Fantasy: IDP Bets for Breakout - Colin McCarthy

Over the next several weeks, I'm going to take a look at some LBs that have a chance to make a huge impact in IDP leagues in 2012, much like the  impact Navorro Bowman had in 2011. My first piece highlighted Kelvin Sheppard and his expectation for breakout. For this hand, I double down on Titans MLB, Colin McCarthy.

McCarthy started 35 games for the University of Miami and moved to MIKE during his senior season.  He was a standout his senior year, as he finished with 119 tackles, while also compiling 11 tackles for a loss. He was an All-ACC honorable mention and was a solo tackling machine while at the ‘U'. He has good instincts to get to the ball and doesn't get fooled easily, but his weakness was the passing game, but, the Titans eventually made him a 4th round pick in the 2011  draft.

Right out of the gate, it was expected that McCarthy would win the MIKE or SAM job because of his strengths and instincts, as well as the fact that the Titans were expected to lose Stephen Tulloch to free agency.  As the lockout progressed and came to an end, the Titans signed former Buccaneer LB, Barrett Ruud, to a one-year deal. Ruud, even with the tackle numbers that he put up in Tampa, was just an average LB that struggled in run defense and had average range. He logged grades of -0.5, -9.9 and -5.4 in run defense over the past three seasons. Up until Week 9, Ruud was on the field for, virtually, every snap until shoulder and groin injuries knocked him out in Week 11. Up until that point, however, he wasn't very effective in his play even though he recorded 58 tackles in 9 games. His grading told a different story, as he missed 10 tackles, resulting in an overall grade of -13.6.

McCarthy had logged just 7 snaps and appeared in 2 games before getting a start in Week 10, where he notched 8 tackles and 2 total QB pressures, grading out at a +2.1. Ruud came back in Week 11, but McCarthy still logged 49 defensive snaps and recorded 9 solo tackles. McCarthy was named the starter from Week 12 on, and never looked back. From an IDP standpoint, he was a solid contributor for those that scooped him up from the wire, notching 47 tackles during the stretch run of the fantasy season, in weeks 10-16. In addition to the tackles, he also had an interception, forced 2 fumbles and defended 3 passes. Most importantly, from weeks 12 through 16, he played every single down for the Titans. He's not going to be confused for a pass rusher, as he only rushed the passer on 37 of his 311 passing downs. When he was on the field, he made a solo tackle in 10.1% of his snaps and made a tackle/assist in 11.4% of his snaps.  In looking at his tackle efficiency, he had better tackling efficiency in the passing game, missing just 1 tackle per 9.7 attempts, but missed 1 every 7 attempts in the passing game. Looking at his play as a whole, he just needs to improve his technique and make the tackle. McCarthy's run stop percentage, meaning plays that he made that resulted in a loss for the offense, was a 10.6. Which means, among his 199 run snaps, 21 of those tackles that he made in the run, resulted in a loss for the offense, which bodes well for his play-making ability. Looking at his overall run game, if he can improve upon his tackling efficiency numbers, he'll definitely be able to improve upon his -1.7 grade in run defense.

McCarthy was on the field for 278 passing snaps and allowed 25 catches on 36 targets, which was good for a 69.4 completion percentage on balls thrown his way in 2011. But looking at those numbers further, he was good in pursuit and going after the ball, as he only allowed 124 yards after the catch. There's reason to think that he can be a good pass defender, or at the very least, make big plays to stop opposing drives. McCarthy did grade out a +2.6 for his pass coverage, so unless the Titans sign a big name LB in the off-season, there's little reason to believe he'll come off the field on passing downs.

McCarthy logged 542 snaps in 2011 and we're projecting those snaps to increase by over 200% this season, as he should be on the field for well over 1,000 snaps this season. Coach Mike Munchak has stated that he's ready for the increased role on the defense and feels more than comfortable using him as an every-down LB. There's some learning, as there always is at the MIKE, but Munchak likes the progression and improvements he's made. With that vote of confidence, he's going to be an LB with upside in most IDP leagues, because of the fact that he'll be starting and playing all downs. I like him as an LB2, but there's no reason to think he couldn't put up LB1 numbers. Because of the confidence instilled him, he's going to be a target of choice in many IDP leagues and makes a solid LB2 candidate with upside. Here's my projections for McCarthy heading into 2012:

The Titans are going to move on from Barrett Ruud and proceed with McCarthy as their MIKE, so looking at the projected number of increase in snaps, there's no reason to think that he won't eclipse the 100 tackle mark this season. McCarthy is going to be valued in tackle heavy leagues, where tackle count for 1.5pts or more, but because of the lack of big plays, he may go under-valued in leagues that devalue tackles. Stephen Tulloch was a very successful MIKE for the Titans, so if McCarthy can put up similar numbers at the position, then go all-in with the former Hurricane in 2012.

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