Fantasy: Dynasty Stock Market – C.J. Spiller

The future is never clear, and you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long-term values. – Warren Buffett

C.J. Spiller, the 9^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, faces an uncertain future after a disappointing statistical rookie season.  Many are ready to write off the second-year running back from Clemson who only had 98 offensive touches last year and faces another season with a limited role.  Despite the uncertainty surrounding Spiller, a closer look at the numbers indicate that head coach Chan Gailey’s statement regarding the striking similarities between Spiller and Chiefs’ standout running back Jamaal Charles are not that unfounded.

2010 Struggles

Comparing Spiller and Charles appears to be a stretch given Spiller’s struggles last year.  Gailey admitted at the Scouting Combine that taking Spiller did not work out as the Bills had planned.  He pinpointed ball security and pass protection as areas for Spiller to improve in.  Examining each number is a clear indication why Spiller only participated in 241 offensive snaps on the season (27.5%).

Spiller ranked 34^th in pass blocking among running backs who played more than 232 snaps; his teammate Fred Jackson ranked 2^nd (+4.8).  Spiller did struggle with fumbles (5 fumbles, 3 lost) in his 154 combined touches (including returns), but it is not an alarming figure at this point.

Comparing Spiller and Charles

Now, let us go back to head coach Chan Gailey’s claim that the similarities between Spiller and Charles are striking.  At first, I thought the only things they had in common was impressive speed and body builds (Charles: 5’11” 200, Spiller: 5’11” 196).  Comparing the rookie season of each provided some surprising results:

Charles scored more fantasy points and received more playing time, but Spiller was more efficient in fantasy points per snap and by opportunity.  Both met the criteria of more than 2.5 yards rushing after contact per attempt discussed in the Hillis Factor.  It is interesting to note that the knock against Spiller at this point is that he lacks the patience to make the required runs in the NFL.  The same was said about Charles after his rookie season.  Comparing the data here does not guarantee that Spiller will develop into a superstar like Charles, but Gailey just might know what he is talking about.

Receiving Threat

C.J. Spiller showed promise as a receiver despite his struggles in the running game.  Spiller ranked 10^th among running backs in targets per snap and 8^th in targets per pass routes run.  The Bills clearly tried to get Spiller the ball any way they could. He lined up in the slot 13% of the time and out wide 18% of the time.  Most of his targets did come from screens and check downs while lined up at halfback, but he did show some surprising efficiency when he was motioned out wide:

Conclusion

We are now left to project what Spiller will do in his second season in the NFL.  Gailey has already indicated that Fred Jackson will be the lead back and Spiller will remain as a role player, but that is not set in stone.  Jackson just turned 30 years old and, despite limited tread on his legs, will only remain productive for a few more seasons.   Spiller’s main obstacles to more playing time are his pass protection and ball security.

Spiller’s immediate role is uncertain but the long-term payoff will be great for those who have the clarity to believe that he could become the next Jamaal Charles.

Follow Bryan on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine

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