What can we reasonably expect from a rookie? Every season a few are predicted for stardom only to fall completely flat on expectations, while others make unexpectedly significant contributions. Last week, we examined quarterbacks and running backs in an attempt to predict a future rookie's fantasy impact at those positions. This week, we move on to wide receivers, tight ends, and the offensive line.
In my quest to create better auction values, I was left with a glaring problem in my calculations: rookies. Because my calculations take into account past seasons in conjunction with future projections, I did not have any data to plug in for the next crop of greenhorns. I could just pick a rookie from the previous season and use his statistics, but that would not go far enough. My solution was to create one for each position. In that vein, I have compiled statistics for relevant rookies at the skill positions and offensive line over the past three seasons.
A few notes about the data I have compiled:
- Data has been culled for the past three seasons, from 2008 to 2010. My main reasons for this are twofold:
- The game is constantly evolving. Four years ago, there was no doubt that RB was the most valuable fantasy position. Nowadays? It is certainly debatable. Thus, the data from the most recent seasons is far more relevant.
- PFF data only goes back to 2008, when the site was created. It is only fair that we do not speculate about years prior.
- Each position has several arbitrary thresholds that must be met for data inclusion.Without these thresholds, The Rookie's numbers are impacted significantly by less playing time or aberrations.
- Once the irrelevant players are removed, we take the average of the remaining, relevant player data and create The Rookie for that position.
- On the offensive line, the data is generalized (i.e. not position-specific) to minimize complexity. The Rookie Offensive Lineman can be inserted at any position. The offensive line rookie was important to create because my auction values take OL ratings into account. Plus it was just plain interesting to see how they performed as rookies.
- For the purposes of this article, fantasy points are limited to standard scoring.
As always, let us look at the data:
Wide Receiver
Thresholds: 400 snaps, 85 points, 12 games
| Year | Name | Team | Snaps | Rating | Targets | Points | PPS | Games |
| 2010 | Anthony Armstrong | WAS | 784 | -5.1 | 78 | 103.1 | 0.13 | 15 |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | 431 | 2.7 | 71 | 102.1 | 0.24 | 12 | |
| Mike Williams | TB | 955 | 4.5 | 122 | 158.4 | 0.17 | 16 | |
| Jacoby Ford | OAK | 577 | -3.6 | 50 | 102.5 | 0.18 | 16 | |
| 2009 | Hakeem Nicks | NYG | 531 | 6.6 | 70 | 115.8 | 0.22 | 14 |
| Mike Wallace | PIT | 638 | 2.9 | 71 | 114.4 | 0.18 | 16 | |
| Austin Collie | IND | 731 | 2.1 | 85 | 109.7 | 0.15 | 16 | |
| Jeremy Maclin | PHI | 745 | 1.2 | 86 | 99.5 | 0.13 | 15 | |
| Kenny Britt | TEN | 637 | 4.6 | 70 | 86.1 | 0.14 | 16 | |
| Percy Harvin | MIN | 521 | 11.3 | 86 | 140.5 | 0.27 | 15 | |
| 2008 | Eddie Royal | DEN | 862 | 1.5 | 127 | 138.9 | 0.16 | 15 |
| DeSean Jackson | PHI | 750 | -1.4 | 115 | 119.8 | 0.16 | 16 | |
| Donnie Avery | SL | 675 | 2 | 99 | 98.3 | 0.15 | 15 | |
| The Rookie | 680 | 2.3 | 87 | 114.5 | 0.17 | 15 |
As you can see, where 2008 was the year of the running back in the NFL draft, 2009 was the year of the receiver. Wide receiver is the most unpredictable of positions for rookies. Mike A. Williams had a great season for Tampa Bay, but it only highlights the annual problem with rookie wide receivers: you never know which one is going to break out. Last year it was Williams, despite teammate Arrelious Benn getting much of the press in the pre-season. Percy Harvin was better than Michael Crabtree in 2009, and Eddie Royal came out of nowhere to lead rookie wideouts in 2008.
The Rookie would come in as the 33rd-ranked WR in standard leagues with 114.5 points this past season, which is good enough for a borderline or back-end WR3 depending on your league size and settings. His scoring output is just ahead of the injury-plagued Austin Collie and quarterback-plagued Crabtree. His points-per-snap figure comes in just slightly better, though, on par with the likes of Williams, Wes Welker, Marques Colston, and Stevie Johnson at 0.17. Again, the trouble here is that rookies tend to play less snaps because they generally are not the WR1 or WR2 on their own team. If you are going to gamble on a rookie wide receiver, increase your odds of success by targeting a rookie that figures to be a starter for their team. Mike Williams was a fantasy success largely because he was on the field for 955 snaps.
What does this mean for your fantasy team? First thing's first: stay away from the hype. The pre-season games are a great way for rookies to make their way onto fantasy rosters when they have no business being there. Unless that first-year is starting on their own team, there are likely many other more palatable options for you at the position. Let the other owners get suckered into paying good money for an average player. If you have filled your starting lineup with quality wideouts, and you are low on cash, gambling with rookies on your bench may be a decent option.
Here are the notable receivers who missed the cut:
| Year | Name | Team | Snaps | Rating | Targets | Points | PPS | Games |
| 2010 | Arrelious Benn | TB | 360 | 7.6 | 37 | 55 | 0.15 | 15 |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 167 | 3.3 | 37 | 36.4 | 0.22 | 10 | |
| 2009 | Michael Crabtree | SF | 624 | 2.1 | 82 | 72.5 | 0.12 | 11 |
| Johnny Knox | CHI | 508 | -1.7 | 75 | 84.7 | 0.17 | 15 |
Tight End
Thresholds: 300 snaps, 10 games, 40 points
| Year | Name | Team | Snaps | Rating | Targets | Points | PPS | Games |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski | NE | 794 | 12.5 | 57 | 112.6 | 0.14 | 16 |
| Aaron Hernandez | NE | 491 | 4.1 | 64 | 97 | 0.2 | 14 | |
| Tony Moeaki | KC | 929 | 9.4 | 65 | 73.6 | 0.08 | 15 | |
| Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 821 | -14.3 | 76 | 71.1 | 0.09 | 15 | |
| 2009 | Brandon Pettigrew | DET | 537 | -4.7 | 52 | 46.6 | 0.09 | 11 |
| 2008 | Dustin Keller | NYJ | 517 | 5.3 | 74 | 71.5 | 0.14 | 16 |
| Martellus Bennett | DAL | 390 | -2.5 | 26 | 52.3 | 0.13 | 16 | |
| John Carlson | SEA | 716 | -3.3 | 77 | 92.7 | 0.13 | 16 | |
| The Rookie | 649 | 0.8 | 61 | 77.2 | 0.12 | 15 |
The statistical thresholds for rookie tight ends were nearly waived for the same reason as quarterback – there is not a very large sample size – but there are plenty of blocking tight ends or small sample sizes that would significantly impact The Rookie's fantasy numbers if we removed the floor altogether. Jimmy Graham, for example, held the league's best PPS at 0.28, but played just 237 snaps. At any rate, tight end is a relatively easy position to forecast for rookies: stay away. Although Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both had great rookie seasons, they are the exception. They also each alternated with great/poor fantasy performances, so they were not the most consistent of options.
Incidentally, there were only two noteworthy omissions:
| Year | Name | Team | Snaps | Rating | Targets | Points | PPS | Games |
| 2010 | Jimmy Graham | NO | 237 | 3.3 | 42 | 65.9 | 0.28 | 15 |
| 2008 | Jermichael Finley | GB | 87 | -0.7 | 12 | 13.5 | 0.16 | 14 |
The Rookie's fantasy output would rank him 16th in the league this past season, sandwiched between Kevin Boss and Anthony Fasano, two names that do not exactly elicit fantasy excitement. The only reason to draft a rookie tight end is if you are into backing up your tight end position. Even then, do not waste more than a few bucks on this experiment.
Offensive Line
Thresholds: 300 snaps
| Year | Name | Position | Team | Snaps | Rating | Pass | Screen | Rush | Penalty |
| 2010 | Zane Beadles | G | DEN | 523 | 6.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Mike Iupati | G | SF | 988 | 9.6 | -2.6 | 1.5 | 9.1 | 1.6 | |
| John Jerry | G | MIA | 633 | -7.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | -8.8 | -0.3 | |
| Zane Beadles | T | DEN | 419 | -13.3 | -8.6 | 0.5 | -5.8 | 0.6 | |
| Bryan Bulaga | T | GB | 851 | -24.6 | -12.7 | 1 | -9.3 | -3.6 | |
| Anthony Davis | T | SF | 1011 | -26.6 | -17 | 1 | -7.3 | -3.3 | |
| Russell Okung | T | SEA | 556 | -2.6 | -0.2 | 0 | -2.8 | 0.4 | |
| Rodger Saffold | T | SL | 1068 | -12.4 | -3.8 | 0 | -6.1 | -2.5 | |
| Maurkice Pouncey | C | PIT | 1009 | -4.2 | -8.1 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | |
| J.D. Walton | C | DEN | 1086 | -15.8 | -6.6 | 5 | -11.5 | -2.7 | |
| 2009 | Alex Mack | C | CLV | 1016 | 19.6 | 0.6 | 2 | 15.2 | 1.8 |
| Antoine Caldwell | G | HST | 362 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -1.6 | 1.9 | |
| Louis Vasquez | G | SD | 854 | 6.1 | -1.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.5 | |
| William Beatty | T | NYG | 385 | -0.1 | -2.7 | -1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | |
| Eugene Monroe | T | JAX | 895 | -4.5 | -12.4 | -0.5 | 7.1 | 1.3 | |
| Michael Oher | T | BLT | 1067 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 8.5 | -2.7 | |
| Jason Smith | T | SL | 339 | 0.2 | -1.4 | 0 | -0.1 | 1.7 | |
| 2008 | Chilo Rachal | G | SF | 418 | -0.1 | -1 | 0.5 | -1.7 | 2.1 |
| Jeremy Zuttah | G | TB | 417 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0 | 5.4 | -1.1 | |
| Sam Baker | T | ATL | 341 | -3.2 | -1.4 | 0.5 | -3.3 | 1 | |
| Gosder Cherilus | T | DET | 812 | -14.2 | -2.6 | 0 | -8.2 | -3.4 | |
| Jake Long | T | MIA | 1001 | 20.1 | 6.8 | 0 | 13.1 | 0.2 | |
| Jeff Otah | T | CAR | 681 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0 | 5.3 | -0.7 | |
| Ryan Clady | T | DEN | 1079 | -0.3 | -3 | -0.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | |
| Duane Brown | T | HST | 859 | -22.9 | -19.6 | 2.5 | -6 | 0.2 | |
| Anthony Collins | T | CIN | 380 | -6.5 | -3 | 0.5 | -3.2 | -0.8 | |
| Jamey Richard | C | IND | 356 | -5.5 | -2.3 | -1 | -2.4 | 0.2 | |
| The Rookie | 719 | -2.9 | -3.5 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
While the offensive line generally does not score any fantasy points, it is certainly a deciding factor in how many points the skill players score, particularly quarterbacks and running backs. As part of my endeavor to create more meaningful auction values, I decided to factor in cumulative PFF offensive line ratings. This means I had to create The Rookie on the offensive line in order to plug him in for draftees along each team's OL.
As you can see in the chart above, rookie offensive linemen are wildly unpredictable. Even so, The Rookie carries relatively average ratings, which means the cumulative offensive line ratings of any given team will not be significantly impacted by rookie additions.
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