NFL preseason is upon us, which also means that fantasy draft season has officially begun. Many of our readers have questions to help them gear up for draft day, and while our PFF Edge and PFF Elite subscriptions give you everything you need and more to have a successful draft (and season), we wanted to make everything even more personal with the return of the fantasy mailbag piece.
This week the @PFF_Fantasy Twitter account made a call-out for any and all fantasy draft questions. We’ve pulled a few to answer in-depth here.
#AskPFF who are some of the best RBs at breaking tackles who are currently not being drafted in the RB1-ish range? Thank you!
— Fred Ballard (@FBall_88) August 2, 2017
My first choice here would be Isaiah Crowell. He was second in the league last year with 3.18 average yards gained after contact. I highlighted Crowell in my “4 ‘boring’ choices who can be big fantasy helps” article earlier this summer.
Crowell had the 11st-highest PFF elusive rating last season, and he gained 47.5 percent of his yards on long runs (15-plus yards), which was most among qualifying running backs. He’s an underrated running back because he plays for the Browns, but he’s the best answer to your question.
Carlos Hyde would be my second choice. He gained 3.05 average yards after contact last season, fourth among all running backs. His elusive rating of 50.0 ranked eighth. His 0.32 fantasy points per snap was tied with Jay Ajayi and Jordan Howard, both of whom are considered strong RB1s this year.
There was some strange talk about Hyde not being on the 49ers once the season began, but that seems to be behind us now.
I have the 2nd pick in a dynasty rookie draft next week. Assuming Fournette is the 1st pick, who should I pick? #AskPFF
— Jeremy Vest (@BulletprfVest13) August 2, 2017
Most rookie drafts have happened already, but if you’re like Jeremy and haven’t had the draft yet, my answer here is the same as it was back in April: Christian McCaffrey.
In fact, I’d take McCaffrey at 1.01. The PFF Fantasy staff did a pre-draft rookie mock and a post-draft rookie mock, and I was lucky enough to get the 1.01 pick in both drafts. I took McCaffrey both times.
Here’s my reasoning: McCaffrey is true dual-threat that the Panthers spent elite draft capital on. Remember: The Panthers are just one season removed from leading the league in scoring, and they have an NFL MVP at quarterback. The Jaguars do … not.
McCaffrey is a top-10 NFL draft pick that is apparently “surprising” people in training camp with how good he is. (Read: He’s still underrated somehow.)
A video went semi-viral on NFL Twitter this week of McCaffrey putting Luke Kuechly — Kuechly! — in a spin cycle. It’s going to be a regular theme in the NFL for the next several years. The Panthers will want to reduce Cam Newton’s rushing as the years wear on, and while that might not happen overnight, McCaffrey is in a great place for long-term success.
Better PPR pick in end of second round? Cooks or Fournett? Say I pick A. Brown in first round #AskPFF @LoechnerNFL
— JT (@JT70349038) August 2, 2017
My overall PPR rankings have Brandin Cooks at No. 25 and Leonard Fournette at No. 35, so for me, the answer is that it’s not particularly close. (Only one of PFF’s seven rankers has Fournette ahead of Cooks in overall PPR rankings.)
Cooks has posted lines of 84-1,138-9 and 78-1,173-8 in two years with Drew Brees, and now he’s moving to go play with Tom Brady. New England has some monster mouths to feed (I’m looking at you, Gronk), but Cooks should still post a similar line. He’s a very safe WR2 in PPR leagues.
I’ve already spelled out why I think Fournette is going too high in fantasy drafts, and while I don’t think he’s going to be a bad player by any stretch, I’d rather spend a third-round draft pick on him.
do you think the rb pool is shallow enough to consider a zero rb approach and hog on wr early? @LoechnerNFL #AskPFF
— Gustavo Gordón (@TavoTiger) August 2, 2017
Zero-RB was arguably the most popular draft strategy leading into last season. The strategy burned everyone, since a bunch of top wideouts underperformed and a bunch of top running backs far exceeded expectations. So now everyone is jumping off the bandwagon.
To me, that makes it the perfect time to stay on. Your wideout choices early in the draft will only be better with more running backs being taken.
Zero-RB works when you hit on later-round running backs. Really, any strategy works when you hit on later-round positions, but it just so happens that hitting on later-round running backs is a bit easier to do.
Of running backs currently going in Round 5 or later, C.J. Anderson, Eddie Lacy, Paul Perkins, Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry, and Samaje Perine would likely be my top zero-RB targets.
#AskPFF How much concern should there be for a Jordan Howard regression due to negative game script and crazy efficiency numbers last year?
— Daniel Bunson (@Daboonson) August 2, 2017
It’s fair to have some concern about this from a gamescript perspective, but remember: The Bears were just as bad last year, and that didn’t prevent Jordan Howard from ranking second among all running backs last year with 1,313 rushing yards.
As for his “crazy efficiency numbers,” it’s really easy to make that assumption. But the truth is, Howard wasn’t off the charts in any category.
True, his 5.2 YPC average will likely come down — but it will probably stay in the still-good 4.7-4.9 range. But his 0.32 PPS ranked 16th among running backs, and his 0.36 fantasy points per opportunity ranked 29th. His elusive rating ranked fifth, as did his breakaway rate.
In short, Howard was just solid across the board. His PPO average was actually below what you’d expect. There’s no reason to expect negative regression in the efficiency department for Howard.
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