Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy football team preview: Detroit Lions

DETROIT, MI - JANUARY 01: Golden Tate #15 of the Detroit Lions celebrates with teammate Marvin Jones #11 after scoring a late second quarter touchdown during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field on January 1, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Many a football fan – including yours truly – knew very little about Jim Bob Cooter when the Lions promoted him to offensive coordinator after moving on from Joe Lombardi halfway through the 2015 season. He had an undeniably awesome name, but there was little known about the style of offense he’d implement. A season and a half later, we know that Cooter’s offense is up-tempo variation of the Erhardt-Perkins offense that has gotten the ball in receiver’s hands in space with shorter passes. This has allowed them to run after the catch. The Lions also primarily deploy zone blocking.

Team Offensive Stats

DET Rank Lg Avg
Snaps/Gm 63.0 29 65.3
Pace (Sec/Sn) 25.67 31 24.28
Run % 34.7% 29 39.8%
Pass % 65.3% 3 60.2%
% Leading 31.9% 22 36.0%

Quarterback

Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Cooter’s offense has been Matthew Stafford. Since Cooter took over, only five quarterbacks have scored more fantasy points than Stafford. The offensive scheme riffs very well with Stafford’s game, and it’s helped him to a 65 percent completion rate in each of the last two seasons. His previous career-high was 63.5 percent. Stafford has also consistently produced from a yardage standpoint with 4,000-plus in each of the last six years. He’s finished as the No. 7 fantasy quarterback in both 2015 and 2016, but continually is overlooked by the drafting public. That means you can likely get Stafford on the cheap on draft day if you’re so inclined to take a late-round quarterback approach.

Vacated Touches

2016 Touches % Vacated
Carries 313 4.2%
Targets 557 21.9%
Total 870 15.5%

Running backs

Detroit’s backfield has the potential to be the quintessential committee this season with Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick, and Zach Zenner all in the mix to get touches. For fantasy purposes, Abdullah is the best bet to be a viable option across all scoring formats. He’s the lead back and figures to have a prominent role on early downs.

Abdullah missed most of last season with a foot injury, but did get off to a strong start with a seventh-place finish in fantasy scoring among running backs in Week 1. However, he struggled for much of his 2015 rookie season, finishing a lowly 44th at the position. The presence of Riddick caps Abdullah’s upside, especially in PPR formats. There are also rumblings that Zenner could be in the mix for goal-line work. And we haven’t even mentioned the Lions lackluster offensive line. All of these concerns make it tough to endorse Abdullah as anything more than a front-end RB3 option to start the season.

In standard scoring leagues, fantasy drafters will want to fade Riddick. However, he’s worth of RB3 consideration in PPR formats. He ranked eighth among running backs in targets last season and second in 2015. While he’s unlikely to see much work on early downs, it’s a good bet that his volume as a receiver continues this year. Zenner isn’t likely to surface on the fantasy radar, but he’s Abdullah’s primary handcuff and could end up being a touchdown vulture at points this year.

Rushing Stats

DET Rank Lg Avg
YPC 3.74 27 4.18
YCo/Att 2.44 16 2.43
YBCo/Att 1.31 28 1.76
Inside Zone 28.3% 11 26.0%
Outside Zone 26.6% 16 27.7%
Power 8.3% 23 9.5%
Man 8.0% 16 15.0%

Wide receivers

He doesn’t necessarily fit the mold as a No. 1 receiver, but Golden Tate has been just that for the Lions. He’s topped 1,000 yards in two of three seasons in Detroit, finishing as a WR2 or better all three years. Tate got off to a slow start last season with no top-25 finishes over the first five weeks. However, he picked things up from there finishing in the top-25 among receivers six times with five in the top-10 and one first-place finish coming in Week 13. Tate lacks major touchdown upside – his career high was seven in 2012 – but his consistent volume bodes well for fantasy production. He’s a borderline WR2 in standard and a rock solid WR2 option in PPR.

Early last season, it looked like we were witnessing Marvin Jones’ coming out party. The former Bengals wideout went for 100 yards in Week 2 and then put up a massive 205 yards and two scores in Week 3. However, this three-game stretch ended up being a fantasy mirage. From that point on, he ranked a lowly 59th among wide receivers in fantasy scoring. Jones’ high weekly ceiling makes him DFS candidate, but his low floor is far from desirable in season-long formats.

Rookie Kenny Golladay is likely to man the No. 3 duties for the Lions this year. He’s a tall (6-4, 218) and fast (4.50 40 time) wide receiver who isn’t particularly effective after the catch with just 3.6 YAC and eight forced missed tackles last year. However, his abilities as a field stretcher and as a big-bodied red-zone target make Golladay a name to know in deeper leagues.

Wide Receiver Sets

% Rank Lg Avg Throw% Rk Lg Avg
2-Wide 15.9% 28 24.5% 32.5% 30 45.0%
3-Wide 67.6% 3 55.5% 70.6% 7 66.1%
4-Wide 3.4% 5 2.9% 88.2% 15 81.6%

Tight end

The fantasy jury still seems to be out on Eric Ebron. Perhaps the biggest reason for Ebron’s depressed fantasy stock is his lack of touchdown productivity last year. He found the end zone on a reception just once. At the same time, he tied for ninth among tight ends in targets with 85, his 61 catches ranked 10th, and he finished eighth in yards with 711. Even a little positive regression in the touchdown department moves Ebron into the top-10 range among tight ends, and you likely will not have to take him there. Ebron is a high-upside late-round option at the position this year.

Personnel Groupings

% Rank Lg Avg Throw% Rk Lg Avg
11 66.2% 5 53.5% 70.8% 7 33.5%
12 9.5% 28 15.6% 37.5% 27 50.2%
21 4.0% 21 6.9% 27.5% 27 62.5%

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