Fantasy: Possession Receiver Breakouts 2012

With the NFL becoming increasingly pass-heavy and spread formations emerging as an integral part of the professional landscape, fantasy players and NFL teams are desperate to uncover the next Wes Welker. Last season I looked at possession receiver breakouts and whether we could predict them from the previous years' snap data. Unfortunately, all of our potential 2011 candidates suffered serious injuries by Week 3.

After working through the data again, our criteria remain mostly the same. I added a slot requirement this season to avoid selecting players like Jordy Nelson who occasionally turn in very high catch percentages but do not project as possession receivers in the future. (In 2009, Nelson saw 59% of his targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage but only 7% of his snaps in the slot.) I also upped the target per snap percentage from 10% to 12%.

Here are the benchmarks for players to qualify as possession receiver breakout candidates:

70% catch percentage
60% receptions within 10 yards of line of scrimmage
12% targeted per snap
25% snaps in slot
25 receptions

Furthermore, we discovered a season ago that players who fit the criteria and yet were way off the fantasy radar – outside the Top 100 WRs drafted – tend to regress the following season. Those players have also been eliminated from consideration.

To qualify for inclusion, the receivers need to be in their first 5 years in the NFL and not have had a 180-point fantasy season.

2009 to 2011 Breakout Candidates – Historical Profiles

Name	Year	Team	Snaps	Rec.	% Ct	TA/SN	PR < 10 yds	Slot %
Davone Bess	2008	MIA	401	54	72	0.187	68	32
Steve L. Smith	2008	NYG	532	57	71.3	0.150	73	29
Mike Thomas	2009	JAX	416	48	81.4	0.142	73	50
Julian Edelman	2009	NE	326	37	74	0.153	85	49
Davone Bess	2009	MIA	581	76	71.7	0.182	63	30
Danny Amendola	2009	SL	456	43	70.5	0.134	89	62
Earl Bennett	2010	CHI	502	46	69.7	0.131	68	44

* Austin Collie also technically met the criteria in 2010, but he wasn't included in the study because he was fourth overall in wide receiver PPG before being injured. He was considered to have already broken out.

A breakout fantasy season can be measured in a variety of different ways. We’ll use two criteria: 1) The player must score at least 150 fantasy points. 2) The player must increase his points over the previous season by at least 35%.

2009 to 2011 Breakout Candidates – Following Season Results

	2008 Snaps	2009 Snaps	2008 FP	2009 FP	% Change
Davone Bess	402	581	116.7	164.9	41%
Steve Smith	532	908	120.4	271	125%
	2009 Snaps	2010 Snaps	2009 FP	2010 FP	% Change
Davone Bess	581	679	164.9	190.7	16%
Mike Thomas	416	794	107.9	183.4	70%
Julian Edelman	326	179	79.4	17	-79%
Danny Amendola	456	677	81.4	180	121%
	2010 Snaps	2011 Snaps	2010 FP	2011 FP	% Change
Earl Bennett	502	457	75	44.1	-70%

Obviously this type of sample should be considered more of a thought experiment than proof of a definitive pattern. Still, the results are intriguing. Four of the seven players experienced a breakout, and although Davone Bess did not meet the threshold for a breakout season in 2010, his 190 fantasy points came at a sharp discount to his ADP.

This seems well above a realistically sustainable breakout rate, but even a much lower success rate would make this type of player worth the investment late in fantasy drafts. Unfortunately, only one player fits our model for 2012.

2012 Breakout Candidate

Name	Year	Team	Snaps	Rec.	% Ct	TA/SN	PR < 10 yds	Slot %
Greg Salas	2011	SL	197	27	77.1	0.178	91	61

The potential landmines for a Greg Salas breakout are legion. His 2011 average depth of target was dead last among qualifying receivers at 2.8 yards. His routes were essentially run at running back depth. Despite this, he dropped four of his 35 targets, which puts a significant stain on his 77% catch rate.

It’s also a big problem that he’ll be competing with Danny Amendola and Steve Smith for possession receiver duties. Both of these receivers have previously proven themselves in this role. Salas might be third in line if Amendola and Smith return to full health from their own injuries.

On the other hand, Salas has a much better size/speed profile than most people realize and probably should have been selected earlier than pick No. 112 of the 2011 NFL Draft. In his final season at Hawaii, he went off for 1,889 yards and 14 TDs. That equates to a very solid 34% market share of the Warriors’ yards and touchdowns.

Fantasy players seem aware of the concerns surrounding Salas and early drafts have seen him selected as WR99. This barely qualifies for our threshold and means he’s going undrafted in most leagues. Although I recently picked Salas off waivers in PFF’s ultra-deep dynasty league, he’s probably more of a Watch List candidate in redraft formats.

Other Possible Applications

While 2012 is mostly bereft of new breakout candidates, it may offer the possibility of capitalizing on post-hype players. Davone Bess, Steve Smith, Mike Thomas, and Danny Amendola are all being selected outside of the Top 175 picks, which means they can be had in the final round of many drafts. Bess is a logical candidate to lead the Dolphins in receiving, and Amendola or Smith could easily lead the Rams in receptions if one of them wins the slot receiver job outright.

Moreover, Austin Collie is being drafted as WR51 despite putting up elite possession receiver numbers in 2010. Collie is like Salas in that his size/speed profile and collegiate resume are both better than common perception. Even with a rookie quarterback at the helm, Collie is going off the board at a sharp discount to his probable value.