Hi folks! During Weeks 6 and 7, we had several changes at the quarterback position, which obviously affected receiver stock value. What we’re going to do today is take a look at how those QBs have been looking in terms of who they throw to, how successful they are with those throws, etc. The QBs we will be focusing on are: Carson Palmer of the Raiders, Matt Moore of the Dolphins, Christian Ponder of the Vikings, and Tim Tebow of the Broncos. All data here is through Week 10.
Carson Palmer
Palmer’s target distribution from Weeks 7, 9 and 10 breaks down as follows: Denarius Moore 21, Jacoby Ford 9, Michael Bush 8, Darrius Heyward-Bey 6, Louis Murphy 6, Marcel Reese 6, T.J. Houshmandzadeh 5, Brandon Myers 5, Kevin Boss 3, Chaz Schilens 2, Taiwan Jones 2. A few things to mention before we dig in here: One, Darren McFadden is hurt, and that will shift targets, although I don’t expect them to shift too much since Palmer is doing well vertically. Two, Jacoby Ford got hurt, which led to increased targets for Denarius Moore. With that said, Moore has been doing well with what he’s been given. Though he’s only caught 9 of those passes from Palmer (his lone reception against the Chiefs was from Kyle Boller), those targets have been an average of a whopping 16 yards downfield, including 7 targets 20+ yards downfield, which isn’t bad for 2.5 games of rapport with Palmer. With beatable secondaries coming up such as the Vikings, Dolphins, Packers and Lions, Moore is looking good for the stretch fantasy run. The other player of note here is Heyward-Bey. DHB was coming on strong as a PPR receiver in the early/middle part of the year with Jason Campbell. However, for whatever reason, he’s been phased out of the passing game in the last 2 weeks. In Week 9, he only played 24 snaps. His snap count increased in Week 10 with Ford hurt, but he received no targets. In fact, he has 1 target in those two games combined. As of now, it’s clear that the WR to own in Oakland is Moore, while Ford still makes a decent stash. In Ford’s limited opportunities with Palmer, those 9 targets translated to 6 catches thrown on average 14.6 yards downfield. It’s also worth noting that Palmer prefers throwing to his LWR, though this point is negligible as long as the Oakland WRs move around as they are now. Oh, and lastly, as the target numbers tell you: feel free to avoid Oakland TEs.
Matt Moore
Unlike Palmer, we do have 4 full games from Moore, who I personally liked since his glimpses of good play towards the end of 2009. Let’s start with the obvious: Matt Moore seems to have Brandon Marshall on his fantasy teams. From Weeks 6 to 10 (a 5 week stretch), Moore has targets Marshall 49 times. Marshall shifts all over the field and Moore still finds a way to feed him the ball. I won’t touch on Marshall’s in-depth statistics here, because it’s fairly obvious you need to use him if you have him. Most people probably assume Reggie Bush is Moore’s other go-to-guy, and with 17 targets, there’s good reason to think just that. However, there is in fact someone who has many more targets than Bush: Davone Bess, with 27 during the same span. While Bess has clunked around with those targets (17 catches in 4.5 weeks is waiver wire fodder in almost all leagues), it’s interesting to take note of this should Marshall go down or lose his head again. The other point with Bess, as you all know, is this: on average, he’s targeted 8.8 yards downfield. Moore throws 9.4 yards downfield on average, and interestingly, the target he throws deepest to is his backup TE Charles Clay with an average of 12 yards downfield. I actually like Clay as a TE2 should Fasano go down; on limited snaps, he has 8 targets (2 less than Fasano, 4 less than Brian Hartline), and has caught 75% of those targets despite being targeted down the field frequently. In fact, one of his missed catches was a mere 4 yards downfield. Closer examination on Reggie Bush, another PPR favorite, reveals something else interesting: he’s caught 15 of his 17 targets from Moore. Why? Because only two of those targets have been more than 8 yards down the field. Bush is the true king of the short pass right now, and should keep up the solid PPR numbers as long as the Dolphins keep using him in this manner.
Christian Ponder
Like Moore, we have 4 full games of Ponder to go off of. However, unlike Moore, we can argue that Ponder doesn’t have an outright bonafide number one like Marshall, thanks in part to Percy Harvin’s injuries/perplexing usage during the season. Looking at the numbers, some notable target counts: Michael Jenkins 17, Percy Harvin 17, Visanthe Shiancoe 17, Devin Aromashodu 16, Greg Camarillo 9, Adrian Peterson 8. At first glance, Ponder spreads the ball around liberally in a run focused offense, which makes this a nightmare scenario for owners who may have to rely on one of these players in a pinch. So let’s look at the in-depth numbers of the first four guys a bit more. Jenkins has caught 10 of his passes and has been thrown at an average of a whopping 19.3 yards downfield. In fact, 9 of those targets were 20+ yards downfield, and 4 were 30+ yards downfield. This makes that 58% catch rate a bit more reasonable, and makes Jenkins a very intriguing bench player in standard leagues, especially ones that reward big catches or yardage totals with bonus points. Percy Harvin, on the other hand, is the opposite of Jenkins: he plays most of his snaps in the slot, is targeted a miniscule 3.9 yards downfield on average, yet has compiled over 6 YAC per catch. It goes without saying, but Harvin is best suited for PPR leagues. Visanthe Shiancoe’s numbers seem to indicate waiver wire material: 9 catches on an average of just over 10 yards downfield. You can do better than a TE averaging 2 catches per game with his new QB, even for TE2. Lastly, Devin Aromashodu, who’s caught all of 3 passes thrown his way since Ponder took over. So why bother looking his way? Simple: target volume matters, and at nearly 19 yards downfield on average per target, he’s on the standard league radar if an injury strikes or Jenkins starts regressing, which is entirely possible. One last thing to note: while you’re never ever ever benching Adrian Peterson, he’s averaging a whopping 11.6 YAC on his receptions. If Bill Musgrave ever works AP into the passing game more, Ponder’s totals are going to soar.
Tim Tebow
Part of me is saying I shouldn’t even bother writing about a guy averaging 16 attempts per game in his last 3 games, but since he does have talent around him, we’d better see what he’s doing with his limited passing attempts. First thing to note: since the Broncos got blown out against the Lions and Tebow was forced to throw 39 times, it’s clear the offense has evolved to more of a streetball, option type offense. I’ll be shocked if Tebow reaches even 30 attempts in any more games this season. The data for Tebow does NOT include Week 11, but we still have 4 full games to go off of. Incidentally, I personally feel 4 games is generally a good sample size to see how a player is trending on the larger scale. Some quick target numbers: Eric Decker 23, Eddie Royal 22, Demaryius Thomas 14. No one else has a significant volume of targets, so we’ll zone in on those three players. One thing to note is Tebow’s target depth: when he actually does throw the ball, he averages a respectable 13.3 yards downfield, which is a higher number than two of the three aforementioned QBs. All three of his primary targets average throws 12+ yards downfield on average. In fact, Eric Decker is targeted a whopping 21.5 yards downfield on average, which is by far the highest number of any receiver mentioned in this article. This means that Tebow’s receivers do in fact have legitimate chances for big numbers. It’s just a question of target accuracy and frequency for the future, which is no given unless the Broncos get blown out. However, I suspect that as the players in the league get used to Tebow’s read-option style, the Broncos may be forced to throw more, especially with their RB corps banged up. For now, Decker remains the best option in the Denver receiving corps, while Thomas and Royal are more speculative in nature. Just keep in mind this will easily be one of the most inconsistent WR corps in the NFL.
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