Fantasy: Football Stock Market - Week 5

Football Stock Market is a weekly article during the NFL season which examines
players you should buy or sell in your fantasy league.

Buy
WR Marques Colston – Saints
Week 4 Stats: 1 Rec (3 Tgts), 8 Yds

After researching his performance in this past weekend’s game, it sounds like the Saints were treating Colston like a pitcher on a pitch count. This explains him being on the field for only 36.9% of the offensive snaps. Based on snaps played, he would be considered the team’s fourth wide receiver. Wise fantasy players know this will not continue as long as his body cooperates. Only the offensive line and Drew Brees played more snaps than Colston in week one, and no player saw more passes thrown their direction. Specifically for PPR leagues, you should grab him now before his owner realizes he is gaining his full-time spot back.
QB Matt Schaub – Texans
Week 4 Stats: 14/21 138 Yds, 1 TD

Matt Schaub's Production Through Four Games: 

It’s eerie how similar Schaub’s first four games this season are to his first four last season. If he is also able to repeat his finish from last season there is a steal to be had. Last season he finished with per game averages of 341.2 yards and two touchdowns during week’s 13-16. In no way does this mean history will repeat itself, but it serves as a reminder he still has value. Rather than waiting until Andre Johnson returns from injury, I would buy now. Be ahead of the curve and grab him as a low-priced backup.

RB Felix Jones – Cowboys

Week 4 Stats: 16 Att, 57 Yds, 5 Rec (7 Tgts), 19 Yds

If you’ve had a desire to buy on Felix Jones then don’t wait until after his bye week. Bite the bullet and do it now. He is about to explode. I will keep this simple by showing you a chart explaining why his remaining schedule feeds into this.

One last thing to add; when we did our staff predictions for 2011, Jones was my choice for the player to have the biggest fantasy breakout. Now you know why.

Hold

WR Deion Branch – Patriots

Week 4 Stats: 1 Rec (3 Tgts), 4 Yds, 1 TD

Don’t have a panic attack just yet. My guess is it would be difficult to get any value for Branch after two lackluster performances. Oh, and please don’t drop him. It’s not wise releasing a starting wide receiver whose quarterback is Tom Brady, especially one who shined so bright in the first two weeks.

With the Patriots last season, Branch had five games of less than 40 yards receiving, and he caught less than three passes on four occasions. He also caught seven or more passes four times and exceeded 100 receiving yards twice. This is who he is. Stay patient with him for now. Maybe it’s no coincidence his numbers dipped with Aaron Hernandez out. Since Hernandez is expected back soon, wait and see if Branch can repeat the numbers he started the season with. In case you forgot, Wes Welker was only targeted four more times than Branch through two games.

RB LeGarrette Blount – Buccaneers

Week 4 Stats: 25 Att, 127 Yds, 1 TD, 1 Rec (2 Tgts), 14 Yds

When I think of “beast mode” I will no longer think of the running back in Seattle. See, I’ve already forgot his name. The title now belongs to LeGarrette Blount. Last season he led the league in yards after contact per attempt (YCo/Att) with 3.7. While his YCo/Att has dropped to 2.8 through four games this season, he is currently sixth in total YCo with 186 yards. His rushing average of 4.4 yards per attempt ranks him 17th among backs who have received at least 40 carries. Last season his 5.0 yards per attempt ranked him fourth among backs with at least 200 rushing attempts. His 3.7 rating as a runner has him tied for the ninth best running back. This comes after his 13.4 rating ranked him as the third best last season.

His recent play is not a fluke or a hot streak. This guy can flat-out run the ball.

Sell

WR Victor Cruz – Giants

Week 4 Stats: 6 Rec (9Tgts), 98 Yds

Let’s face it, not every fantasy footballer searches for the latest news regarding players on their roster. In some cases, they check the weekly results and go from there. If the Mario Manningham owner in your league fits this description, it is time to pounce. All they see is their guy still without a touchdown while Victor Cruz is coming off consecutive performances at the level they expected from their guy. It’s not often you handcuff your wide receiver, but this may be a perfect opportunity to get someone to.

Although Cruz saw five more passes than Manningham last week, the two were still very close in snaps played (46 to 49). Manningham is expected to continue on as the number two receiver. If this is the case, week 1 is a reason to scare you away from Cruz. I don’t expect his playing time to go back to what he saw in the opener, but he played only 10 snaps while Manningham played 51.

RB Steven Jackson – Rams

Week 4 Stats: 17 Att, 45 Yds, 4 Rec (7 Tgts), 19 Yds, 1 TD

Finding a trade partner is a lot like fishing. Most will not take the bait, and you may have to cast it out on numerous occasions. Like fishing, all it takes is putting the bait in front of the right person at the right time. While the Rams are off this coming week, you may still find someone hungry enough for Jackson and in need of position depth. Maybe they lost out on Ryan Torain during waivers or they remain concerned about the lack of production from Shonn Greene. Whatever the case, do your best to sell Jackson before his next game.

Jackson’s value is not at its highest, but there are a few things to still use as selling tools. First, not very many running backs play every snap, which is exactly what Jackson did this past weekend. Part of this was from Cadillac Williams being sidelined, but when Williams returns Jackson will continue to play in a large percentage of snaps. Another great selling point is his two touchdowns in limited action. When compared to the top touchdown producers at his position, he is sandwiched right in the middle. Take a peek at the table below. It shows his touchdown to snap percentage compared to the six backs that have scored at least four times.

Lastly, I’m very concerned about the performance of those around him, specifically from those in charge of opening up running lanes. A great example came from this past weekend’s game. Tight ends Billy Bajema and Lance Kendricks did a very poor job of blocking the defensive front. Each scored a  -2.1 rating as run blockers. This is not a one time incident. Through four games, Bajema’s run block rating has been -0.3, -1.6, 1.3 and -2.1, while Kendricks has scored ratings of 0.7, -0.1, -0.2 and -2.1. The right side of the offensive line has been just as poor. Between the right guard and the right tackle, they have scored a positive rating once with Harvey Dahl’s 1.3 in week 1.

Don’t throw Jackson away, but if you can get someone to overpay, it serves you best to move on.