McFarland: 2022 Fantasy Football Best Ball Running Back Tiers

Ranking players by position is an integral part of fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving on the draft board. For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several running backs in the same tier, it could make sense to wait until the next round — someone equally as worthy will probably be available with your next pick.

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Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor. Most importantly, we don't want to pay more than the next drafter for a similar player.

Last update: April 8

TIER 1A – EXPLOSIVE YOUNG STUD(S)

Jonathan Taylor finished as the RB1 in PPR formats and averaged 22.2 points per game. Unfortunately, he doesn't get elite passing-game utilization (9% target share) like some of his peers due to Nyheim Hines. However, the Colts ran the ball more than the NFL average in leading (+4%) and trailing (+3%) game scripts in 2021, providing Taylor with the runway to show off his elite skills that helped earn him the No. 2 PFF rush grade (minimum 150 attempts).

Taylor vs. three-year NFL average in underlying efficiency metrics

A reduction in leading game scripts — where Indianapolis ranked fourth last year — could lead to more weekly variance in 2022, but at age 24 Taylor still has a leg up on the competition.

TIER 1B – PPR STUDS

Christian McCaffrey eclipsed the 50% snap threshold in four healthy games in 2021 — where he finished as the RB1, RB3, RB4 and RB3. His insane targets per route run (TPRR) of 34% and 2.91 yards per route run (YPRR) tell us CMC still has it in the passing game. If he can remain healthy, he has a shot at overall RB1 and should be a priority when he slips past his current FFPC ADP of 1.3.

TIER 1C – VOLUME STUDS

Derrick Henry was the No. 1 RB in PPR points per game (23.4) and still carries immense upside in an offense committed to the run more than any other. In 2021, the Titans ran the ball more than the NFL average in all game scripts:

• Trailing by four or more: +10%
• Within three points: +7%
• Leading by four or more: +3%

The primary concern for Henry is age and cumulative workload. He will be 28 this season and is past the 1,500-carry threshold where we have historically seen production drop-offs. In addition, the veteran's underlying efficiency metrics are already showing signs of wear and tear.

It could occur quickly when the cliff comes, given Henry's lack of utilization in the passing game to help cushion the fall.

Leonard Founette was the RB4 in PPR points per game (18.3) thanks to handling much of the passing-down work down the stretch. Surprisingly, Fournette has averaged over 20% TPRR in each of his first five seasons. He doesn't pop in the underlying rushing metrics but projects as an every-down back in Tampa Bay's elite offense.

TIER 1D – LEAD BACKS WITH QUESTIONS

Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara each project for solid roles as low-end RB1s, but both face potential off-field challenges. If cleared up, they fit in Tier 1C. Kamara posted three-year lows in explosive run rate (9%), yards after contact (2.8), missed tackles forced per attempt (19%) and targets per route (24%). He still has a substantial role in the receiving game, but at age 27 we could start to see deterioration.

Joe Mixon plays in a great offense, but he doesn't see the field enough on passing downs like long-down-distance (16%) and the two-minute offense (42%). The sixth-year back scored three touchdowns above expectation, which helped cover up passing-game limitations.

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TIER 2A – EFFICIENCY PERFORMERS WITH MASSIVE UPSIDE IF ROLE GROWS

Javonte Williams will move into the top-five backs if Melvin Gordon III or another significant name doesn't join the team. As a rookie, Williams earned playing time in all situations, including passing downs. He handled 48% of the long-down-and-distance (LDD) snaps and 52% of the two-minute offense, and he was active as a receiver out of the backfield with a 19% TPRR rate. As a rusher, he demonstrated elite ability across multiple key metrics.

Williams vs. three-year NFL average in underlying efficiency metrics

The second-year back is already the RB6 going off the board at pick 1.10 in FFPC drafts, meaning there isn't much room for him to move up even if Gordon doesn't sign. You can likely get him in August at the same price, but if the Broncos sign another back, his price will slip, providing an opportunity to pounce.

TIER 2B – EVERY-DOWN POTENTIAL AT A DISCOUNT

David Montgomery has a path to an every-down role after the departure of Damien Williams and Tarik Cohen. Then, of course, we could see Khalil Herbert steal some early-down work, but this season seems like a year to be in on the 25-year-old back, given his fourth-round ADP.

Saquon Barkley also has a wide-open depth chart with the Giants, and he has demanded a 22% or higher TPRR in every season except one (18%). The biggest question about the fifth-year back is his explosiveness — was last year a mirage, or have injuries robbed him of big-play ability?

If Barkley can regain his 2019 form, this ranking is admittedly too low. This offense may not be good, but an every-down role is always valuable in fantasy. He is a player I would love to see more on in training camp, but any significant preseason action is unlikely given his injury history.

TIER 2C – YEAR-3 LEAD COMMITTEE BACKS

Cam Akers‘ recovery from the Achilles injury was nothing short of miraculous, but he couldn't do much with the opportunity. There is a chance the 23-year-old takes over the Rams backfield, but Darrell Henderson seems likely to remain involved.

TIER 3A – POTENTIAL LEAD OPTIONS WITH QUESTIONS

Elijah Mitchell averaged 15.0 points per game in 2021, but his sixth-round draft capital paired with the fickle nature of Kyle Shanahan leaves room for doubt. If the 49ers don't add another back in the draft, he should creep up boards a tad, but a committee approach could also be in play — including heavy usage of Deebo Samuel in the backfield.

Like Mitchell, Michael Carter lacks the draft capital (fourth round) to feel too comfortable at this point in draft season. However, his 23% TPRR and 1.48 YPRR comp similarly to players like Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler. Additionally, he doesn't just catch dump-downs behind the line of scrimmage, boasting a positive aDOT (0.3). Therefore, Carter is worth gaining some exposure when he slides into the seventh round. However, his ADP should slip if the Jets spend a Day 2 pick on the backfield, so balanced exposure is the key until the NFL draft.

TIER 3B – EARLY-DOWN GRINDERS

Clyde Edwards-Helaire could get an opportunity to play more on passing downs, given Ronald Jones' ineptitude in that capacity. However, the third-year back hasn't proven himself in that area despite the Chiefs' need for underneath options in 2021. Edwards-Helaire managed a lowly 12% TPRR and a 0.72 YPRR.

There is a good chance CEH ends up splitting early downs with Jones and giving way to a late addition on receiving downs — which would drop him further down the ranks.

Edwards-Helaire vs. three-year NFL average in underlying efficiency metrics

TIER 3C – UPSIDE RECEIVING BACKS

Last season, Kareem Hunt averaged 13.5 PPR points per game and had a sizable role in the Browns' offense. Under Kevin Stefanski, he has handled the passing-down duties and the closer role when Cleveland has the game under control — a somewhat insulated situation.

He missed eight games last year, but his underlying TPRR (23%) and YPRR (1.60) point to elite receiving upside, and he was also prolific on the ground.

TIER 4A – UPSIDE COMPLEMENTARY BACKS

Rashaad Penny has been an explosive back in his limited healthy reps in the NFL. With Chris Carson battling a neck injury, Pete Carroll has said Penny would get the first shot. The Seahawks' offensive volume is the worst in the NFL, but this is a case where ADP (8.9 in FFPC best ball drafts) is likely to climb as folks sort through the most likely outcome.

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TIER 4B – NON-LEAD COMMITTEE BACKS

Rhamondre Stevenson flashed as a rookie and showed upside on the ground (15% explosive-rush rate) and in the receiving game (.22 TPRR), but Damien Harris will likely lead the way on early downs with James White siphoning touches in the passing game. Nevertheless, the second-year back could play the jack-of-all-trades role with spike-week potential, plus add contingent value in games without Harris or White.

TIER 4C – ROOKIE BACKS WITH PROJECTED DRAFT CAPITAL BEFORE PICK 150

See the full tier breakdown of the class here.

TIER 5A – CLEAR-CUT ELITE HANDCUFFS

TIER 5B – FORMER STARTERS WITH MAJOR INJURY QUESTIONS

TIER 5C – PPR FILL-IN OPTIONS

TIER 5D – MORE NON-LEAD COMPLEMENTARY BACKS

TER 6A – ROOKIE BACKS WITH LATER PROJECTED DRAFT CAPITAL

TIER 6B – MORE PPR FILL-IN OPTIONS

TIER 6C – BACKUPS AND FREE AGENTS