- TreVeyon Henderson may not lead his own backfield: Josh McDaniels has kept his lead rusher out of the third-down role in 18 of 19 seasons, and with Rhamondre Stevenson grading better across the board, Henderson's fifth-round ADP bets on a role he hasn't earned.
- Bhayshul Tuten is a risky bet in a crowded committee: Jacksonville swapped Travis Etienne for Chris Rodriguez, leaving Tuten in a three-man rotation on a possible pass-first team.
- Cam Skattebo faces increased competition: The Giants rotated three running backs with the first-team offense in the preseason opener before adding Najee Harris.
Fantasy managers naturally gravitate toward last season’s production when projecting what comes next, but running back is one of the positions where circumstances can change the fastest. A career year in 2025 doesn’t guarantee a repeat in 2026, particularly when changes in workload and backfield competition can quickly alter a player’s fantasy outlook.
Several running backs are being drafted with the expectation that they will maintain last year’s production or step into larger roles this season. In some cases, that optimism is justified. In others, players who were backups last season are being priced as if a backfield takeover is inevitable, despite little evidence that their roles will change enough to support their ADPs.
The average draft position listed is a consensus of ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! drafts for 12-team redraft leagues.
Travis Etienne Jr., New Orleans Saints (ADP: 4.07)
Etienne joins the Saints after spending four years as the lead back for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He played 2,708 offensive snaps over that span, third-most among running backs, while posting a 79.6 PFF offensive grade. That ranks 26th among 35 backs with at least 1,500 snaps.
In New Orleans, Etienne takes the top spot from Alvin Kamara, whose 75.2 grade ranks 32nd among that group. Etienne is the better rusher, while Kamara remains the better receiver. Etienne signed a four-year, $47 million contract with $28 million guaranteed, making him one of the league’s highest-paid running backs and a clear indication that he will be the starter going forward. Kamara restructured his contract in July, making it clear that he will remain on the roster. The most likely split has Etienne handling early downs and Kamara taking more of the passing-down work, although both backs can play in any situation.
There is some concern that Etienne won’t be as effective in New Orleans as he was in Jacksonville. The Jaguars ranked 15th in team run-blocking grade last season, while the Saints finished 31st. Etienne averaged 1.2 yards before contact per carry, compared to 1.0 for Saints running backs. Less room before contact could make it difficult for Etienne to maintain his efficiency and could push him below 4.0 yards per carry.
His receiving production could also decline, particularly on early downs. Saints head coach Kellen Moore previously coached Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley in their primes, and all three saw their receiving production decline with Moore as their offensive coordinator compared to the surrounding seasons. Kamara followed a similar pattern, averaging 3.0 receptions and 16.9 receiving yards per game under Moore after averaging 4.8 receptions and 39.3 yards over the rest of his career.
Etienne deserves to be drafted as a top-25 running back because his contract should secure top-25 volume. His upside is more limited than most backs in that range, though, unless the Saints’ offensive line and offense improve significantly.
Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 6.02)
Tuten was a fourth-round selection by Jacksonville in 2025, landing in a crowded backfield with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. It grew more competitive when seventh-round rookie LeQuint Allen won the third-down job. In Week 1, Tuten played just four snaps, the fewest of the four backs. Jacksonville then traded Bigsby after that game, letting Tuten spend the rest of the season as the early-down backup to Etienne.
Tuten's only game with double-digit carries was a Week 11 blowout against the Los Angeles Chargers. He finished the season with 83 carries for 307 yards and five touchdowns and added 10 catches for 79 yards and two touchdowns. His yards before contact per carry was a notably low 0.5, second-worst among running backs with at least 75 carries. Backs from the same offense usually post similar marks there, but Etienne was at 1.2, which suggests better run-blocking could lift Tuten's efficiency. The newcomer also posted a high 3.2 yards after contact per carry, tied for 13th, converted first downs at a strong 27.7% clip, ninth-best, and ranked 10th with 0.22 avoided tackles per attempt.
The Jaguars did not re-sign Etienne, instead adding free agent Chris Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a similarly low-volume, high-efficiency back. He was better in yards after contact per attempt (3.5) and first-down rate (28.6%) and just behind in avoided tackles per carry (0.21). Rodriguez also worked with Liam Coen for a season at Kentucky. They are strong in the same statistical areas but are different backs: Tuten is a smaller, speedy runner, while Rodriguez is bigger and still fast for his size.
All signs point to some kind of three-man rotation between Tuten, Rodriguez and Allen. Tuten is widely expected to be the best fantasy option of the three, since Rodriguez has shown minimal promise as a receiver and Allen isn't expected to run much. However, just because they might not be worth starting in fantasy leagues doesn't mean they can't be a major thorn in Tuten's fantasy production.
There is a wide range of outcomes within that rotation, though. Everyone could land near a one-third split, or Tuten could play 60% of the snaps with the other two at 20% each. It is also possible Rodriguez becomes the primary early-down back and Allen the primary passing-down back, with Tuten backing up both. In that case, Tuten would play more than the 21.3% of snaps he saw last season, but perhaps not by much.
Allen has rotated significantly with Tuten through the start of training camp. Tuten's ADP had been on the rise with Rodriguez injured, but he returned to practice in full pads on Monday and had the highlight play of the day.
Tuten is currently being drafted as a low-end RB2, but there is serious risk at that price. There is a real chance no one in this backfield can be trusted on a weekly basis. With the talent at quarterback, receiver and tight end, Jacksonville could be a pass-first team. The three-man rotation splits carries among backs with similar profiles, featuring no large quality gap between the top option and the next.
Cam Skattebo, New York Giants (ADP: 4.04)
Skattebo began his rookie season third on the Giants’ depth chart but was already playing more than 50% of the offensive snaps by Week 2. A Week 3 injury to Tyrone Tracy opened the door for Skattebo to start in Week 4. He averaged 19.2 fantasy points and 19 carries per game over his next four starts, maintaining a significant role even after Tracy returned two weeks later. That stretch ended in Week 8, when Skattebo suffered a season-ending injury that included a dislocated ankle, fractured fibula and ruptured deltoid ligament.
Skattebo was one of several rookie running backs held back by poor offensive line play. His 1.0 yards before contact per attempt tied for eighth-lowest among 49 running backs with at least 100 carries. Despite that, 26.7% of his carries resulted in a first down or touchdown, ninth-best at the position, while his 0.22 avoided tackles per carry also ranked inside the top 10.
The concern for 2026 is less about Skattebo’s ability and more about his opportunity. The Giants brought in a new coaching staff led by John Harbaugh and Matt Nagy, both of whom have long histories of utilizing running back committees, including three-man rotations.
The preseason opener provided an early example of what that could look like. Skattebo started, but Tracy and Devin Singletary both rotated in with the first-team offense. He played five of 16 snaps with the starters. Skattebo remains the favorite to lead the team in carries, but his workload could be significantly less secure than it was during his four-game stretch as the starter last season. Tracy also handled most of the passing-down work, which is particularly important for a Giants team that could frequently find itself playing from behind.
To make matters worse, the Giants signed Najee Harris on Tuesday. Harris spent four seasons facing Harbaugh twice a year, including 20-plus-carry, 100-plus-yard games in 2023 and 2024. He then spent 2025 with the Los Angeles Chargers under John's brother Jim. Greg Roman was the offensive coordinator there and is now a senior offensive assistant with the Giants. Only three running backs over the last decade have measurables of 6-foot-1 or taller and 235 pounds or more. The first two are Gus Edwards and Derrick Henry, the two running backs to lead Harbaugh’s backfields in carries over the past decade. The third is Harris.
Many are speculating the signing is about pass protection, since Tracy allowed a sack and a hurry on three pass-block snaps in the preseason. That doesn't hold up well. Harris hasn't been asked to pass-block much in recent seasons, and Singletary has graded better than him in that area. Others have tied it to Dante Miller‘s injury, but the two are very different backs. Harris also isn't fully healthy, so he wouldn't be a camp body brought in to soak up preseason snaps. ESPN’s Jordan Raanan confirmed the workout for Harris was set up a week before the signing, before Miller’s injury and before Tracy’s preseason performance. Harris will factor into the run game once he's ready, particularly near the goal line and in short yardage.
Skattebo is still the favorite to lead the Giants in carries and is the better fantasy option of the two. The problem is where Skattebo is going. He is being drafted ahead of backs like Bucky Irving, Quinshon Judkins and D'Andre Swift, who are either in better offenses with more assured volume or hold outright workhorse roles.
TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots (ADP: 6.01)
Henderson was drafted 38th overall in the 2025 NFL draft by the Patriots. Several had lofty expectations that he could take over the backfield, but his offensive coordinator was and still is Josh McDaniels. McDaniels has been a head coach or offensive coordinator for 19 seasons in the PFF era, and in 18 of them, the running back who led the team in rushing yards was not the one who played on third downs.
Henderson began the season in a three-man rotation. Known in college as a receiving back, he actually played more on early downs than on third downs. A few weeks in, it looked like his role would grow after a season-ending injury to Antonio Gibson, but it shrank instead because of inefficient play. An injury to Rhamondre Stevenson then made Henderson the starter throughout November.
Henderson had one especially dominant two-week stretch. In the first game, he ran 14 times for 147 yards and two touchdowns, then scored three times the following week. Even with Stevenson back, the rookie held a decent role through the rest of the regular season, though partly thanks to some blowout wins. In the playoffs, Henderson played 40% of snaps or fewer and averaged just 2.5 yards per carry.
New England didn't re-sign Gibson or make any other meaningful changes to the backfield, so both Stevenson and Henderson should have significant roles. Stevenson graded better as a runner, receiver and pass-blocker. If the two play at the level they did last season, Stevenson should remain the primary back, and Henderson would carry fantasy value mainly when the Patriots are blowing opponents out.
Henderson is a good bet to improve, though. He was known for his receiving in college, but his pass protection likely kept him off the field in some passing situations. If he sharpens as a pass-blocker this offseason, he could see more receiving work, in which case both backs could be weekly fantasy starters.
There is also a path where Henderson takes a slight majority of the carries, Stevenson does the dirty work and Henderson handles most of the passing-down work, which would make Henderson a weekly must-start. That would be a deviation from how McDaniels has typically split his backfields, so it is the less likely of the two scenarios, but Henderson's receiving talent makes it a real possibility.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 8.01)
Pollard is one of only two running backs with four straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons, and he has finished as a top-23 fantasy running back in each of those years — two with the Dallas Cowboys and two with the Titans.
Many of Pollard’s rate stats have been relatively average, but there are signs that his situation has held him back. Over the past four seasons, he has averaged 3.3 yards after contact per carry, tied for fourth among running backs with at least 500 carries. Only De'Von Achane, Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson have been better. Meanwhile, his 1.1 yards before contact per carry is tied for fifth-lowest over that span. Pollard has also produced big plays at a high rate, earning a plus-1.0 run grade on 4.2% of his carries, eighth-best at the position.
The good news is that the Titans didn’t make any significant additions at running back. Tennessee passed on Jeremiyah Love with the fourth overall pick, and its only backfield additions were Michael Carter and fifth-round rookie Nicholas Singleton.
However, the Titans have a new coaching staff that appears likely to change the backfield rotation. Pollard started each of the first two preseason games, but Tyjae Spears played more snaps with the starters in both. Rather than Pollard handling early downs and Spears taking third downs, the two were used interchangeably regardless of the situation. That suggests Spears will see more touches than he did last season, likely at Pollard’s expense.
If little changes around him, Pollard should remain a low-end RB2, yet he is currently being drafted slightly later than that as fantasy managers chase more perceived upside elsewhere. The appeal is that Tennessee’s offense has several paths to improve. The Titans have used their past four early first-round picks on offensive players. Offensive linemen Peter Skoronski and JC Latham both made substantial strides as run blockers last season and are still under 25. Cam Ward also showed signs of progress late in his rookie season, posting a 70-plus passing grade in three of his final seven games after failing to reach that mark in his first 10. The additions of Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson should further help the passing game.
Pollard doesn’t necessarily need everything around him to improve. A better passing offense alone should create more red-zone opportunities and give him a better chance to score. He is one of eight running backs with more than 500 carries over the past two seasons, but he has only 10 rushing touchdowns. Each of the other seven has at least 20.
A modest increase in touchdowns could be enough to push Pollard into mid-range RB2 territory. If Tennessee’s offensive line takes another step forward, his ceiling could be considerably higher.
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