Well, this is my first article here at Pro Football Focus, so let me take a few lines to introduce myself. I have been the IDP Analyst/Content Manager over at FantasyFootball.com over the past several seasons. I've been an IDP enthusiast since 2007 and have participated in several IDP-mixed leagues, as well as all-IDP leagues, including winning the Blitz Invitational League (which is a 16-team all IDP league) in 2010. I hope to bring my IDP knowledge here and continue the great tradition of IDP writing here at Pro Football Focus. Now, onto the meat and potatoes. What I'll be doing here is taking a look at each team's roster situation across the defensive positions and will be speculating on what will happen during the off-season.
Baltimore Ravens
Ray Lewis continued to be the heart and soul of the defense in 2011, but started to show some chinks in the armor and did prove human. Lewis missed 4 games due to a toe injury, but when he was on the field, he did not leave the field and played in all, but 4, of the defensive snaps when he was active. In just 12 games, Lewis almost hit the 100 total tackle mark and finished with a +25.1 grade (+17.6 against the run), but at his age, the Ravens might limit his snaps in 2012 and look to the draft for their MIKE of the future. From an IDP standpoint, it's the equivalent of Peyton Manning paving the way for Andrew Luck. Lewis said after their playoff loss to the Patriots that he is in no way retiring and you can expect to see him in a Raven uniform this season. Jameel McClain played well in Lewis' absence, as he played all of the defensive snaps at MIKE, but is a liability in pass coverage and is more of a two-down ‘backer. There's also a possibility that he could test the waters as an UFA. I would expect to see Lewis manning the middle once again in 2012, with a suitable replacement in tow. Could it be Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict?
Bernard Pollard was one of the more under-rated free agent signings during the shortened off-season. Pollard played in a rotation between Tom Zbikowski in the first few weeks of the season, but by week 4, he was playing every snap for the Ravens at SS. Pollard is due a $500,000 roster bonus and it appears all but certain that they will pick that up. He started all but three games for the Ravens and notched 75 tackles, to go along with a pick and 2 sacks. He also forced 3 fumbles and defended 13 passes in coverage. Pollard was an asset in stopping the run, grading out a +3.8 and in pass coverage (+5.5). Overall, his play earned him a +5.3, which was good for 10th among safeties in the NFL. Tom Zbikowski only contributed 228 snaps for Baltimore, grading out at a -1.4 overall. At this point, all signs point to Pollard being the starting SS this season and a strong IDP target, as Zbikowski is not expected to be retained at this point. LaDarius Webb emerged as an IDP asset with 5 INTs this season, though his tackle numbers tailed off during the last few weeks of the season, finishing with 67 tackles, but finished with an impressive 20 defended passes, and most importantly, didn't allow a TD, which resulted in receiving a +12.4 grade in his pass coverage.
What will the Ball-So-Hard Alum, Terrell Suggs, do for an encore in 2012? Not only was Suggs named 2012 Defensive Player of the Year, but he constantly battled double-teams due to lack of help. The hybrid OLB/DE only had two games where he was negatively graded and was a constant threat in the pass rush. Overlooked, however, was his efficiency in helping to stop the run. Suggs finished with 70 tackles and helped force 7 fumbles. Of his tackles, 52 of those were a defensive stop, which resulted in a failure for the offense. Suggs' graded out at a +24.7 in his run defense, which was good for 1st overall among 4-3 DEs. Suggs could've had more than 14 sacks, but due to double-teams, he only notched one sack in the final five weeks of the season, but his 57 total pressures put him among the top 10 defensive linemen. Suggs has a continuous motor and some help along the line, or even at strong-side linebacker can only benefit him more. Paul Kruger saw 374 total snaps in 2011 and graded out at a +12.1 for his pass rushing efficiency and will be a free agent at the end of the 2013 season. Suggs figures to dominate snaps once again in the 2012 season. At defensive tackle, Haloti Ngata continues to be an IDP commodity with his tackle and sack numbers, which are typically tough to come by for an interior linemen. He continues to be one of the more stout run defenders in the league, as he made 21 stops in his 327 run snaps. Ngata will continue to be an IDP target in most formats, especially those leagues that require a DT, as he's one of the more consistent producers.
Cincinnati Bengals
It was expected that with the retirement of Dhani Jones, Rey Maualuga was primed for a break-out season as the starter at MIKE for the Bengals. When he was on the field, he was a solid run-stuffer, grading out at a +6.1, but was a liability in the passing game and he didn't put up the IDP digits that were expected of him as starter. However, it was Thomas Howard, who put up the IDP friendly numbers at WLB, who replaced Keith Rivers because of a wrist injury he was never able to recover from. Howard was supposed to come in, mostly on nickel packages, ended up playing in 158 defensive snaps. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Rivers is under contract through 2013 and is owed $2 million this season, so he might be in the mix for the starting job in 2012. Howard finished the season with his most tackles since the 2008 season with the Raiders (99) and will be under contract this season. He graded out amongst the top 30 4-3 OLBs, but it was Manny Lawson who was the most efficient LB of the group. Lawson finished with a +10.2 grading, but wasn't useful from an IDP standpoint, only finishing with 52 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Dan Skuta played sparsely throughout the season, mostly as a injury fill-in for Maualuga, posting just 31 tackles on the year. Skuta was graded overall at a +2.5, but he's more a special teamer at this point. IDP owners will want to keep a close on Maualuga the remainder of the off-season. Not only did he undergo ankle surgery in January, but he was involved in an assault and is facing charges. If he's found guilty, he's considered a repeat offender and will be subject to suspension.
The enigma that is Carlos Dunlap, confounded and frustrated his IDP owners in 2011. His IDP numbers took a hit this past season, mainly because he missed 5 games due to a bad hamstring. However, don't let the 2011 season get you discouraged for the 2012 season. Dunlap finished with 1.5 sacks in the last 3 weeks of the season, plus his numbers suggest that he was unlucky, not that he wasn't able to get to the QB consistently. Among his 278 pass rush snaps, he generated 47 total QB interruptions (combination of pressures/hits/sacks) and was ranked among the top 15 4-3 DE in pass rushing productivity with a 13.6. After posting 6 sacks in his first two seasons, Michael Johnson racked up 6 sacks in 2011, but only generated 21 pressures and hits in his 700 snaps. Frostee Rucker ended up on IR and will probably be allowed to test the free agent waters. After posting just one sack in 2010, Robert Geathers posted 4 sacks, but in 235 pass rushing snaps, had a 6.0 pass rush productivity. The Bengals could be ready to give both Dunlap and Johnson larger roles in the 2012 season.
The Bengals let Jonathan Joseph walk in free agency and brought in former 49'er Nate Clements to take his spot, and his salary goes from $1 million to $4.3 million in 2012. Clements was targeted 104 times and allowed 54 receptions and 4 TDs scored. His tackling efficiency was okay, only missing 5 tackles in coverage among his 553 passing snaps, but his pass coverage has dwindled as he ranked near the bottom of the league in cover snaps/reception. Among CBs, Clements graded out at a -6.5 for his pass coverage efficiency, compared to the guy they let go in Joseph, who graded out at a +9.0. Leon Hall continued to be a solid cover corner, allowing only 2 scores but only picking off 2 passes but it was Adam Jones who made it rain with a better ratio of cover snaps to receptions with a 14.0, good for 14th among CBs. From an IDP standpoint, Reggie Nelson had a nice season, posting 85 tackles and picking off the most passes (4) since his rookie year and even contributed 2 sacks. For Chris Crocker, the most important thing was that he played a full slate of games for this first time since the 2006 season. His numbers didn't grade out, as he was more efficient in pass rushing with a +2.4 but that was the best part of his game. Kelly Jennings is an UFA, so the Bengals could be in the running for the numerous corners that are available in free agency, like Carlos Rogers, Stanford Routt or Richard Marshall, who's versatile in that he can play corner and safety.
Cleveland Browns
D'Qwell Jackson had a reputation of being fragile heading into the 2011 season, as he had not turned in a full season since 2008. Jackson played under a one-year tender and proved that when he's healthy, he's one of the elite linebackers and tacklers in the league. Jackson finished with 158 tackles and added sacks to his arsenal, notching 3.5. His strength was stopping the run, in which he was graded at a +18.0, which put him 4th among ILB and his +18.3 grade put him 9th overall. 62 of his tackles resulted in stops, which was an offensive failure, or 10.2% of his tackles. His tackling efficiency was also among the tops in the NFL, with one missed tackle in every 16 attempts. Jackson could get the franchise tag from the Browns, with the hopes of getting a long-term deal done. Outside of Jackson, the Browns ‘backers left a lot to be desired. Scott Fujita ended up on IR due to concussion issues and Chris Gocong was more of an asset in the pass rush, as he graded out a +0.6, but the rest of his game faltered. Gocong received the majority of the snaps, just because he's on the Browns, because if he were on any other team, he'd be a nickel backer at best. The Browns need help at LB, as their porous run defense was gashed. Personally, I think someone like Phillip Wheeler would be a good addition, as he'd be one of the cheaper options and graded very favorable in run defense.
GM Tom Heckert hit on Jabaal Sheard, as the rookie found himself thrust into a starting role in the Browns' transitioning 4-3 defense. Sheard played in 970 defensive snaps, racking up 8.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles and adding 55 tackles, all this without really any help on the opposite side, as the Browns used a rotation of the underwhelming Jayme Mitchell (-15.3) and Emmanuel Stephens (-1.7). Sheard did most of his damage from the left side, generating 52 total pressures. His 9 missed tackles led 4-3 DEs and only 5.7% of his tackles did result in a stop, but his tackle numbers still made him an every-week IDP starter. Sheard never stopped driving and it never looked like he was taking any plays off, playing through the whistle. Heading into his second season, he has a solid, all-around game, making him an IDP option. Cleveland is going to have to get some help for Sheard this offseason, as opposing offensive lines are going to game-plan for him. Phil Taylor was drafted to be a run stopping force and his prospects look bright, only missing 2 tackles and generating 20 stop, good for a 5.3% rate. Ahtyba Rubin graded out a +8.9, where his run defense graded out at a respectable +2.4, but runners continued to get to the 2nd level on a stout interior. The help for Cleveland is going to have come on the outside of the defensive line.
I'm going to go ahead and blame Joe Haden's struggles down the stretch on the fact that TJ Ward was absent in the defensive backfield. I know, it's an excuse and shut-down corners shouldn't need that crutch, but he seemed to be a different corner without him, where he was slipping in coverage and making mental mistakes. From week 8 on, Haden only had three grades above +1.0. He was still one of the better corners in the league, only allowing 42 catches on 85 balls thrown his way, but his game slipped slightly in his sophomore year, especially in the penalty department, where he tripled his 2010 number. TJ Ward owners had to endure a frustrating season, as his tackle numbers suffered a steep decline. even before the injury. Was it the transition from 4-3? A healthy D'Qwell Jackson swallowing up defenders? Probably a combination of those things, but he was still efficient in stopping the run, boasting a 6.7 run stop percentage in his limited time on the field. Usama Young, who took over for Ward, proved to be a capable replacement. He'll find himself back on the bench, as Ward should be healthy for the 2012 season and should see the majority of snaps once again. Ward did grade out at a +5.6, good for 9th among safeties, which doesn't provide much comfort for those that drafted him high, but there are signs that a bounce back is possible in 2012. TJ Ward will, more than likely, come cheaper in drafts this season as his numbers should indicate a rebound this season, whereas Joe Haden, will be an IDP target in those leagues requiring a CB.
Pittsburgh Steelers
While Troy Polamalu and his hair continue to be the brand name in Pittsburgh, Ryan Clark put up the tackle numbers, posting his first triple digit tackle campaign of his career. Clark played in 1,009 defensive snaps and posted an 11.7 combined tackle efficiency, but he was better in the run, missing only 1 tackle every 14.5 attempts in the run game. Clark can be considered a fantasy asset as long as he can keep up the strong tackle numbers. Polamalu finished with his best tackle numbers since 2005 and, more importantly for the Steeler defense, he was on the field for all 16 games. In addition to the 91 tackles, Polamalu had 2 INTs and 14 defended passes (most since 2008). Ike Taylor proved to be Pittsburgh's best cover corner, allowing just 40 catches on the 96 balls thrown his way, more importantly, limiting the YAC (yards after catch) to just 108 and was among a group of corners that only allowed 2 scores. William Gay was Pittsburgh's more versatile corner, as he was called on to do a lot more for the defense. He played the slot, played in the run defense and was sent to rush the passer on occasion, but, when you have guys like James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, your chances are going to be limited. Gay is an UFA, and at age 27, should be re-signed by the Steelers. If he is brought back, there's the possibility of him moving to safety, with Keenan Lewis doing his part to impress the coaching staff.
The linebacking group remains one of the most formidable, though some dents in armor emerged with James Harrison missing some time due to an eye injury. Harrison missed 4 games due to the injury and another to suspension, which is also a concern. Even with the time lost, Harrison graded as the 6th best 3-4 OLB at a +23.6, notching 9 sacks in just 11 games. Harrison was also the 2nd most efficient in pass rushing productivity with a 13.6, rushing only 61.2% of the time. The injuries to Harrison didn't help the IDP numbers of Lawrence Timmons, who's tackle numbers took a huge hit after switching to OLB in his absence. He's not a pass rusher and his run stopping abilities were limited, as he was taking on more blockers and not getting to the QB consistently enough. However, once Timmons kicked back in, he went on a tear with 47 tackles in the last 6 games. Among his 302 run snaps, 8.9% of his tackles were stops, resulting in an offensive failure. Timmons should be back on track to repeat his 2010 numbers and should be considered one of the top 10 LBs in IDP leagues. Jason Worilds proved that no matter who goes down, you're just one injury away from stepping up. Worilds was one of three Pittsburgh OLB to be graded among the top 15, grading out at a +4.4, where his pass rushing graded at a +5.3. His run stopping needs to improve, however, grading at a -1.5. He's a year or two away from really having significant IDP value, as he's still playing behind Lamarr Woodley, who's coming off a 10-sack season. Pittsburgh is one of the teams that's most over the salary cap, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some cap casualties from this team.
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