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DFS data dive: The highest fantasy football ceilings of Week 3

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. (84) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the slate's highest scorer. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

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QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
12.1 Josh Allen BUF MIA 28.4 8,200 26.4 9,000
10.7 Matthew Stafford LA ARZ 22.4 6,500 20.7 7,700
9.8 Patrick Mahomes KC IND 24.9 7,900 23.2 8,700
8.7 Kirk Cousins MIN DET 21.9 6,700 20.3 7,600
8.1 Jalen Hurts PHI WAS 24.8 7,600 23.2 8,100
6.5 Justin Herbert LAC JAX 25.0 7,400 23.4 8,200
4.5 Kyler Murray ARZ LA 21.3 7,300 20.1 7,800
4.4 Joe Flacco NYJ CIN 17.8 5,300 16.5 6,800
4.2 Jared Goff DET MIN 15.8 5,800 14.8 7,100
4.2 Derek Carr LV TEN 18.6 5,900 17.2 7,100
3.9 Tua Tagovailoa MIA BUF 18.8 6,100 17.5 7,300
3.3 Joe Burrow CIN NYJ 22.9 6,600 21.2 7,500
3.3 Ryan Tannehill TEN LV 18.1 5,700 17.2 7,200
3.2 Trevor Lawrence JAX LAC 18.6 5,400 17.3 7,000
2.8 Lamar Jackson BLT NE 22.7 8,000 21.3 8,600
2.7 Jameis Winston NO CAR 15.0 5,200 14.1 6,900
1.7 Mac Jones NE BLT 19.2 5,100 17.8 6,400
1.6 Aaron Rodgers GB TB 20.1 6,400 18.7 7,400
1.4 Davis Mills HST CHI 16.7 5,000 15.5 6,400
1.3 Marcus Mariota ATL SEA 21.4 5,500 19.9 7,300
0.9 Geno Smith SEA ATL 18.7 5,000 17.5 6,300
0.8 Baker Mayfield CAR NO 14.4 5,200 13.5 6,600
0.7 Matt Ryan IND KC 17.9 5,200 16.5 6,700
0.5 Carson Wentz WAS PHI 17.4 6,300 16.2 7,500
0.4 Justin Fields CHI HST 17.8 5,600 16.7 7,000
0.3 Tom Brady TB GB 22.0 6,000 20.3 7,400

RUNNING BACKS

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