targeted him 27.54% of the time. Brown had the highest target rate per snap of any wide receiver in 2010 (Demaryius Thomas was second, 22.16%). Brown is worth a roster spot as Hines Ward’s performance continues to decline. (Fontaine)
WR Marcus Easley – Bills (0 snaps) One of my favorite “under the radar” rookies from 2010, Marcus Easley’s season ended before it started after being placed on injured reserve in the preseason with a knee injury. Other than Steve Johnson, the Bills’ offense is filled with underachieving and inexperienced receivers providing Easley with the opportunity to prove he deserves playing time. His biggest competition is the inconsistent Lee Evans who posted a catch percentage of less than 55% and less than 650 yards in each of his last two seasons, with 2010 cut short by 3 games with an injury. The Bills’ 2010 4th round pick has prototypical size for a WR, speed and the opportunity for playing time in Buffalo, which makes Easley a perfect player to grab off the wire and stash. (Wyremski)
WR Adrian Arrington – Saints (44 snaps) Adrian Arrington, a 2008 7th round pick, has not had nearly the same impact and opportunity as his Michigan teammate Mario Manningham. After spending his first season on injured reserve and 2009 on the practice squad, Arrington was finally activated for his first NFL game in Week 17 against Tampa Bay. He finished the day with 7 receptions (9 targets) for 79 yards, with 29 yards after catch. Interestingly enough, Arrington was in the slot for 80% of his snaps, and at his size at 6-foot-3 could present future match-up problems for opposing defenses. Arrington’s path to playing time is not any clearer heading into 2011, but remains a player to keep an eye on in deeper leagues. (Fontaine)
WR Dorin Dickerson – Texans (23 snaps) As he’s a converted WR from TE, Dickerson is a raw player that needs time to develop at the WR position. He knows that and so does the coaching staff. Coach Gary Kubiak acknowledged that soon after drafting Dickerson in the 7th round of the 2010 NFL draft and that’s why he only saw 23 snaps in 2010. The Texans ranked #5 in passes thrown in 2010, which is encouraging if Dickerson can get some increased snaps. All signs point to Dickerson getting more opportunities with the recent reports that the Texans are “excited about the development” of Dickerson based on team practices and Coach Kubiak saying early on that, “he’s got the body and the tools to be a one or two [receiver] in this league.” Don’t forget that he also has one of the best WRs in the league as a mentor in Andre Johnson. Even if Jacoby Jones returns, he’s already logged four seasons of inconsistency highlighted by 7 dropped passes (or 9% of his targets) in 2010, as well as dropping 14% of his targets in 2009. The staff loves Dickerson, so he’s going to see the field sooner or later and that’s more than can be said about a lot of players with less than 100 snaps in the last year. (Wyremski)
WR Taylor Price – Patriots (23 snaps) Taylor Price, the 90th selection in the 2010 NFL Draft, played sparingly in his rookie year and was not activated for a game until Week 17 against Miami. Price only played in 23 snaps and ran 10 pass routes but hauled in 3 receptions on 4 targets for 41 yards. Price is faces another uphill battle in 2011 for playing time with Welker, Branch, Tate and Edelman ahead of him on the depth chart. Price has great size (6’00”, 212 lbs) and speed (4.41) that deserves a look in deeper leagues. (Fontaine)
WR Carlton Mitchell – Browns (12 snaps) Everyone knew that Carlton Mitchell was a raw prospect and project WR when the Browns drafted him in the 6th round of the 2010 NFL draft. That didn’t stop most dynasty owners from dropping him mid-season. Patience! Not many rookie receivers produce in their rookie season, let alone a project WR. Mitchell played 12 snaps and was targeted once, but didn’t record a catch in 2010. With unimpressive play from the Browns’ WRs in 2010 from Massaqoui (-7.2 PFF rating), Chansi Stuckey (-7.2), Brian Robiskie (-4.0) and Josh Cribbs (-3.4), Mitchell is expected to get an opportunity to see increased time beginning in the preseason even with the addition of Greg Little to the Browns’ receiving corp. He’s worth a shot to hold and watch through the preseason. (Wyremski)
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