Fantasy: The Devil and the Angel on Matt Ryan's shoulders

I decided to take a break from my esoteric research because I was swept up in the debate that followed Mike Clay’s update of his 2012 player rankings. More than any other player, Matt Ryan was the lightning rod. Mike ranked him 13th among quarterbacks, which several commenters believe undersold both his safety and upside.

I was surprised by the debate because I had always considered Ryan the benchmark rather than the variable. Just as I had determined Philip Rivers was the barrier a QB needed to cross for me to consider him elite, I appraised Ryan the standard of serviceable. For me, the question would have always been how does another player compare to Ryan, not how does Ryan compare to another player.

However, that self-assurance hurt me last season. I was so sure that Eli Manning was a 4,000-yard passer that I traded him at what I thought was a peak performance but was, in fact, a new standard. I do not want to make the same mistake this season, so I decided I needed to question whether Ryan was capable of making the same jump.

Ryan was a day-one starter in 2008. He posted an impressive 19.4 overall rating as a rookie. After a letdown in 2009, he has rebounded to a 28.4 rating in 2010 and a 31.4 rating in 2011, which was second and fourth best at his position, respectively.

As a player, Ryan is clearly elite, but that on-field success has failed to translate into fantasy stardom. In 2010, Ryan scored 258.4 fantasy points in standard scoring, good for 8th among QBs and 40.32 points above replacement. In 2011, Ryan scored 279.48 fantasy points, still 8th at his position but an improved 64.28 points above replacement. It is easy to look at those numbers, see that Ryan has been top-8 the last two seasons and is trending upward, and think that he should be 8th or better at his position in 2012. That is an incomplete picture.

Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady are the only quarterbacks to have outscored Ryan in each of the last two seasons. That is exceptional company and evidence of his safeness. However, safety is less of a concern at non-elite levels of production in a position as shallow as QB in a 10-team league, and much of his profile suggests that Ryan has already reached his potential.

There are three quarterbacks in recent seasons that made the leap that I believe are instructive. They are Matt Schaub in 2009 and Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning in 2011. Each player followed a unique path to overachieve his expectations, but there were common elements.

Schaub needed only to be healthy. He held consistent in his yards per attempt in 2008 and 2009—8.0 and 8.2, respectively—but he attempted 203 more passes in 2009. That was all about his health, as the Texans as a team dropped back to pass on 59% of offensive snaps in 2008 and 60% of offensive snaps in 2009. His 5.0% touchdown rate was on the high side of his career norms, but he would have been productive at a lesser number.

The perception is that Stafford, like Schaub, needed only his health. However, Stafford had several other factors at play. Yes, he went from 377 attempts in 2009 and only 96 attempts in 2010 to 663 attempts in 2011, but health is only a part of that. He led the league in attempts in 2011 and was third in snaps, the result of luck and a strong candidate for regression. The Lions, as a team, went from 62% and 63% passes in 2009 and 2010 to 67% passes in 2011. In addition, Stafford saw his yards per attempt increase by 2 yards from the 2010 to 2011.

Eli had been a consistent, productive player for years. He had barely exceeded 4,000 yards passing in both 2009 and 2010. His 4.6% interception rate in 2010 was abnormally high, close to double that of his previous seasons, so that was expected to fall in 2011. It did. What was unexpected was a big jump in his career high in attempts (589) and yards per attempt (8.4). Like the Lions, the Giants offense has shifted. They went from 54% passes in 2010 to 61% in 2011.

The Giants had actually shown a jump in pass percentage a few years earlier, from 51% in 2008 to 57% in 2009. That is interesting because their passing offense has mirrored the shift in the fantasy environment over the same time.

The above-replacement (top-16) quarterbacks combined to provide 734.32 value above replacement in 2009. They produced 673.34 in 2010 and an incredible 1,145.58 in 2011. As a percentage of the total value above replacement in typical leagues, QBs went from 13% in 2009 to 11% in 2010 to 16% in 2011. Eli and the Giants followed the trends. Ryan and the Falcons did not.

After a rookie campaign where the Falcons limited Ryan to passes on 48% of offensive plays, they have passed at a rate of 58%, 56%, and 58% in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Ryan increased production in 2011 by improving his yards per attempt from 6.5 to 7.4, a number that he could sustain because of additions like Julio Jones and his own improvement. However, the percentage increase in his production from 2010 to 2011 was less than the composite above-replacement QB from 2010 to 2011. Ryan actually regressed as a fantasy player against his peers because of the changes in the scoring environment.

So where does that leave us? If you want to consider Ryan as a jump candidate, you cannot expect improved health, as happened for Schaub and Stafford. He has been healthy for his career. You cannot expect an increase in pass rate, as happened for Stafford and Eli. The Falcons have been consistent across the last three seasons, despite Ryan’s improvements. And you cannot expect the Falcons to have more offensive snaps, as happened for Stafford, any more than you can for another team.

You have to hope that Ryan continues to improve, which could be difficult for a player already elite in skill, the quarterbacks around him are hurt or fall back to earth, which would increase the value of his level of production, or that the Falcons throw out their offensive philosophy. Yes, they have a new offensive coordinator, and yes, Michael Turner is a year older. There are reasons for optimism, but not as many as there were for the players who made the leap in recent years, and less of his potential value is available to be captured.

In 2009, Schaub had an ADP of 11 among QBs and 70 overall. In 2011, Stafford and Eli had ADPs of 12 and 13, 78 and 88 overall. However, Ryan had an ADP of 8 among QBs in 2011 and 49 overall. Unless his stock falls drastically in 2012, you will have to pay for a level of expectations that the others did not.

I doubt that Robert Griffin III will have a better season that Ryan, but that is really beside the point. What does it really cost to swing for the fences? In a typical 10-team league, only 16 quarterbacks are drafted. I probably strike out with Griffin 4 times in 5, but then I can pick up Mark Sanchez, Andy Dalton, or Ryan Fitzpatrick. None is so much worse than Ryan that it is crazy to bet on those 5-1 odds. After all, isn’t that how you turned Stafford into a championship a year ago?

Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_ScottSpratt