Philip Rivers is quietly creeping up on a sneaky multi-TD record

Welcome to the Exception Report. This series is designed to examine players and their impressive streaks, seasons, games, and/or plays. It looks for the outliers and helps understand how they are doing it and if it can continue.

This edition will feature Philip Rivers and the unheralded streak he is on. Currently, he has nine straight games with multiple touchdown passes. This is tied for the 13th-longest streak in the NFL since 1920. Here are the top 12 streaks along with where Rivers stands currently (via Pro Football Reference):

How did he get here?

Rivers has attempted 661 and 578 passes the last two years, the highest and fourth-highest totals of his career. The increase was also evident during the streak, averaging 37 attempts per game (in line with his 38.7 during the last two years), and is much higher than his career average (32.9). Unsurprisingly, Rivers’ touchdown rate is higher during this streak (6.0 percent) than his career overall (5.3) and his total touchdowns during the streak (20) was third behind Aaron Rodgers (27) and Matt Ryan (22).

In the red zone, Rivers also was third with 14 touchdowns, behind the same two signal-callers, even though he only completed 46 percent of his passes there. Of those 14 touchdowns, 10 of them were caught by Antonio Gates (five) and Hunter Henry (five). Meanwhile, the Chargers only managed two rushing touchdowns during that time, both by Melvin Gordon.

That last point is another explanation for Rivers’ streak. Melvin Gordon missed three of the nine games (and most of a fourth) while Rivers was on his touchdown roll. Also, looking at Gordon’s splits before and during Rivers’ run, Gordon had eight touchdowns in the seven games before the streak and just the aforementioned two during the streak. Additionally, Gordon had 31 red-zone rushes in the seven games compared to 19 in the six games toward the end of the season when Rivers was accumulating the touchdown passes.

Can he set the mark?

Rivers will need seven more games of multiple touchdown passes to set a new mark by surpassing Peyton Manning. Much like the last article in the series, let’s start with the schedule and see how it favors Rivers (or doesn’t). Here is how it breaks down with a look at defensive, pass-rush, and pass-coverage grade ranks from 2016:

The first half of the season for Rivers looks pretty brutal. Five of his first eight games are against top-10 defenses in 2016 by PFF grading. With the exception of the Eagles, they feature top-10 pass coverage grades as well. Additionally, the Kansas City Chiefs may not have a top-10-graded defense overall, but were the sixth-rated pass coverage unit last year. Rivers only has one bottom-10 pass coverage unit in the first eight weeks, according to PFF 2016 grades, and that is in Week 2 against the Dolphins.

Looking at the Chargers, there was one change to the skill positions, and that was first-round wide receiver Mike Williams. Unfortunately, Williams was put on the shelf with back issues, so his debut will be delayed. Still, the team has Keenan Allen and last year’s breakout receiver Tyrell Williams in addition to tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. Gordon also showed ability as a receiver in 2016, giving Rivers incredible receiving depth across the offense. The team also added Russell Okung as a free agent and two guards via the NFL draft (although Forrest Lamp tore his ACL), hopefully improving a leaky offensive line.

Will he set the mark?

Can Rivers break the record? Yes, but the odds are stacked against him. A rough early-season schedule will do Rivers no favors. Add in Gordon, who could go on another touchdown run like in early 2016, making it difficult for Rivers to accumulate touchdown passes. Working in his favor is a diverse receiving group and career-high levels of pass attempts. All it takes is one low-scoring game to break his mark and there are enough potential road blocks for me to be skeptical of Rivers breaking the mark.

Confidence level: 15%

What does this mean for fantasy?

During Rivers’ nine-game streak, he was the 14th-ranked fantasy quarterback. Currently, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, Rivers is the 13th quarterback off the board in redraft leagues. This means that Rivers will need to keep a similar pace to return draft value for owners. Add in the consistency that multiple touchdown passes brings and it can be one less worry for fantasy owners in 2017. Even if you don’t believe Rivers can keep up this streak, he should continue to show value in fantasy football.