Fantasy: Off-Season Depth Chart Outlook – AFC South

Our Off-season Depth Chart Outlook series concludes today with the AFC South division.

What I’m doing here is going team-by-team and taking a look at each team’s roster situation at the four key offensive Fantasy Football positions (QB RB WR TE). I’ll also be speculating on a few potential off-season moves we could see each of these teams make.

List of 2012 Free Agents at the QB/RB/WR/TE positions

Preliminary 2012 Player Rankings

Houston Texans

Matt Schaub will be back as the team’s starting quarterback in 2012, but he is entering the final year of his contract. Matt Leinart enters a contract year, as well, and will see competition for the number two job from playoff-starter TJ Yates. Jake Delhomme and Jeff Garcia were both signed late in the 2011 season to mentor Yates, but neither are expected to return. Delhomme will reportedly retire.

Arian Foster is a Restricted Free Agent and will be back in 2012 as the team’s workhorse. A strong season by Ben Tate has earned him the number-two job (and maybe even a larger role) next season. Considering Foster’s massive workload over the past two seasons, Tate could easily be the most sought after handcuff in Fantasy Football next year. Derrick Ward is an UFA and there’s a good chance he looks elsewhere for a larger workload after dropping to third on the depth chart this past season. James Davis was on the Practice Squad, but has yet to receive a Futures contract. Javarris Williams currently sits fourth on the depth chart after he did land a Futures deal.

Andre Johnson is signed up through 2016 and as is close to a workhorse as you’ll find at the wideout position. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones each have 2+ years left on their contracts, but it’s no secret that the Texans will be looking to upgrade at the position via the draft or Free Agency. Walter has been used as a down-field presence quite a bit over the years by the Texans, but has very good hands and good be a fine fit as a part-time possession receiver. Jones has had his share of big plays, but is not an ideal 40+ snaps wide receiver. The team’s goal this off-season will be to add a wide receiver who will take some defensive attention away from Johnson. Mario Manningham and Robert Meachem are among the best available deep threats. Reggie Wayne and Eddie Royal stand out in terms of available possession receivers. Meanwhile, Bryant Johnson is an UFA and played very little for Houston this past season. Jeff Maehl and Lester Jean will join Futures contract recipients Trindon Holliday and Juaquin Iglesias in camp.

Owen Daniels was extended through 2014 and will return as the team’s every-down tight end next season. The Texans will work hard to lock up UFA Joel Dreessen for a few more seasons after he played 771 snaps this past season. H-Back Garrett Graham and TE/FB James Casey are both signed through next season and give Houston one of the best/deepest groups of Tight Ends in the league. Considering the team’s run-first philosophy, though, they’ll need to act if Dreessen signs elsewhere. Martellus Bennett makes a lot of sense, but John Carlson and Visanthe Shiancoe fit, as well.

Indianapolis Colts

Of all the depth chart battles that will be examined at offensive skill positions this off-season, none will get more attention than the Colts’ quarterback situation. Peyton Manning missed the entire 2011 season, but is signed (very expensively) through 2015. The Colts will absolutely select Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in April’s draft, which means that the team’s management has a decision to make. Do they keep Manning and allow Luck to develop behind him or do they cut/trade Manning and go forward with the rookie. It’s anyone’s guess at this point. Behind those two guys, Dan Orlovsky is an UFA, but played well enough to earn consideration as a No. 2 in 2012. Curtis Painter, signed through 2012, hasn’t been up the task when called upon to start in his career and could be cut loose. Kerry Collins will retire.

The Colts running back situation is also one worth monitoring. Former first round pick Donald Brown finally emerged this year and has to be the favorite to lead the backfield in touches next season. He’ll have plenty of competition, however, with both Joseph Addai and Delone Carter under contract for, at least, another two seasons. Addai is scheduled to make $2.9 million plus potential bonuses in 2012 and could be a cap casualty as the team looks to rebuild. Darren Evans was given a Futures contract and should be in the mix for the No. 3 or 4 job.

Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are both UFAs, which could lead to an overhaul at the position. The team appears to be heading towards a rebuild, which would mean Wayne’s career as a member of the Colts would be over. Garcon is only 25 and was essentially the Co-number-one wide receiver in 2011 anyways. Management figures to prioritize him over Wayne this off-season. Austin Collie is locked up through 2012 and could end up as a starter in 2-WR sets if Wayne departs. Anthony Gonzalez is an UFA and his underwhelming Colts’ career is likely over. Blair White is signed for another season and will compete for a job as a return man and part-timer in the slot. Quan Cosby was acquired to help out on returns and is unlikely to return. Jeremy Ross and Jarred Fayson were given Futures contracts.

Dallas Clark is signed for another two seasons, but he’s already being rumored as a potential cap casualty as the team looks to go younger on offense. He’s 32 years old and due $4.5 million plus incentives in 2012. The problem with simply cutting him loose is the situation behind him on the depth chart. Jacob Tamme is an UFA and will get some attention on the open market after a very productive 2010 season in place of an injured Clark. The Colts would need to re-sign Tamme before they could consider cutting Clark. Blocker Brody Eldridge is signed through 2013 and the Colts also have the exclusive rights to Anthony Hill.

Jacksonville Jaguars

A first-round draft pick in 2011, Blaine Gabbert certainly did not perform as hoped in his rookie campaign. That being said, the team around him wasn’t very good, including arguably the worst group of wide receivers in football (no offense, Mike Thomas). He’s the current Week 1 favorite for next season, but the signing of a veteran like Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, or Chad Henne wouldn’t be a surprise. Luke McCown is an UFA and, as mentioned, the team will likely look to upgrade the position. Dan LeFevour was brought in during the season and will push for the No. 3 job.

Maurice Jones-Drew has two more years left on his contract and will be the workhorse again next season after leading the NFL in rushing in 2011. Rashad Jennings spent all of this past season on IR, but his replacements weren’t very good, which should secure him the No. 2 job heading into camp. DuJuan Harris moved past Deji Karim as the handcuff to MJD this past season, but he’s not much more than replacement level talent. Both players will compete for the No. 3 job in 2012. Montell Owens works at tailback and fullback and should be back after being extended through 2015. Richard Murphy is also on the roster, but is a longshot to make the team.

Mike Thomas still sits as the team’s top wide receiver and has a great chance to start again next season, but it would be a monumental upset if the team doesn’t look to upgrade the position significantly this off-season. Thomas has worked better closer to the line of scrimmage and could stick as a possession wideout if the team lands a deep threat. Brandon Lloyd, Pierre Garcon, Robert Meachem, and Mario Manningham will be on the radar. They’re also familiar with Reggie Wayne, who wouldn’t be a bad compliment to Thomas, but they’d still need a situational deep threat. Jarett Dillard and Cecil Shorts are signed through, at least, next season and will compete for work in the slot and/or on the bench. Chastin West saw plenty of work down the stretch in 2011 and will get a chance to compete for a roster spot. Also under contract are Kassim Osgood, Taylor Price, and Brian Robiskie. They’ll join the competition for one or two roster spots.

Marcedes Lewis had a very disappointing 2011, but is signed through 2015 and is a sure bet to be back as the team’s every-down tight end next season. Zach Miller spent a large chunk of this past season on IR, but returns in a contract season. He’ll be looking to finally progress into the receiving threat he was projected to be. The team has exclusive rights to Martin Rucker, but he’s a long-shot to make the team with Miller healthy. The Jaguars also have the rights to RFA Zach Potter and Colin Cloherty could be in camp to push for a reserve job.

Tennessee Titans

One of the better quarterback competitions in camp next season will be between the veteran Matt Hasselbeck and the up-and-coming second-year man Jake Locker. Hasselbeck was given a three-year deal last off-season, but was outplayed by Locker (albeit in a small sample size) during the 2011 season. Titans’ management has already called this an open competition. Rusty Smith will likely get some competition for the No. 3 job.

Chris Johnson is locked up through 2016 and, although there have been and will continue to be rumors that he will be waived, feel free to ignore them. He will be the team’s workhorse again in 2012. Javon Ringer snagged some extra snaps during the 2011 season because of Johnson’s struggles, but disappointed himself with a 3.1 YPC. He enters a contract year and will compete with Jamie Harper for a chance to spell Johnson. Herb Donaldson landed a Futures contract.

Kenny Britt missed a majority of the 2011 season with an injury, but was one of the league’s most dominant forces at the position prior to going down. He’ll be back as the team’s unquestioned No. 1 wideout. Nate Washington quietly had a rather productive year, but will have to fend off Damian Williams for a starting job in 2-WR sets going forward. Lavelle Hawkins finally worked his way into a situational role in 2011, but is an UFA and No. 4 on the depth chart is best case scenario in Tennessee. Marc Mariani will be back, but focuses mostly on returning kicks and punts. Donnie Avery is an UFA and will hope to latch onto a team in need of depth at the position. OJ Murdock will be in camp to compete with three receivers who received Futures contracts: James Kirkendoll, Michael Preston, and Darius Reynaud.

Jared Cook spent a lot of time running routes this season (479 routes on 575 snaps to be exact), but didn’t emerge into a Fantasy force until the last couple of games. This comes after he exploded for two big games late in the 2010 season before not offering much production in the passing game until the aforementioned last few games of this past season. It’s hard to know what to expect in 2012, but it’s fair to say that Kenny Britt (and not Cook) will be featured in the passing game. Either way, Cook should be atop the tight end depth chart, which will lead to plenty of snaps, and thus targets. Consider that the Titans called a pass on 86.3% of Cook’s snaps in 2011. Even if that number drops, it still says a lot about what they think of him as a receiver. Craig Stevens will be back as his blocking compliment after landing an extension through 2015 just recently. Daniel Graham was locked up through 2013, but isn’t a slam dunk to return. He will get some competition for the job. Cameron Graham was given a Futures deal.

Follow Mike Clay on Twitter: @PFF_MikeClay