Defensive Back is by far the deepest position in fantasy football. When it comes to setting a floor, we have to take it all the way down to the 200th ranked player. Even guys ranked this low were capable of providing you with a few serviceable weeks. Owning a plug-and-play DB stud (plug him in starting lineup Week 1; play him every week no questions asked) is gold. However, with so much depth, spending a premium draft pick on a top tier DB is almost the equivalent of drafting a kicker high. Unheralded rookie DB’s litter the waiver wire, so there is always an opportunity to add talent early in the season.
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Click the link below to the Excel report.
>>> Rookie DB Production <<<
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Percentages for a 16-team league, starting 2 DBs
“Starters” were players ranked in the Top 32 at the end of the season.
“Backups” were players worthy of contributing to your fantasy team in a limited capacity.
“Rosterable” were players worthy of belonging on a fantasy roster.
“Minimal Contribution” were players on waivers who could be useful in case of emergencies (ex: injuries, byes, poor match-up).
“No Contribution” were players who could be found on waivers.
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Rookie Production, 2010: 55 Defensive Backs
7% chance of drafting a starter (4 players)
– 7% chance of drafting a DB#1 (4 players)
– 0% chance of drafting a DB#2 (0 players)
7% chance of drafting a backup (4 players)
* Three of the eight DBs worth being on a roster were safeties
27% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (15 players)
58% chance of no contribution in rookie season (32 players)
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Rookie Production, 2006 – 2010: 259 Defensive Backs
3% chance of drafting a starter (8 players)
– 2% chance of drafting a DB#1 (6 players)
– 1% chance of drafting a DB#2 (2 players)
9% chance of drafting a backup (24 players)
* Fourteen of the 32 DBs worth being on a roster were safeties
27% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (71 players)
60% chance of no contribution in rookie season (156 players)
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Defensive Backs drafted in the first round, 2006 – 2010: 29
10% chance of drafting a starter (3 players)
– 7% chance of drafting a DB#1 (2 players)
– 3% chance of drafting a DB#2 (1 player)
34% chance of drafting a backup (10 players)
* Six of the 13 DBs worth being on a roster were safeties
41% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (12 players)
14% chance of no contribution in rookie season (4 players)
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Defensive Backs drafted in the second round, 2006 – 2010: 36
8% chance of drafting a starter (3 players)
– 8% chance of drafting a DB#1 (3 players)
– 0% chance of drafting a DB#2 (0 players)
11% chance of drafting a backup (4 players)
* Four of the seven DBs worth being on a roster were safeties
50% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (18 players)
31% chance of no contribution in rookie season (11 players)
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Defensive Backs drafted after the second round, 2006 – 2010: 194
1% chance of drafting a starter (2 players)
– 1% chance of drafting a DB#1 (1 player)
– 1% chance of drafting a DB#2 (1 player)
5% chance of drafting a backup (10 players)
* Four of the 12 DBs worth being on a roster were safeties
21% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (41 players)
72% chance of no contribution in rookie season (141 players)
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Quick hits:
Don’t go crazy trying to exploit rookie kick returning defensive backs. Leodis McKelvin circa 2008 doesn’t come along often. Rookie DB’s Perrish Cox, Javier Arenas, Sam Shields, Bryan McCann, Lardarius Webb, Quintin Demps, Brian Witherspoon, and Devin Hester all got chances to return kicks, but their special team stats only gave them backup status (at best).
Don’t be prejudiced against cornerbacks. Owning hard-hitting, tackling safeties is a safe investment, but the percentages actually favor cornerback production. Eighteen of the 32 DBs worth being on a roster were cornerbacks in a standard format.
The Arizona Cardinals drafted just four defensive backs in the past five years, which is the fewest in the NFL. Other teams who have stayed away from the position: New York Jets (5), Miami Dolphins (6), Pittsburgh Steelers (6), Seattle Seahawks (6), Washington Redskins (6).
The Atlanta Falcons drafted 12 defensive backs in the past five years, which is the most in the NFL. Other teams who have drafted a high amount of defensive backs: Chicago Beras (11), Dallas Cowboys (11), Kansas City Chiefs (11), Tennessee Titans (11).
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Rookie Production, 2010, ProFootballFocus Premium Stats Highlights:
“The goal of our detailed grading process is to gauge how players execute their roles over the course of a game by looking at the performance of each individual on each play.” Click here for more on the grading process.
Defensive Back ratings use a snap filter of 25% due to the vast quantity of players who participated in minimal game action.
Eric Berry KCC: 16 GP, 1100 snaps (ranked #8 for Safeties), 4 “plus” games, 9 “even” games, 3 “minus” games, 20th rated Safety by PFF.
T.J. Ward CLE: 16 GP, 1079 snaps (ranked #9 for Safeties), 5 “plus” games, 7 “even” games, 3 “minus” games, 31st rated Safety by PFF.
Earl Thomas SEA: 16 GP, 1112 snaps (ranked #7 for Safeties), 3 “plus” games, 10 “even” games, 3 “minus” games, 36th rated Safety by PFF.
It’s evident the coaching staffs’ trusted their kids, allowing each to crack the Top 10 in snaps for safeties. The experience will be huge for the trio moving forward, and all make great fantasy targets in Re-Draft and Dynasty leagues.
Joe Haden CLE: 15 GP, 813 snaps (ranked #47 for Cornerbacks), 7 “plus” games, 8 “even” games, 1 “minus” game, 6th rated Cornerback by PFF.
Devin McCourty NEP: 16 GP, 1065 snaps (ranked #10 for Cornerbacks), 6 “plus” games, 7 “even” games, 3 “minus” games, 9th rated Cornerback by PFF.
These first round rookie cornerbacks excelled in coverage, which catapulted them to Top 10 PFF status. Haden had the third best coverage rating (behind Champ Bailey and Brandon Flowers; one ahead of Nnamdi Asomugha). McCourty had the seventh best coverage rating. Of course in fantasy-land, being a top cover corner has its downside. If word spreads throughout the league that they have shutdown ability, quarterbacks won’t throw their way (ala Bailey, Asomugha, Darrelle Revis). History shows us it is rare for a cornerback to maintain fantasy excellence over an extended period of time. It only happens at cornerback when you combine superb tackling skills with the ability to create turnovers, like Antoine Winfield, Charles “Peanut” Tillman, and Charles Woodson. Haden and McCourty must maintain their tackling and big play ability in order to achieve the recession-proof value of those veterans. I like to play it safe in my draft when it comes to defensive backs. There is no way I’m spending a premium draft pick on the sophomore cornerbacks when I can get a proven veteran later in the draft, or grab one of the million serviceable options on the waiver wire.
Kareem Jackson HOU: 16 GP, 908 snaps (ranked #36 for Cornerbacks), 1 “plus” game, 9 “even” games, 6 “minus” games, 97th rated Cornerback by PFF.
At first glance, the former first rounder got abused in his rookie year. However, there was a drastic turnaround for Jackson midway through the season. In the first eight games of career, he produced 2 “even” games 6 “minus” games, 32 solo tackles, and seven passes defended. In the last eight games of season his PFF rating drastically improved with 1 “plus” game and 7 “even” games. His second-half stats didn’t dip too much with 26 tackles and three passes defended, proving he could be effective for fantasy purposes while providing good pass coverage for the Texans.
Alterraun Verner TEN: 16 GP, 1013 snaps (ranked #14 for Cornerbacks), 5 “plus” games, 8 “even” games, 3 “minus” games, 21st rated Cornerback by PFF.
I’d be surprised if .00001% of fantasy owners drafted Verner last season, and chances are it took until Week 5 for people to take notice (Weeks 3-5: 23 solos, 5 PD, 2 turnovers). Verner was a great source of consistent fantasy points, and his PFF rating was equally impressive. I’d like to have him on my fantasy team in 2011, but like the first round rookie cornerbacks, there is no need to reach for him.
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Defensive Backs drafted in 2011: 50 (player, position, team, round drafted)
Jimmy Smith CB BAL (1), Patrick Peterson CB ARI (1), Prince Amukamara CB NYG (1), Aaron Williams CB BUF (2), Brandon Harris CB HOU (2), Jaiquawn Jarrett S PHI (2), Marcus Gilchrist CB SDC (2), Rahim Moore S DEN (2), Ras-I Dowling CB NEP (2), Chris Culliver CB SFO (3), Christopher Conte S CHI (3), Curtis Brown CB PIT (3), Curtis Marsh CB PHI (3), Demarcus Van Dyke CB OAK (3), Johnny Patrick CB NOS (3), Shareece Wright CB SDC (3), Brandon Hogan CB CAR (4), Chimdi Chekwa CB OAK (4), Christopher Prosinski S JAC (4), Cortez Allen CB PIT (4), Da'Norris Searcy S BUF (4), Davon House CB GBP (4), Jalil Brown CB KCC (4), Quinton Carter S DEN (4), Rashad Carmichael CB HOU (4), Ahmad Black S TBB (5), Brandon Burton CB MIN (5), Buster Skrine CB CLE (5), Chykie Brown CB BAL (5), Dejon Gomes S WAS (5), Jermale Hines S STL (5), Joshua Thomas CB DAL (5), Mark LeGree S SEA (5), Richard Sherman CB SEA (5), Robert Sands S CIN (5), Roderick Issac CB JAC (5), Shiloh Keo S HOU (5), Byron Maxwell CB SEA (6), Chris L. Rucker CB IND (6), Colin Jones S SFO (6), Mistral Raymond S MIN (6), Tyler Sash S NYG (6), Anthony Gaitor CB TBB (7), Brandyn Thompson CB WAS (7), Curtis Holcomb CB SFO (7), Eric Hagg S CLE (7), Jonathan Nelson CB STL (7), Justin Rogers CB BUF (7), Korey Lindsey CB CIN (7), Tommie Campbell S TEN (7)
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Percentages lean towards one out of the three first round rookie defensive backs being useful. Odds are it will be Patrick Peterson. He’s a special talent that can/should be returning kicks. In leagues rewarding points for special team yardage, he could easily be a Top 10 DB.
Like the first round rookies, the percentages say just one of the second round guys will be useful. I love Eagles’ rookie Jaiquawn Jarrett. The Eagles have a good history of producing valuable safeties, and Quintin Mikell is probably not returning, opening the door for Jarrett to start right away. Jarrett has been described as hard-hitting, ferocious, extremely active in run defense, aggressive, intelligent, and a capable blitzer. Those are qualities IDP owners dream about.
As for guys drafted after the second round, that’s a ton of research for the 1% chance that someone could be a starter. Your best bet is to ignore these guys in your draft and monitor their playing time once the depth charts fall into place. A guy like Shiloh Keo could be effective if given a chance in the porous Texans’ secondary, but you won’t find out until the season starts.
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Other articles in the Rookie Production series:
Rookie Wide Receiver Production
Rookie Defensive Linemen Production
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