Fantasy: Reaction - Darren Sproles to the Saints

sprolesDarren Sproles has signed a 2 year contract with the Saints.  He’s been with the Chargers his whole career prior to this, and has played a scatback/receiving/homerun hitting role.  Sproles has never run for a bunch of yardage over the course of a season; in fact, his highest rushing total in a season was 343 in 2009.  He’s also only had 6 rushing TDs in his 5 seasons in the NFL.  Where he does shine is catching the football.  His reception totals have steadily increased as he’s been in the NFL: 3, 10, 29, 45, and 59 respectively.  From 2008-2010, Sproles had at least a 5.7 PFF pass rating in each season.  His overall ratings over the same span have been a respectable 12.3, 3.5 and 7.4.  As one can see, the majority of his positive ratings tend to come from his role in the passing game.  Sproles is also an above average returner, although his average punt return dropped to 6.9 yards per return last year.

There are a couple interesting things to note about Sproles.  One, he plays much better when his team is ahead than behind in terms of running the ball.  He has averaged 5.0 YPC when ahead or tied, while he has averaged only 3.3 YPC when behind.  Signing with a team like the Saints helps his cause here, as the Saints will usually play from ahead.  However, he does go from playing Oakland, Denver and Kansas City’s run D 6 times a year to playing Atlanta, Carolina and Tampa Bay 6 times a year.  Tampa Bay has historically had a weak run D, but seems to have shored it up well this offseason.  Sproles also averages a stout 5.6 YPC on 3rd downs, thanks in part to the necessity of teams respecting his passing game abilities.

Fantasy Spin:

Sproles enters a muddled backfield with Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory.  Essentially, he’s the new Reggie Bush.  Playing on turf definitely helps, but as with Bush, he’s tons more valuable in a PPR than a non-PPR.  His carries will be severely limited, and Ingram/Thomas are still capable receivers out of the backfield.  He may see time split wide here and there, and I’d venture to say Sean Payton is more creative than San Diego’s offensive minds.  Sproles will likely retain value in return yardage leagues as well.  In my mind, this impacts Pierre Thomas more than anyone, as Mark Ingram is still the likely early down go-to back.  The Saints picked Ingram in the 1st round for a reason.  This also makes Ivory a pretty undesirable commodity, especially given his injury propensity.  For the Chargers, this does little to change Mike Tolbert's value, and perhaps Ryan Mathews will see a few more receptions. It also makes Jordan Todman an interesting name in case of injury or in case Mathews doesn't prove effective on 3rd downs.  All in all, Sproles has about the same value Reggie Bush would have had with the Saints this season:  a nice player to have on your PPR bench, but nothing more.  275 rushing yards, 40 catches, 450 receiving yards and 3-4 TDs seems entirely reasonable.

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