I find it difficult to talk about the Jets trading a couple of draft picks for Tim Tebow as a football move because, let’s face it, whatever you think of Tebow and Mark Sanchez as players, I’m confident it does not equal their statuses. I had never put it together before they just became teammates, but in a way, Sanchez is the quarterback in the NFL who is most like Tebow. Both are perceived to have intangibles that make up for obvious deficiencies at the position.
If you have been reading Pro Football Focus, then you are probably already aware that Sanchez was the second-worst rated passer in 2011 at -27.9 overall, better only than rookie Blaine Gabbert. In isolation, that both undersells and oversells his ability. While it is true that there are several quarterbacks who were on pace to have a worse rating than Sanchez had they been allowed a similar number of snaps, it is also true that none of them kept their jobs for the full season like Sanchez did. Joe Flacco was the closest QB to him with at least 1,000 snaps, and his overall rating of -11.1 was not nearly as bad.
Meanwhile, Tebow snuck in just behind Flacco at a -11.7 overall rating, but in only 795 snaps. Tebow provides value as a rusher, where his +12.5 run score is second to Cam Newton among quarterbacks. However, he has a -22.7 passer grade, which is just behind Sanchez’s -24.3, and in more than 300 fewer snaps.
So what to make of the move? I’m not sure I fully understand it. I don’t buy that this is the straw that breaks the camel’s back for Sanchez. New York has always been a circus for him and everyone else, and he has never lacked confidence. Still, Tebow plus Sanchez does not equal one good quarterback, and if the Jets’ management believes that Tebow can solve their combustible locker room, I am skeptical. The move seems more destructive than constructive.
On the field, Tebow can be an asset in short yardage situations, both as a runner and as a decoy. Offensive coordinator Tony Sparano has experience with the Wild Cat formation from his head-coaching days in Miami, and Tebow could potentially be better suited for it than either Ronnie Brown was for the Dolphins or Brad Smith was for the Jets. Still, I cannot imagine a limited package for Tebow that would appease him or the fans long-term.
The only conclusion I can safely draw from the trade is that the Jets have diminished faith in Sanchez as their franchise QB, despite the contract extension. I just do not see this as a well-thought-out response.
Fantasy Spin:
I may be admitting my insanity by saying this, but I think this move is more important in fantasy, and not for the obvious reasons. You might be shocked to find that Sanchez was the 10th-best QB in standard scoring in 2011 and has had a marked increase in passing yards and touchdowns each year. His actual poor play is a non-factor. Prior to the Tebow trade, the Jets had repeatedly demonstrated their commitment to him as their starter.
And it is not that I fear Sanchez will lose his job to Tebow because I do not. However, Tebow will rob Sanchez of his sneaky rushing value. In 2008, the year before the Jets drafted Sanchez, they were the best run-blocking team in the league at +83.8 overall. By 2011, they had fallen to 12th at -30.6. As their offensive line has declined, Sanchez has shouldered more of the offensive burden as a passer and as a rusher. Sanchez has rushed for about 100 yards in each of his three seasons and has run in three scores in 2009 and 2010 and six scores in 2011.
Sanchez was able to benefit from the Jets’ failures in traditional goal-line sets, but Tebow provides them a better alternative. Had Sanchez rushed for only 1 TD instead of 6 in 2011, that loss of 30 fantasy points would have dropped him from 10th to 13th at the position in a year in which he remained healthy for the full season. It will be almost impossible for Sanchez to duplicate his absolute fantasy point total from 2011 in 2012 without a dramatic improvement in his level of play.
As for Tebow, I believe you have to expect he will become the backup for the entire season, but even with Sanchez’s lack of injury history, he should be the first backup drafted in most formats. Sanchez is one of the worst starters in the league, and Tebow has demonstrated fantasy effectiveness in his time as a starter. If Tebow took the job in-season, he would become a likely top-12 option. In a shallow league, I would consider taking him as early as 16th at the position and pair him with a safer player as my starter. In a deep or 2-QB league, I would drop him further to around 20th, behind players such as Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick but still before Carson Palmer and Matt Moore.
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_ScottSpratt
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