An interesting twist occurred when I was gathering data for this rookie wide receiver article. A bunch of non-drafted receivers had statistics in 2010. The problem was I couldn’t add just the productive guys and ignore the depth guys. So I decided to add them all and run the data. Every player who qualified as a rookie at NFL.com over the past five seasons is included in the excel file. The addition of the 38 non-drafted receivers doesn’t skew the percentages all that much compared to last year’s report, and it gives us a clearer picture of the receiving landscape in the NFL.
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Click the link below to view the Excel report.
>>> Rookie WR Production <<<
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Percentages for a 16 team league, starting 2.5 WRs
2.5 WR starters determined because numerous leagues will permit starting only two receivers.
“Starters” were players ranked in the Top 40 at the end of the season.
“Backups” were players worthy of contributing to your fantasy team in a limited capacity.
“Rosterable” were players worthy of belonging on a fantasy roster.
“Minimal Contribution” were players on waivers who could be useful in case of emergencies (ex: injuries, byes, poor match-up).
“No Contribution” were players who could be found on waivers.
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Rookie Production, 2010: 46 Wide Receivers
7% chance at drafting a starter (3 players)
– 2% chance of drafting a WR#1 (1 player)
– 4% chance of drafting a WR#2/3 (2 players)
9% chance of drafting a backup (4 players)
17% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (8 players)
67% chance of no contribution in rookie season (31 players)
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Rookie Production, 2006 – 2010: 201 Wide Receivers
8% chance at drafting a starter (16 players)
– 1% chance of drafting a WR#1 (3 players)
– 6% chance of drafting a WR#2/3 (13 players)
8% chance of drafting a backup (16 players)
9% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (19 players)
75% chance of no contribution in rookie season (150 players)
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Wide Receivers drafted in the first round, 2006 – 2010: 15
47% chance at drafting a starter (7 players)
– 7% chance of drafting a WR#1 (1 player)
– 40% chance of drafting a WR#2/3 (6 players)
27% chance of drafting a backup (4 players)
7% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (1 player)
20% chance of no contribution in rookie season (3 players)
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Wide Receivers drafted between the second and fourth rounds, 2006 – 2010: 77
9% chance at drafting a starter (7 players)
– 3% chance of drafting a WR#1 (2 players)
– 6% chance of drafting a WR#2/3 (5 players)
12% chance of drafting a backup (9 players)
13% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (10 players)
66% chance of no contribution in rookie season (51 players)
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Wide Receivers drafted after the fourth round, 2006 – 2010: 109
2% chance at drafting a starter (2 players)
– 0% chance of drafting a WR#1 (0 players)
– 2% chance of drafting a WR#2/3 (2 players)
3% chance of drafting a backup (3 players)
7% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (8 players)
88% chance of no contribution in rookie season (96 players)
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Quick hits:
An astounding 17 undrafted receivers were credited with a rookie season in 2010 at NFL.com. That compares to four in 2009, two in 2008, four in 2007, and 11 in 2006. Look for the numbers to revert back to the 07-09 values. The longer the players are locked out, the less chance undrafted players have to make a contribution in an NFL game.
Injuries to Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark crow-barred Blair White into the Colts lineup. Be sure to remember White’s depth chart status when it’s time to draft this summer.
The Bills got contributions from undrafted rookies David Nelson, Donald Jones, and Naaman Roosevelt to go along with former seventh round pick Steve Johnson’s breakout season. I wonder if management will avoid drafting receivers high in the draft like they did with James Hardy. It appeared to be the case in 2011, as they avoided the position entirely.
Kick return specialists eligible at receiver can help you out of an injury or bye week jam in deep leagues. I’ll take Marc Mariani vs the Chargers’ special teams every day over a plodding WR#4.
There is no difference between second, third, and fourth round rookie production.
Who was the best rookie over the past five seasons? Not Percy Harvin. Not Marques Colston. Not the Bucs’ Mike Williams. It was Eddie Royal. Fantasy owners wish Mike Shanahan and the ‘Skins could bring him to Washington.
Notice a trend in rookie wide receiver production? 2006-2008 had 21 receivers post some sort of statistical contribution (5, 9, 7). 2009 and 2010 had 30 receivers (15, 15). It’s only natural the increased focus in the passing attack around the NFL would lead to extra opportunities for younger receivers.
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Rookie Production, 2010, ProFootballFocus Premium Stats Highlights:
“The goal of our detailed grading process is to gauge how players execute their roles over the course of a game by looking at the performance of each individual on each play.” Click here for more on the grading process.
Dez Bryant DAL: 12 GP, 71 Targets (ranked #57), 3 “plus” games, 7 “even” games, 2 “minus” games, 26th ranked PFF Pass Rating, 42nd ranked Overall PFF WR (includes running, blocking, penalties).
Gifted, sometimes injured, and often troubled, he was able to take over games when given a chance last season. In terms of his playmaking skills, his 26th ranked pass rating is solid. The other aspects of his game were lacking which really put a dent into his overall PFF ranking. However, the Cowboys will never bench him because he is a poor blocker or takes a dumb penalty. He’s paid to catch balls, which he will do often in 2011.
Mike Williams TBB: 16 GP, 122 Targets (ranked #14), 3 “plus” games, 12 “even” games, 1 “minus” game, 40th ranked PFF Pass Rating, 28th ranked Overall PFF WR.
Arrelious Benn TBB: 15 GP, 37 Targets (ranked #101), 4 “plus” games, 9 “even” games, 2 “minus” games, 35th ranked PFF Pass Rating, 10th ranked Overall PFF WR.
The Bucs were able to give Josh Freeman his primary receiving weapons for years to come in one draft. Mike Williams posted the third best rookie season over the past five seasons. “Reety-awrighty” Arrelious Benn was the 2nd best blocking WR according to PFF, which helped land him in the Top 10. Both receivers finished the year strong as three of Benn’s “plus” games happened in Weeks 13, 14, and 15 (he missed Week 17), and Williams three “plus” games happened in Weeks 15, 16, and 17.
Demaryius Thomas DEN: 10 GP, 37 Targets (ranked #101), 3 “plus” games, 5 “even” games, 2 “minus” games, 31st ranked PFF Pass Rating, 37th ranked Overall PFF WR.
Injuries have destroyed his young career. Foot, arm, and head/neck injuries all marred his rookie season, and now Achilles tendon surgery will eat into his sophomore season. There is no guarantee his explosion will return, so at best he is a late round flyer in Re-Draft leagues. Hang onto him in Dynasty leagues, since you probably used a pretty good pick to get him and it’s too soon to eat that investment.
Jordan Shipley CIN: 16 GP, 72 Targets (ranked #54), 3 “plus” games, 11 “even” games, 1 “minus” game, 61st ranked PFF Pass Rating, 55th ranked Overall PFF WR.
David Gettis CAR: 16 GP, 66 Targets (ranked #68), 2 “plus” games, 5 “even” games, 8 “minus” games, 139th ranked PFF Pass Rating, 166th ranked Overall PFF WR.
Jacoby Ford OAK: 16 GP, 50 Targets (ranked #81), 1 “plus” game, 11 “even” games, 4 “minus” games, 147th ranked PFF Pass Rating, 152nd ranked Overall PFF WR.
Ford and Gettis were the beneficiaries of a terrible depth chart. If you have a decision to make regarding these three players, lean towards Shipley. His rankings are miles ahead of the other guys, and he has a chance to be the WR#1 in Cincy if management cuts ties with Chad Ochocinco.
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Wide Receivers drafted in 2011: 28 (player, team, round drafted)
A.J. Green CIN (1), Julio Jones ATL (1), Jonathan Baldwin KCC (1), Titus Young DET (2), Torrey Smith BAL (2), Greg Little CLE (2), Randall Cobb GBP (2), Austin Pettis STL (3), Leonard Hankerson WAS (3), Vincent Brown SDC (3), Jerrel Jernigan NYG (3), Kris Durham SEA (4), Edmond Gates MIA (4), Gregory Salas STL (4), Cecil Shorts JAC (4), Tandon Doss BAL (4), Kealoha Pilares CAR (5), Denarius Moore OAK (5), Jeremy Kerley NYJ (5), Niles Paul WAS (5), Ryan Whalen CIN (6), Dwayne Harris DAL (6), Aldrick Robinson WAS (6), Ronald Johnson SFO (6), Scotty McKnight NYJ (7), Stephen Burton MIN (7), David Ausberry OAK (7), Demarco Sampson ARI (7)
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All three first round picks landed in great situations. The Bengals, Falcons, and Chiefs have holes at the receiver position, and the rookies could find themselves on the field come opening day. However, the past five seasons show only two out of the three guys will be Rosterable. Clearly, Green and Jones will be favored to out-produce Baldwin. Don’t blindly skip Baldwin though, as he has a clear path to the #2 WR job. His 40-time wasn’t that exciting (4.50), but the guy is a monster (6’4”, 224lbs). The Chiefs already own speedsters Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster to spread the field. I know, they’re running backs, but the defense will be forced to keep players over the top of these guys, which should open up lanes for Baldwin and Dwayne Bowe. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if all three rookie receivers are Rosterable in 2011.
As previously mentioned, receivers drafted between the second and fourth rounds produced almost identical numbers in their rookie year. The early ADP buzz is leaning toward Little, Cobb, Smith, and Hankerson. That’s three second rounders and one third rounder. The smart move would be to scout the rest of the third rounders and all of the fourth rounders because there will definitely be guys who become Rosterable. After doing a bit of research, I like Durham and Shorts. Durham is well-rounded; good hands, tough, with solid speed. The Seahawks coaches were rotating receivers all year in 2010, so an impressive camp could get him game action early and often. Shorts measures 6’0”, 200 lbs, and has great speed and elusiveness. Inconsistent hands blemishes his scouting report, as well as historically bad receiving stats for Jaguars’ receivers. However, Short doesn’t have to become a star, and a few dazzling catch-and-runs will make up for a few dropped balls here and there.
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Other articles in the Rookie Production series:
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