We have now reached the end of my first eight weeks with the fantasy part of PFF. When you think of the NFC West, there is probably just one tight end to come to mind and for good reason. Every tight end in the NFC West had 400 yards or less except for Vernon Davis who had more than double this number.
The Rams and Cardinals have their top tight ends from 2010 as free agents going into the year, and the Seahawks cut their second best fantasy tight end from 2010. This leaves a lot of questions when it comes to the tight ends who will be playing next year, as well as the quarterbacks who will be throwing to them. This might make these projections a little premature, but it’s never too early to get to know some of these names so you’re ready for the drafts come August.
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The Best of the Best: Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
Current 2011 Projections: 97 TA, 64 Rec., 894 yards, 8 TD
Analysis: Over these eight weeks, picking Davis for the best in the division was the easiest choice I’ve made. His 2010 season was filled with inconsistency, as 9 of his games he had 70 yards or more, while in the other seven he had 36 or less. He led all tight ends in yards per catch with 16.3, although his 64% catch rate was a little below average.
Like most tight ends he was most successful in the middle of the field. Between 0 and 20 yards, he had 452 yards and six touchdowns; both better than any other individual tight end in the division on the whole field. There were quarterback issues last year, and the possibility of getting a better situation next year might put him even higher up in the tight end rankings.
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Moving On Up: Jim Dray, Arizona Cardinals
Current 2011 Projections: 42 TA, 24 Rec., 268 yards, 1 TD
Analysis: The Cardinals were a fantasy wasteland last year. The top two tight ends last year were Stephen Spach and Ben Patrick; both of whom are free agents. Neither man is necessary for the Cardinals to resign, which leaves Jim Dray as the current top guy in Arizona. He was a seventh round pick last year and averaged four snaps a game for the first parts of the season. Then in Week 11, he saw significantly more playing time.
He didn’t show much in 2010, with just three catches for 47 yards and a drop. However the Cardinals quarterback situation can’t get much worse, so the Cardinals overall tight end numbers should be the same as last year or a little better. If they get better, Dray could very well be the guy to get the catches.
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On The Way Down: Daniel Fells, St. Louis Rams
Current 2011 Projections: None
Analysis: The Rams are the only team in the division where we know who the quarterback will be coming into the year. In 2010 Fells was an alright short pass catcher, with only 9.5 yards per catch and only five of his catches coming from passes beyond 10 yards. Both him and Billy Bajema had very low PFF ratings, so it’s likely time for a chance in St. Louis.
Fells is a free agent, so he is most likely to be the one to go. Michael Hoomanawanui saw limiting action on the year, but looked good when he played and should get a larger opportunity in 2011. If Fells returns, he should see a good number of his targets lost to Hoomanawanui, and if he signs with another team he likely will be a backup and not see as many targets ether.
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A Name To Remember: John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks
Current 2011 Projections: 51 TA, 33 Rec., 362 yards, 3 TD
Analysis: The reason Carlson’s name is here is because of his high draft pick status a few years ago and the Seahawks commitment to him. His PFF ratings haven’t been strong over the years, but the Seahawks continue to feed him the ball. The Seahawks second tight end from 2010, Chris Baker was already cut.
While this probably means more time for Cameron Morrah, John Carlson still seems to have a hold at the top spot in Seattle. It will be his fourth year, which should be a make or break year for him. He played at a high level his rookie year in 2008, so we know he is capable of it. If he does manage to step up and be a factor in this division, then he might be worth a look as a backup fantasy option.
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