Football Stock Market is a weekly article during the NFL season which examines players you should buy or sell in your fantasy league.
Buy
RB Ryan Mathews – Chargers
Week 7 Stats: 13 Att, 39 Yds, 4 Rec (5Tgts), 26 Yds, 0 TDs
A few weeks back, it seemed like the last possible opportunity to buy Ryan Mathews at a low-cost. If you missed doing so prior to week 3, you were likely seen shaking your fist at him as he scored twice against the Chiefs. Thankfully, we are sometimes blessed with second chances in life. This is one of them.
Coming off his first negative rating (-1.4) of the season and third consecutive game without a touchdown, owners are willing to listen with intent to upgrade. While Mathews has lost a few goal line touches to Mike Tolbert, there is little competition for overall touches. Thus far, Mathews leads the way with 122 compared to Tolbert’s 75. At first glance, 47 more does not seem like much but keep one thing in mind. Tolbert actually led the way coming into the third game. Mark this as a positive check mark in favor of Mathews.
Something else I am fond of is his schedule. Up next are the improving Chiefs, but take their improvement with a grain of salt. Their three consecutive wins have come against teams with very poor quarterback play. In this span, they saw four quarterbacks. Each with a PFF QB rating of less than 80. In their three losses, each opposing quarterback rates above this line. Their schedule also includes the Bills, Lions, Raiders, Jaguars and Broncos. Each leads to a path of success.
The Bills are allowing lead backs, plus a trio of Patriots, to average 4.6 yards per carry. They allowed five rushing scores and two through the air. Yards against is much worse for the Lions. Against them, the opponent’s lead man is averaging 5.9 per attempt in the past three games. The lone bright spot in this string of games is only Frank Gore has scored. Facing the Raiders should provide some more glory. While Mathews is not on the same level as Fred Jackson this season, an argument can be made he is better than any other back they have faced. Jackson tore the Raiders apart with 117 yards rushing and two touchdowns. This was done on 17 rushing attempts. We've seen what Mathews can do against the Broncos. Three weeks ago he ran for 125 yards. This has been his only 100 yard rushing effort this season. Finally, the Jaguars may pose a tough test. They have allowed only one back to rise above the 100 yard mark. Plus, they just held Ray Rice to 28 yards rushing. In reality, Chris Johnson, Shonn Greene, Jonathan Stewart, the Saints trio, Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall and Rice have combined to average 4.5 yards per carry. If the carries continue to increase, look for Mathews to become the second back to reach 100 yards against the Jaguars.
You'll probably just wait again. Third time will be the charm, right? Don't hold your breath. Plus, if a third opportunity arrives, it will likely be due to another nagging injury. Let's hope not.
RB Shonn Greene – Jets
Week 7 Stats: 20 Att, 112 Yds, 0 TDs
The hold section was Shonn Greene’s home last week. To those who did, I still suggest staying the course. For those who do not own Greene, buy him now. After a third straight game with at least 20 rushing attempts, it is time to take the next step. His two touchdowns will still concern owners enough. Buy him for all the same reason’s I wanted current owners to hold last week.
QB Joe Flacco – Ravens
Week 7 Stats: 21/37, 137 Yds, 1 TD, 1 Int
I would like to dedicate this one to all the Aaron Rodgers owners. His bye week is here. You knew it was coming. I hope you were prepared. If not and you found the waiver-wire pickings to be slim, I present your solution. Buy Joe Flacco. Yes, that Joe Flacco. The same guy a national audience has seen look like an undeserving starter. Even he will look like Tom Brady against the Cardinals.
While Flacco is the same guy who has a rating of -8.7 between his two nationally televised games, he is also the same guy we saw score ratings of 4.1, 2.6 and 1.2 in three of his other four games. This included three touchdown passes and 389 yards against the Rams.
Look for Flacco to reward you greatly this week. Other than Tarvaris Jackson and Donovan McNabb, each opposing quarterback has thrown for at least two touchdowns against the Cardinals. This same group has also averaged slightly shy of 350 yards passing. Flacco will find it easy to approach these numbers. I doubt you can say the same about any quarterback still available in free agency.
Hold
QB Philip Rivers – Chargers
Week 7 Stats: 16/32, 179 Yds, 1 TD, 2 Ints
Speculation is nothing more than an opinion based on incomplete evidence. Until we have complete certainty, we can merely guess as to why Philip Rivers is struggling thus far. Some believe injuries to those around him have played a role. From watching film, others are concerned he may have an injury. These fears have me weary of buying him. Rather, allow me to focus my attention towards those already owning Rivers.
There are two directions you should consider. First, allow the next few weeks to unfold. With a healthy array of offensive weapons, Rivers might return to old form. As for the second path. The upcoming weeks provide an opportunity for increased value. This will allow you to explore all trading options.
In his first outing against the Chiefs, Rivers was held to zero touchdowns. It was actually his worst game of the season. According to PFF’s QB rating, he scored a lowly 63.57. It was the only time he was graded negatively (-1.0) in the passing game. The hope is Antonio Gates will be enough of a difference maker to get that rating back where it should be. If he can excel, I would hold off for one more week. The Packers are up next. This is a defense that can force Rivers into interceptions. At the same time, Rivers could torch them for more than 300 yards passing and a couple touchdowns. Heck, even Christian Ponder threw two touchdown passes.
With his value being so low, there is little to lose in waiting at least two more weeks. If he shows some of what he is known for, you’ll certainly have a nice problem on your hands.
Sell
WR Plaxico Burress – Jets
Week 7 Stats: 4 Rec (8 Tgts), 25 Yds, 3 TDs
I’m hopeful you either did not play Burress last weekend or you only played him as a replacement for someone on their bye week. If he is not a necessary commodity, are you truly going to hold onto someone averaging -0.05 for their weekly rating? Even with this week’s performance, he still catches fewer than three passes per game while averaging less than 35 yards receiving. If this isn’t enough reason to sell as fast as you can, don’t allow yourself to forget Mark Sanchez is still his quarterback.
According to the PFF signature stats, Sanchez scores a quarterback rating of 78.35. Based on quarterbacks taking at least half their team’s dropbacks, this ranks him 26 of 30. There are also 25 quarterbacks with a higher completion percentage than his 55.8. Don’t get fooled into thinking his time is coming. He still has a long way to go, and may not ever achieve the status some hope for. Do yourself a favor and sell Burress now.
RB DeMarco Murray – Cowboys
Week 7 Stats: 25 Att, 253 Yds, 1 TD
Admit it. You love being the smartest person in the room. I can see you right now. You’re pounding your chest, raising your arms in victory and reciting the college stats of DeMarco Murray. You saw this coming from miles away. Well smarty pants, what’s your next move? Wait. You’re uncertain? Allow me to clue you in. The answer depends on why you added him in the first place.
There are countless reasons fantasy owners added and played Murray last weekend. Felix Jones owners saw it as a natural transition with Jones being injured again. If this is you, I highly recommend holding onto him. A few weeks back I discussed the reasons to buy Jones. These now apply to Murray.
Not all scenarios are created equal though. Some of you added him for various other reasons. In some cases you are left with nothing more than a weekly headache. If you can make an argument for owning three running backs you would rank ahead of Murray, don’t let your ego interfere. Sell him now, especially if you need drastic help elsewhere.
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