- Joe Mixon’s consistency has been his greatest asset: Mixon has established himself as one of the most reliable fantasy running backs since entering the league.
- The intriguing upside of RJ Harvey: The second-round rookie steps into an intriguing opportunity with the Denver Broncos, where he has the potential to emerge as Sean Payton’s lead back in 2025.
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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
This fantasy football article series breaks down the toughest draft-day decisions facing fantasy managers, using Underdog’s average draft position (ADP) as a guide. Each installment compares similarly ranked players at the same position, using key stats from previous seasons and contextual factors — including team situation — to identify the better pick.
Today’s matchup will highlight Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon and Denver Broncos rookie running back RJ Harvey as we determine the best option in Round 5 of 2025 fantasy drafts.
While Mixon enters the season with an NFL role already in place, Harvey has yet to play a professional snap, so all of his data in this comparison, including three-year metrics, comes from his college career at UCF. Only Mixon’s NFL statistics are used in this analysis.
JOE MIXON (RB16) vs. RJ HARVEY (RB17)
Joe Mixon’s year-over-year consistency has been one of his defining traits, cementing his status as one of the most reliable fantasy running backs since entering the league. He finished as the PPR RB13 in 2024, marking the sixth time since 2018 that he has reached that benchmark. Given his track record, it’s reasonable to expect a similar level of production from Mixon again this season.
Rookie RJ Harvey enters the NFL with Day 2 draft capital and lands in a favorable spot for potential fantasy success. Sean Payton’s offense has been seeking a true three-down back, and Harvey could be the answer. He posted strong numbers as both a runner and receiver in college, positioning him as a candidate to take on a significant workload in Denver.
UTILIZATION IN THE RUNNING GAME
Mixon handled the majority of carries for the Texans in 2024, mirroring the workhorse role he maintained for several years with the Cincinnati Bengals. However, his involvement in the two-minute drill was minimal, as he played just six of a possible 96 snaps in those situations and didn’t record a single carry. That role went to Dare Ogunbowale, limiting Mixon’s opportunities in a key area for pass-catching backs and creating a notable gap in his usage profile last season.
In Denver, the lead back in 2024 was Javonte Williams, who accounted for just over 40% of the team’s running back carries, a number that declined as the season progressed. After recording double-digit carries in six of his first nine games, he failed to hit that mark in any of the final nine. Harvey has a chance to break that trend, backed by the team’s investment and his strong rushing profile coming out of college, including a 95.1 career rushing grade that ranked in the 91st percentile among running back prospects since 2017.
UTILIZATION IN THE PASSING GAME
While Mixon wasn’t heavily involved in two-minute drill situations, he still operated as the Texans’ lead back in passing-down scenarios overall. Though he’s never been among the league’s most dynamic or heavily targeted backs in the passing game, Mixon continues to hold down that role thanks to his reliability and ability to handle a high-volume workload week after week. That role is unlikely to shift significantly in 2025.
Harvey enters the NFL with a solid receiving résumé from his time at UCF, where he averaged 20 receptions and over 200 receiving yards per season, complementing nearly 3,000 rushing yards since 2023. He projects as the early favorite to handle passing-down duties in Denver. Since Sean Payton took over in 2023, the Broncos lead the league in running back receptions (214), a trend consistent with Payton’s tenure in New Orleans, where his backfields totaled a league-high 1,074 receptions from 2013 to 2021.
UTILIZATION IN SCORING RANGE
Mixon reached double-digit rushing touchdowns for just the second time in his eight-year career in 2024, largely thanks to his usage in high-leverage scoring situations. Around the goal line, he was especially effective, converting six of his 11 rushing touchdowns from goal-to-go scenarios. He dominated those opportunities, surrendering just one such carry to another Texans running back all season.
In Denver, Javonte Williams handled the majority of goal-line work in 2024, taking 10 of the team’s 15 running back carries in goal-to-go situations. For Harvey to assume that role, he’ll need to outperform Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin, who combined for just five carries in those scenarios last season. While the Broncos may rotate backs situationally, the combination of team investment and lack of proven competition suggests Harvey is well-positioned to lead the way in short-yardage and scoring opportunities in 2025.
TEAM-LEVEL SITUATION
Both teams ranked below average in run rate last season, despite finishing slightly above average in offensive scoring. The Broncos posted a top-12 run-blocking grade, while the Texans struggled up front, finishing 27th in that category. With multiple offseason departures along Houston’s offensive line, those issues could persist — a potential concern for Mixon, who has seen a dip in rushing efficiency in recent years.
POTENTIAL 2025 BACKFIELD COMPETITION
With Nick Chubb now in Houston on a one-year deal, he poses the most notable competition to Mixon’s workload. However, Chubb will need to be significantly more effective than he was in 2024 to challenge for a major role. Returning from a devastating knee injury suffered in 2023, Chubb failed to regain his prior form, finishing with career lows in rushing grade (62.5), yards per carry (3.3), and most other key metrics before being shut down after just eight games. While a bounce-back season isn’t out of the question, it’s unlikely he recaptures a level of play that would consistently threaten Mixon’s RB1 role.
In Denver, Jaleel McLaughlin saw his role expand late in the 2024 season, overtaking Javonte Williams as the lead early-down option. He posted three double-digit carry games over the final four weeks. Still, as a former undrafted free agent who delivered mixed results with increased volume, McLaughlin may slide back into a secondary role with Harvey now in the fold.
While the final decision is yours, don’t go into your draft blind. Check out PFF’s latest fantasy football rankings to see exactly where Joe Mixon, RJ Harvey and the rest of your targets stack up heading into 2025.
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