Drafting a new dynasty team can be a daunting task. An owner needs to trust the commissioner to run a quality league of dedicated owners. Then an owner needs to fully understand the rules and scoring. Next, an owner needs a solid set of rankings to use during the draft. Most owners stop there in terms of draft preparation. One of the most important aspects in preparing for a dynasty draft is anticipating when each player will be selected. While every owner values players differently, having a probable range of average draft position (ADP) is vital to mining value from every selection.
Finding quality drafts to use for ADP calculation is a daunting, but worthwhile, project. Luckily, I have done all the dirty work over the past couple months collating this data from ten startup drafts. Each starts one quarterback and has PPR scoring across all positions. All of these leagues are hosted by MyFantasyLeague.com.
The ADP figure is the average of all the drafts. The high and low figures supply the overall range for each player. Not every player drafted is included in this list. The bottom end contains mostly younger options at the position.
| RK | Player | ADP | LO | HI |
| 1 | Calvin Johnson | 1.2 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | AJ Green | 1.8 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | Hakeem Nicks | 2.1 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Julio Jones | 2.2 | 11 | 21 |
| 6 | Mike Wallace | 2.8 | 14 | 29 |
| 7 | Greg Jennings | 3 | 17 | 33 |
| 8 | Dez Bryant | 3 | 20 | 32 |
| 9 | Andre Johnson | 3.1 | 15 | 34 |
| 10 | Wes Welker | 3.2 | 18 | 35 |
| 11 | Victor Cruz | 3.3 | 17 | 33 |
| 12 | Percy Harvin | 3.4 | 24 | 39 |
| 13 | Kenny Britt | 3.7 | 26 | 53 |
| 14 | Roddy White | 3.7 | 23 | 43 |
| 15 | Jordy Nelson | 3.9 | 25 | 53 |
| 16 | Brandon Marshall | 3.9 | 21 | 52 |
| 17 | Jeremy Maclin | 4.1 | 24 | 41 |
| 18 | Dwayne Bowe | 4.3 | 25 | 55 |
| 19 | Vincent Jackson | 4.4 | 27 | 50 |
| 20 | Marques Colston | 4.5 | 31 | 58 |
| 21 | Miles Austin | 4.5 | 31 | 47 |
| 22 | Steve Johnson | 4.7 | 39 | 50 |
| 23 | Antonio Brown | 5 | 31 | 61 |
| 24 | Demaryius Thomas | 5.3 | 36 | 68 |
| 25 | Torrey Smith | 6.3 | 50 | 73 |
| 26 | Steve Smith | 6.4 | 52 | 76 |
| 27 | Greg Little | 6.6 | 57 | 82 |
| 28 | Desean Jackson | 6.6 | 56 | 78 |
| 29 | Denarius Moore | 6.9 | 51 | 84 |
| 30 | Mike Williams | 7.2 | 54 | 87 |
| 31 | Michael Crabtree | 7.2 | 60 | 105 |
| 32 | Titus Young | 7.3 | 65 | 94 |
| 33 | Brandon Lloyd | 7.5 | 65 | 98 |
| 34 | Pierre Garcon | 7.7 | 59 | 92 |
| 35 | Sidney Rice | 8.7 | 76 | 110 |
| 36 | Santonio Holmes | 8.9 | 83 | 106 |
| 37 | Randall Cobb | 9 | 87 | 106 |
| 38 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 9.4 | 77 | 121 |
| 39 | Laurent Robinson | 9.5 | 89 | 112 |
| 40 | Jonathon Baldwin | 9.7 | 77 | 128 |
| 41 | Mario Manningh | 10 | 97 | 119 |
| 42 | Leonard Hankerson | 11 | 111 | 128 |
| 43 | Vincent Brown | 11 | 84 | 155 |
| 44 | Reggie Wayne | 11.1 | 101 | 136 |
| 45 | Anquan Boldin | 11.1 | 97 | 150 |
| 46 | Eric Decker | 11.3 | 116 | 134 |
| 47 | Austin Collie | 11.9 | 94 | 146 |
| 48 | Jacoby Ford | 13 | 130 | 161 |
| 49 | Robert Meachem | 14.2 | 124 | 200 |
| 50 | Emmanuel Sanders | 14.2 | 130 | 202 |
| 51 | Lance Moore | 14.3 | 114 | 198 |
| 52 | Arrelious Benn | 14.9 | 141 | 196 |
| 53 | Golden Tate | 15.8 | 130 | 200 |
| 54 | Brandon LaFell | 16.7 | 140 | 208 |
| 55 | Early Doucet | 18.3 | 182 | 234 |
| 56 | Dezmon Briscoe | 18.5 | 177 | 223 |
On average, five receivers are off the board in the first 14 picks of a draft. Larry Fitzgerald marks the oldest of the top tier at 29 years old when the season rolls around. A.J. Green and Julio Jones are within four spots of each other and will remain a dynasty debate after both were drafted in the top-6 of the 2011 NFL draft.
Victor Cruz was a deep dynasty stash a year ago but is now being drafted before round 3 is complete in every draft included in this collection. Cruz lived in the slot in 2011 as he was second to only Wes Welker in slot targets (96), receptions (64), and touchdowns (8). The Giants were heavy on slot production prior to Cruz (see Steve Smith), so dynasty owners are expecting steady production out of the round 3 pick.
Vincent Jackson remains in the top-20 receivers with a few selections in round 3 of dynasty drafts. Given his reliance on the deep ball (tied with Hakeem Nicks for most targets of 20+ yards downfield, 38) and the possibility of leaving San Diego and Philip Rivers, I am concerned about him as a top-20 option.
Michael Crabtree has one of the largest ranges for top-35 receivers. Anywhere from round 5 all the way to round 9 is an option depending on the draft. Crabtree was actually WR16 in PFF’s exclusive WR rating on his targets in 2011, 93.3, which is higher than established receivers like Dwayne Bowe and the above-mentioned Vincent Jackson. The problem is the limited San Francisco passing attack (outside of Vernon Davis) and Crabtree’s lack of big plays. He was WR82 in terms of YPC (12.1) and in the top-15 in drop rate (11.3% of catchable passes) in 2011. Crabtree may be valued about right in terms of ADP, but his upside is severely limited in my opinion going forward.
Leonard Hankerson and Reggie Wayne are intriguing options outside the top-40 with potential upgrades at quarterback. Robert Griffin III gives Hankerson a good chance to outperform his round 11 ADP in 2012. Reggie Wayne is a potential free agent signing for any team that signs Peyton Manning, which would be an upgrade from the 2011 Colts team limiting Wayne to 75 receptions and 960 yards, both is lowest totals since 2003. Wayne was WR17 with a +10.3 pass rating and just two drops on 121 targets in 2011. The problem was not him in Indianapolis.
Check out all the positions in this series here:
Dynasty ADP: QB | RB | WR | TE
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