The IDP Breakdown is a weekly feature column that goes game by game and looks at all of the key matchups to help you identify big value plays, some not-so-obvious starts, and players to avoid. Analysis is based in part on Jeff Ratcliffe's weekly projections for the defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs.
San Diego @ New York Jets
San Diego hasn’t exact been the go-to team for IDPs this season, and I expect that pattern to continue this week against the Jets. Yes, Eric Weddle has been solid, averaging close to five solos a game and giving owners some big play upside. I would look to better options this week, though, as the Jets have given up the third least fantasy points to opposing DBs. I would also be hesitant starting either Donald Butler or Takeo Spikes. The Jets run game just hasn’t materialized this season, so there may not be enough tackles to go around, and Butler may still be off the field in the nickel packages. The one player I do like for the Chargers is Shaun Phillips (+12.4), who currently sits as the fourth highest rated 3-4 OLB. On the season, Phillips has only converted one of his 13 QB interruptions for a sack, but he’s facing a Jets team who, despite their win last week, looks to be trending downward on offense. Mark Sanchez is getting little help from his receivers or the run game, and was sacked twice by LBs last week. Get Phillips in your lineup in big play formats as a sneaky LB3 play.
The Chargers have been extremely friendly to opposing defenders this season. They currently give up the most fantasy points per game to opposing IDPs and rank in the top five in points yielded to each of the three defensive levels. Shutdown corners like Darrelle Revis typically do not translate into IDP studs. But last week, Revis flashed his big play ability and rewarded owners with a monster pick-six. This week, he’ll likely be blanketing Vincent Jackson for most of the afternoon and should have his opportunity to score some points. Though his tackle totals will never be high, he does have DB3+ value in big play formats. Another player who should benefit from the Chargers boost in David Harris, who posted a disappointing two solos against a Miami team that has not been friendly to opposing LBs. Look for Harris to rebound this week and give you LB2 production in all formats.
Seattle @ Cleveland
Kam Chancellor has been one of the big stories this season in IDP leagues. Though he did miss Week 4 due to injury, he has racked up 23 solos, four passes defensed, two picks, and two forced fumbles on the season. Not only that, but he has also graded out positively in each of his four games this season for a combined +9.0. He’s an every week DB1 regardless of matchup. Cleveland has given up the third least fantasy points per game to opposing LBs, so this may not be the week to trust in David Hawthorne. With Peyton Hillis likely out, the Browns may again turn to the passing game. In the first three weeks of the season, Colt McCoy attempted 101 passes. He has thrown 100 times in the Browns last two games. This means good things for Earl Thomas and Brandon Browner. If you’re desperate at CB, I would also take a look at Walter Thurmond III. Marcus Trufant was place on IR this week, so Thurmond will get the start and should see plenty of action. That being said, I wouldn’t want to rely on him as anything more than a low-end DB3 play in deep leagues.
Seattle has given up 12 sacks to opposing defensive linemen this season. Regardless of who is at QB for the Seahawks, get your Browns DLs in your lineup. Jabaal Sheard, Ahtyba Rubin, Phil Taylor, and Jayme Mitchell should have a field day against a Seattle offensive line that currently rates 31st in pass blocking efficiency. So far this season, T.J. Ward has not produced the gaudy numbers that we saw from him in 2010. This is due in part to the emergence of D’Qwell Jackson as an every week LB1, but it is also due to the Browns transition from 3-4 to 4-3. Some are leaving Ward for dead, but I recommend that you hold onto him. This may not be the week where we see him bust out, but I do believe we will still get solid numbers from him this season. Seattle is not the best matchup for Ward, so you may want to look to other options at DB, but scoop him up if someone in your league dropped him.
Atlanta @ Detroit
The Lions have given up nine sacks to opposing defensive linemen, but they currently yield the fourth least fantasy points to the position. This is due in large part to their downfield passing attack, which has limited tackling opportunities for opposing DLs. It’s a good idea to keep John Abraham and Ray Edwards on your bench in tackle heavy and balanced leagues. And considering that the Lions offensive line has held opposing defensive linemen to zero sacks in three of the first six weeks, I would lean towards benching them in big play formats as well. The Lions have been much more fantasy friendly to LBs and DBs. I don’t need to tell you that you’re starting Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon. Atlanta does pose an interesting dilemma at safety, however. William Moore was pegged for a breakout in the preseason. Though he hasn’t played poorly (he has an overall grade of +2.7), Thomas DeCoud leads the Falcons DBs with 31 solo tackles. While DeCoud is the free safety, he’s had more tackling opportunities than Moore due to the play of Lofton and Weatherspoon. DeCoud should again see these opportunities in this one and makes a nice bye week DB2 in all formats.
It looks like Justin Durant will return for the Lions this weekend, which will effectively end DeAndre Levy’s little run of fantasy production. Levy is not someone to drop just yet, but if the Lions go back to the snap distribution they displayed earlier in the season, his value is very limited. After giving up nine sacks to opposing defensive linemen in the first two games, the Falcons have yielded just three in the last four games. That’s bad news if you’re a Kyle Vanden Bosch or Cliff Avril owner. You may want to look to other options. I wouldn’t go as far as to say the same about Ndamukong Suh. Despite his having just two sacks on the season, he’s the type of player who could explode on any given Sunday. You drafted him to play him, so don’t second-guess yourself.
Chicago @ Tampa Bay
The once vaunted Bears defense currently grades out as the third lowest rated this season. In fact, Brian Urlacher (+5.1) and Lance Briggs (+1.5) are the only starters on defense who currently grade out higher than +1.0. But the Bears still have been productive from an IDP standpoint. Julius Peppers recorded two sacks on six interruptions against the Vikings last week, and looked good in the process despite being on the injury list earlier in the week. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay team who gives up the least fantasy points to opposing defensive linemen. I still think you have to play him, but I would temper your expectations. This also means that you likely need to look elsewhere if you have been relying on Israel Idonije as a spot start DL during the bye weeks. Tim Jenning’s early season tackle production has regressed over the last three games, and Charles Tillman has reemerged as the Bears CB to own. Expect this trend to continue moving forward, making Tillman a borderline DB1 in tackle heavy formats and Jennings borderline droppable in all but the deepest of leagues.
It was worth the wait for Tenard Jackson. The formerly suspended Buccaneers safety returned with a bang, playing 61 of Tampa Bay’s 70 defensive snaps. He graded out at a +1.8 for his effort, which included five solos, a pick, and a pass defensed. He’s a must-own in all formats, so grab him if he’s somehow still a free agent in your league. Mason Foster is still dealing with an injured ankle, which limited him to just 24 snaps last week. Keep him on your bench until he’s healthy. With Foster limited, the nickel snaps will go back to Quincy Black. Don’t rush out to pick up Black, though, as he has not been productive this season. Another injury situation to monitor is that of Michael Bennett, who missed practice this week with a groin injury. This could open things up for Da’Quan Bowers to get the start and the bulk of the snaps at left end opposite Adrian Clayborn. If Bennett sits, Bowers could be a very sneaky DL2/DL3 pay against a Bears offensive line that ranks 28th in pass blocking efficiency.
Denver @ Miami
While Tim Tebow doesn’t play defense, there is a chance that his rising tide could lift all Denver boats, including those on the defensive side of the ball. In particular, I’m looking at you, Elvis Dumervil. Though his play has not been bad, Dumervil has yet to record a sack on the season. On the bright side, he did notch a whopping eight QB interruptions in Week 5 against the Chargers. Miami has been extremely poor in pass blocking this season, giving up 23 sacks and rating 30th in pass blocking efficiency. Look for Dumervil to get off the schneid this week and record at least his first sack of the season. You can also expect Von Miller to have a nice day. He makes a solid LB2 in big play leagues.
Denver has not been a good matchup for LBs this season. They have given up the second least tackles and least fantasy points per game to the position, so this isn’t the week to rely on either Karlos Dansby or Kevin Burnett. Another player you want to avoid is Reshad Jones. Not only did he miss practice this week, but he has also regressed from the inflated fantasy numbers he posted in the first two weeks of the season. If you own him, there’s likely better options in free agency. Yeremiah Bell is about the only Dolphin defender to like in this one. Bell looked very good this past Monday night against the Jets, and has put up 19 solos in his last two games. He’s back to an every week DB1 in all formats.
Washington @ Carolina
LaRon Landry is back. Last week against the Eagles, Landry looked as explosive as ever in the process of recording nine solos and two QB interruptions. We can safely put him back in the top-tier of DBs. A Redskin who may be dropping into a lower tier is London Fletcher, who is showing signs that his age may finally be catching up with him. Fletcher is averaging just 3.8 solo tackles per game, which just simply doesn’t cut it as an LB2. Don’t drop him just yet, but you may want to look to other options until this trend reverses. Another player you may want to avoid in this game is Brian Orakpo. The Panthers gave up five sacks to opposing linebackers in the first two games of the season, but have not given up a sack to the position since then. This means that you will likely want to pull back the reigns on Ryan Kerrigan as well.
There has been talk about the Panthers possibly switching to a 3-4 alignment due to their deficiencies against the run. While this would certainly impact the IDP value of the Carolina defenders, nothing has been made official as of yet. So for now, play your Panthers as you have been all along. That means keep Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy in your lineup, especially with the Redskins going through a QB change. You also want to continue to start James Anderson. He’s had eight solos in each of the last two games, and is facing a Washington team that likes to run the ball. He makes a solid LB2 in all formats.
Houston @ Tennessee
The Titans have only given up two sacks to opposing defensive linemen, and currently rate first in pass blocking efficiency. While Antonio Smith has certainly proven worthy of a start in big play formats, you may want to keep him on your bench this week. His five sacks on 27 interruptions is impressive, but he will likely be bottled up by the Titans offensive line. With the line creating time, Matt Hasselbeck has been in a bit of a renaissance this season. Look for the Titans to attack Houston through the air. Jonathan Joseph makes an okay start as a DB3, but I really like Daniel Manning in this one. Manning and Glover Quin have been used interchangeably at the FS and SS positions throughout the season, but Manning has the slight edge in fantasy production. He’s coming off of a nine solo performance against the Ravens, and makes an interesting DB2 play.
Despite freakish talent and a premium pedigree, Derrick Morgan has yet to “hit” for fantasy owners. The second-year player out of Georgia Tech has two sacks on just 15 QB interruptions this season, and is coming off of his worst performance of the season where he graded out at a -4.3 overall against the Steelers. His production thus far has made him barely rosterable. I think we still have to stay the course with Morgan, however, as his talent will certainly catch up with his play. There’s always a bit of a learning curve at DE, so exercise patience with him, especially in dynasty leagues. This week he faces a Texans team who has given up the most tackles to opposing defensive linemen. That could mean good things for Morgan owners in tackle heavy formats where he can be started as a DE3. If you own Jason McCourty, you’re starting him as a DB1 in all formats. He’s had ten solos in each of his last two games and has flashed some nice big play ability this season. I also think we see a strong game from Barrett Ruud, who can be relied on as an LB2 in tackle heavy and balanced formats.
Pittsburgh @ Arizona
The Arizona offensive line has done little to help Kevin Kolb’s cause this season. They currently rate as the worst team in pass blocking efficiency and have given up 16 sacks on the season. LaMarr Woodley has converted a jaw dropping six of his fifteen interruptions into sacks this season. With James Harrison still out, Woodley is a must start in big play and balanced formats. Harrison’s absence has also impacted the fantasy value of Lawrence Timmons. Last week Timmons played all of the Steelers defensive snaps, but put up a goose egg for fantasy owners. That’s not what you want out of any fantasy starter, much less a guy you drafted to be your LB1. Is this a regression that we’re witnessing? In short, no. Timmons is the most athletic and versatile LB the Steelers have, so he’s been moved all around the field. This has unfortunately limited his fantasy production, but is by no means an indicator of his ability. For now, put Timmons on the bench. In dynasty leagues, he makes a great buy-low candidate.
Pittsburgh yields the fourth most points to opposing defensive linemen, and the Cardinals have one of the better big play defensive linemen in Calais Campbell. Back in Week 3, Campbell blew up for three sacks and five solo tackles against Seattle. He’s not an every week stud, but he certainly can take advantage of a good matchup when given the opportunity. This is one of those opportunities. Get him in your lineup as a DL1 this week. I also like Darnell Dockett to a lesser extent, and would consider him as a solid DL2 option. Daryl Washington has returned from injury and has produced decent fantasy numbers over the last two weeks. Washington has a nice matchup in this one, provided the Steelers come out like they did last week and attack with Rashard Mendenhall. Washington makes a decent LB2 start in all formats.
Kansas City @ Oakland
Many fantasy owners were licking their chops in the preseason at the prospects of potentially getting their hands on Eric Berry. There’s no doubt in my mind that if Berry were healthy, he would be the top fantasy scoring DB today. Unfortunately, we will have to wait until next season to see Berry back in action. In his wake, we have seen Jon McGraw, Donald Washington and Sabby Piscitelli all get a crack at the Kansas City SS job. Coming out of their bye, it’s looking like we will again see McGraw in the starting role. McGraw was very productive over the first two weeks of the season, racking up 14 solos, two passes defensed, and a pick. Since then he’s battled injury, but now looks to be fully healthy. If you’re struggling at DB, McGraw could make for a good bye week fill in against a Raiders team who has given up 20 solo tackles per game to opposing defensive backs.
A deeper player to keep your eye on in Oakland is Kamerion Wimbley (+16.4), who currently grades out as the top 4-3 OLB and has recorded 25 QB interruptions on the season. Though he’s only converted one of these interruptions for a sack, it’s only a matter of time before he explodes. Wimbley should also benefit from the Raiders placing Matt Shaughnessy on IR earlier this week. There’s a chance Wimbley could see some snaps at DE moving forward. While Aaron Curry did get the start on the weak side for the Raiders last week, he only played 21 of their 71 snaps. If Wimbley does get used some at DE, Curry could factor into the nickel packages. So you may also want to keep your eye on Curry, because any three down player has value, especially in deeper leagues. Apparently Rolando McClain’s ankle wasn’t serious at all, as he went out and played all of Oakland’s 71 snaps last week. He will continue to give you solid LB2 production moving forward. Oh, and Tyvon Branch is a stud who should be started every week as your DB1 regardless of matchup.
Green Bay @ Minnesota
As we thought, Clay Matthews (+13.7) was able to record his second sack of the season last week against Sam Bradford and the Rams. He currently sits tied with DeMarcus Ware as the second highest rated 3-4 OLB, and has recorded an impressive 30 QB interruptions on the season. Look for Matthews to start racking up the sacks from here forward, especially this week against Christian Ponder. Get him in your lineup in big play formats as an LB2 with upside. Another player from the Packers to like on an every week basis is Desmond Bishop. He has topped the ten solo mark three times this season, and after his 12 last week, now stands at 51 on the season. We should also see good results from the Green Bay secondary, as the Vikings will likely be down quickly and have to throw plenty in this one. Morgan Burnett and Charles Woodson are DB1s, and you can even sneak Tramon Williams into your lineup as a DB2.
It looks like the Jared Allen/Brian Robison train may slow down a little bit this week, though I don’t think it grinds to a complete halt. The Packers have given up seven sacks on the season to opposing defensive ends, so it’s not impossible to get to Aaron Rodgers. If you have Allen, you’re obviously starting him. I also doubt you find much better DL2 options than Robison in free agency, so you likely have to roll with him too. Green Bay is giving up the tenth most solo tackles per game to opposing defensive backs, so you can get Husain Abdullah into your lineup as a DB2 in tackle heavy and balanced scoring leagues. Keep a close eye on Antoine Winfield’s status for this one. If he goes, he’s a DB1.
St. Louis @ Dallas
Dallas currently yields the most fantasy points per game to opposing LBs. That’s good news for James Laurinaitis owners who have only gotten 27 solos so far this season from the for Ohio State Buckeye. Look for Laurinaitis to break out and put up high end LB1 production in all formats this weekend. Injuries have ravaged the Rams secondary, who currently sport the fourth lowest grade in pass coverage at -20.7. Tony Romo should have a field day this weekend, so start him if you own him. This means good things for both Darrian Stewart and Quintin Mikell, who have been getting the bulk of the safety snaps with Craig Dahl limited to just situational snaps. Neither Stewart nor Mikell has post huge numbers this season, but both are used interchangeably. This means they chances to make tackles in the box, and also have big play upside in coverage. Both players should be owned all formats, and both make interesting DB2/flex plays this week based the on matchup upside.
Sean Lee came through again for fantasy owners, racking up nine solos, a pass defensed, and a pick last week against the Patriots. In watching the game film, Lee just always seems to be around the ball. While this wouldn’t seem like the best matchup against a struggling St. Louis team, the Rams actually give up the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing LBs. Lee again makes a high end LB1 play. Aside from Lee and DeMarcus Ware, there’s really nobody else you want to play from the Cowboys on a weekly basis. However, this week you may want to consider giving Anthony Spencer a start in big play leagues. The Rams have given up a league high 23 sacks on the season, and have been especially vulnerable to 3-4 OLBs. If you’re hurting at LB, you could do a lot worse this week than Spencer.
Indianapolis @ New Orleans
Antione Bethea is one of the more underrated fantasy safeties out there. He doesn’t give you huge numbers like you might get out of someone like LaRon Landry, but Bethea consistently puts up points for fantasy owners. This week he has a juicy matchup in New Orleans. Only the Eagles have given up more fantasy points to opposing DBs than the Saints this season. Bethea makes a bye-week DB1 play in all formats. Also getting a matchup boost in this one are the Indianapolis corners. Jerraud Powers should see plenty of targets from Drew Brees on the right side, but questions remain on the left. Jacoby Lacey was benched last week after Jerome Simpson took him to school. Terrance Johnson replaced Lacey and looked decent in the process. Powers makes a sneaky DB2 start this week, but I would stay away from either Lacey or Johnson until the picture becomes clearer. Another uncertain situation for the Colts is at WLB. Kavell Conner lost his nickel role to Ernie Sims two weeks ago, and that pattern repeated last week. Unless he gets back into the nickel packages, Conner should likely be benched for other options.
Jonathan Vilma currently grades out as the second worst ILB overall (-8.7), and has been generally ineffective this season. He also faces a Colts offense who has given up the second least fantasy points to opposing LBs. Keep Vilma on your bench in this one. You may also want to lower your expectations for Roman Harper this week. The Colts are just plain bad for opposing IDPs this season, and also give up the second least points to opposing DBs. The one Saints player you may want to consider starting in this one is Will Smith. The Colts have given up eight sacks to opposing defensive linemen this season, so the matchup is decent. But I still wouldn’t want to rely on him as anything more than a DL2.
Baltimore @ Jacksonville
The Jaguars are tied with the Saints for the eighth most tackles yielded to opposing linebackers this season. That’s music to your ears if you’re a Ray Lewis owner. Lewis currently grades out as the second highest rated ILB here at PFF, and still shows an ability to be around the ball and to make plays. We should see plenty of Lewis/MJD collisions on Monday night. Bernard Pollard struggles in coverage, but he likely won’t have to do much of that against the Jaguar’s lowest rated pass offense (-13.4). With Tom Zbikowski likely still out this week, Pollard will get a bulk of the snaps at strong safety and makes a decent DB2 play. Another Raven to like in this one is Terrell Suggs. In his four games as a starter, Blaine Gabbert has been sacked nine times by a defensive linemen. Suggs is in store for a huge day and is my top-ranked defensive linemen this week.
Just as we thought, Aaron Kampman was rotated in with Matt Roth and Austen Lane at defensive left end last week. Lane was placed on IR earlier this week, but we should continue to see a rotation with Kampman and Roth moving forward. Neither is ownable in all but the deepest of leagues. After a shaky start, Paul Posluzsny has exploded for 30 solo tackles in the last three games. He’s an absolute stud and makes a high end LB1 start against a Baltimore team who has given up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing LBs this season. Finally, Dawan Landry faces his former team in this one. Landry has been up and down from a fantasy standpoint this season, but I expect him to step up his game in the primetime spotlight. Get him in your lineup as a DB2 with upside.
Hard to believe but we've crossed the halfway point in the fantasy regular season. It's time to start building momentum for the playoffs. As always, if you have any questions, comments, or just want to talk football, feel free to hit me up on Twitter – @JeffRatcliffe. Best of luck this weekend!
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