Chester Taylor, Marion Barber, and Michael Bush have something in common.
They’ve each been signed by the Chicago Bears to back up Matt Forte over the last three seasons.
Bush is hoping that his stay turns out better than those of his counterparts.
Taylor handled 323 snaps for Chicago back in 2010, struggling to a 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry. He was cut loose the following off-season.
In 2011, Marion Barber worked 183 snaps for the Bears, but was outplayed by No. 3 back Kahlil Bell en route to a paltry 3.7 YPC. He’s still under contract for another season, but is not expected to be retained much longer.
Enter Michael Bush – the prize of a Free Agent crop of tailbacks that quickly became underwhelming after the likes of Forte, Marshawn Lynch, and Ray Rice were either slapped with the Franchise Tag or signed to a long-term extension.
Although it seems that he’ll be stepping into basically the same role Taylor and Barber handled the last two seasons, Bush’s situation is quite different. First of all, one of the main reasons the Bears likely had interest in adding another potential feature back at the position is Forte’s current contract status. Forte has been looking for a long-term extension for quite some time now and is not pleased with the Franchise Tag tender he received earlier this month. In fact, he’s already taken his displeasure to Twitter today.
Going hand in hand with my previous point is that fact that Bush is a much better back than Taylor/Barber, and in the prime of his career. That is especially important because it’s possible that Forte could sit out for a chunk of the 2011 season, or be traded. That would mean a full complement of carries for Bush.
A fourth round pick by the Raiders back in 2007, Bush missed his entire rookie campaign due to a broken leg. He racked up 90+ carries each of the next four seasons, including a career-high 256 in 2011. Although he technically was playing second fiddle to Darren McFadden, the starter’s consistent injury woes allowed Bush plenty of involvement, especially down the stretch in 2011.
The good for Bush is that he’s shown the ability to produce as a between-the-tackles runner and has a nose for the endzone (21 career rushing touchdowns on 629 carries). The bad news, however, is a regressing yards-per-carry mark. After putting up a strong 4.8 YPC in 2009, he saw his mark fall to 4.2 in 2010 and to a below-average 3.8 in 2011. Following McFadden’s injury, Bush carried the ball 23+ times five times between weeks 9 and 17 for Oakland last season – a figure that is almost unheard of in this age of running back committees. The wear-and-tear showed, however, as Bush managed just four scores and 743 yards on 196 carries.
Fantasy Spin
I’ll touch on the alternative later on, but my assumption here right now is going to be that Matt Forte will play for the Bears this season. That being the case, Bush – much like prior to the 2010 and 2011 seasons – is not of significant Fantasy value. Still, he’s a guy that will need to be drafted. His talent level, combined with the opportunity he’d have should Forte go down with an injury, makes him one of the game’s premier handcuffs. If Week 1 was this Sunday, my projections would show about 17 carries for Forte and eight for Bush. Forte’s targets will drop a bit with Mike Martz out of the picture, but four or five per game is still a fair projection. Bush can be an asset in the passing game, but isn’t at Forte’s level, and a lack of a third down role will leave him with no more than a target or two on an average week.
Add all that up and Forte still sticks as a middle-of-the-pack RB1 in PPR leagues and a borderline RB1 in standard. Bush, meanwhile, is barely worth Flex consideration most weeks. He’s a guy you want to draft with the RB3s simply due to his situation as an elite handcuff, but he’s going to be hit or miss depending on his ability to find the endzone. It is worth noting that Barber scored 55% of the Chicago’s rushing touchdowns in 2011 – a role that Bush will now take over.
What happens if Forte is traded or sits out the season? Bush immediately becomes a RB1 in all formats. Although he isn’t the pass-catching machine Forte is, he can produce in the passing game and will see, at least, 3-4 targets a game to go with his 15+ carries.
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