Fantasy Football: How 2024 NFL Draft's quarterback class stacks up in stable metrics

• North Carolina’s Drake Maye leads the way: Maye is expected to be a top-two pick in this year’s NFL draft, boasting strong stable metrics.

• Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels avoid red flags across the stable metric board: Both players are ranked among the top four at their position, and they maintain that ranking across these stable metric categories.

• Dig into the numbers for yourself: PFF's Premium Stats is the most in-depth collection of NFL and NCAA player performance data. Subscribe today to get full access!

Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

With the NFL offseason officially underway, so is 2024 NFL Draft season. Plenty of fantasy football general managers are building out their rookie draft boards for dynasty purposes.

Looking at how each position stacks up against one another from an analytics standpoint is just one of the many tools to consider during the evaluation process. This series focuses purely on the key stable metrics that translate more often than not from college to the NFL. It's a way for dynasty managers, and fantasy managers, in general, to get familiar with this year’s rookie class.

A few notes about how this series will work:

• Rankings are based entirely on how these players performed in PFF’s stable metrics over the past two seasons.
• Athletic ability and size are not taken into account for this process. Again, this is just one of many evaluation tools to consider.
• This list includes all 15 quarterbacks from the PFF big board but does not provide any weight to projected draft capital, competition level or their overall ranking, though that context will often be provided.

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE FROM A CLEAN POCKET SINCE 2022

Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman tops the first stable metric category with the best clean-pocket passing grade over the past two seasons. Hartman is currently ranked as QB11 on the PFF big board His overall performance dropped off a fair bit in his final (sixth) year, and first with the Fighting Irish. Hartman had previously spent five seasons with Wake Forest and earned elite passing grades in 2021 (90.5) and 2022 (89.4) but fell to a 78.9 mark in 2023. Without the 2022 season included in his overall grade, Hartman would still rank third among 2023 quarterbacks from a clean pocket (92.4), which is a promising sign.

Most legitimate quarterbacks perform well from a clean pocket, so it’s no surprise that the top five quarterback prospects in this year’s class have all earned 90.0-plus passing grades over these past two seasons. Concerns arise for those lower on the list, as this should be an “easier” facet to grade well in.

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE ON STRAIGHT DROPBACKS SINCE 2022

North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. recorded the most straight dropbacks over the past two seasons, and as a result, both players seem to have perfected their craft as the top two scorers in this stable metric.

Maye and Penix had fewer than 100 rollouts over the past two seasons, while Bo Nix and Caleb Williams both topped 100 in that regard and led the group in passing grade on that dropback type. Even though that isn’t one of the stable metrics of quarterback play, it does highlight the different strengths in this draft class.

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE ON FIRST AND SECOND DOWNS SINCE 2022

Penix’s greatest strength relative to the rest of the quarterback class is his play on early downs, recording more dropbacks and a better passing grade than any of this year’s group over the past two seasons. For what it’s worth, his passing grade on late downs is 90.0 since 2022, so he’s performed particularly well regardless of the down, but in those stable early situations, he leads the way.

First- and second-down passing grade was one of Caleb Williams' poorer metrics, interestingly. Where he made up for it was on third and fourth downs, leading the group in passing grade (92.1) over the past two seasons. While those late-down situations aren’t considered a stable metric, it speaks to some of the appeal of Williams, as he’s come up with more clutch throws. These metrics won’t account for that, but it's worth mentioning when it comes to introductions for these players.

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE WITH NO PLAY ACTION SINCE 2022

The play-action pass is designed to get defenses off balance while anticipating the run, thus opening up more passing lanes. It’s a key part of NFL offenses, as well, but removing that cheat code from the equation presents a better picture of which quarterbacks performed well without the additional help.

The top four quarterbacks in this metric are the top four quarterbacks on the PFF big board, as they all earned passing grades above 90.0 since 2022.

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE ON ATTEMPTS BEYOND THE STICKS SINCE 2022

Throws beyond the sticks is another stable metric that top quarterbacks should be grading well in, as the large majority of positively graded plays will come from such attempts. The top four quarterbacks on the PFF big board once again lead the way. They make the high-level throws and are not just reliant on those around them, capable of being the primary reason for offensive success.

TOP QBS IN LIMITING NEGATIVELY GRADED PLAYS SINCE 2022

Oregon's Bo Nix has shined throughout these stable metrics, ranking among the top four in five of six categories, with his ability to limit negative plays being his strongest asset. His incredible 45-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2023 was the perfect example of just how much that played a part in his final college season.

Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and LSU’s Jayden Daniels have also done a great job at limiting negative plays, with Daniels also boasting one of the more impressive touchdown-to-interception rations of the 2023 season (40-to-4). McCarthy and Daniels are first-round picks in Trevor Sikkema’s latest mock draft.

Caleb Williams threw just five interceptions in each of the past two seasons, but he made 29 turnover-worthy plays — a potential knock on the projected first-overall pick in 2024. Williams, luckily, posted plenty of encouraging scores in these stable metrics to make up for this one lowly showing.

CONSENSUS RANKING USING ALL STABLE METRICS SINCE 2022

Context

North Carolina’s Drake Maye leads the group after finishing with a top-three mark in five of six stable metric categories, with his lowest showing coming in negatively graded plays (eighth). Maye is set to be one of the first two quarterbacks, and likely one of the top two picks, selected in this year’s draft, and there are no signs here that he isn’t worthy of those expectations.

Caleb Williams is the top quarterback on the PFF big board but does fall a little in these stable metric ranks compared to some of his peers. Outside of negatively graded plays, Williams performed well in these metrics and across the board since his first college season in 2021, including earning 90.0-plus overall grades in all three seasons.

Both Oregon’s Bo Nix and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are top-four quarterbacks on the PFF big board and finish within that range in the consensus stable metric rankings, which is an encouraging sign for them as prospects.

Jordan Travis out of Florida State is the ninth-ranked quarterback on the PFF big board, and the six-year player places fourth in these consensus stable metric rankings. Travis isn’t likely to be drafted among the top quarterbacks in this class, but there are several positives to point to when looking at his stable metrics.