Fantasy: Dynasty Stock Market - Beanie Wells

After just two unspectacular seasons in the NFL I think it's time to move on from Chris Wells in your dynasty leagues. Wells was drafted at the bottom of the first round in 2009 and was expected to take over the running back position for the Arizona Cardinals. As of today, he has not lived up to those expectations.
 
In 2009, Wells showed some promise as he participated in 357 of the team’s total offensive snaps (30.6%) and was asked to carry the ball 176 times. Entrenched in a running back by committee role with Tim Hightower, Wells was decent versus his backfield counterpart:

 
 
 

Wells was 50% more productive than Hightower in fantasy points per snap even though he was not nearly as involved in the passing game. Hightower was on the field over twice as much as Wells but struggled with a PFF overall score of -6.4 compared to Wells’ 2.9.
 
Many were expecting Beanie’s breakout season to come in 2010, but a surprise preseason arthroscopic knee procedure derailed those hopes. Wells missed the first two games and posted poor numbers across the board while still in a committee backfield with Hightower:
 

Wells and Hightower both regressed in every category listed above from 2009. Interestingly, Wells’ low 232 total snaps was still roughly the same percentage of total offensive snaps as his rookie year, 29.1%. Both running backs were injured throughout the season, which was definitely a factor in their production.
 
One stat that stands out from both 2009 and 2010 charts above is that Hightower is used extensively in the passing game. He dominated targets out of the backfield but a look into both player’s offensive snaps gives us some more insight:
 

In both 2009 and 2010 Tim Hightower was asked to protect the quarterback on passing downs. Not only did Wells fail to earn a higher percentage of snaps than 2009 but he was not trusted to be on the field much during passing downs once again.
 
This Spring, the Cardinals drafted Ryan Williams with the 38th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. With committee backfields springing up all over the league it is not a surprise to see the Cards adding depth at running back. What is surprising is that there are many needs on the roster (QB, LB etc.) that they chose not to address with their high second round pick.
 
Some might say that Hightower, not Wells will be the odd man out in Arizona next year. That is a possibility, but Hightower is the receiving and pass blocking back for this offense. In his two years at Virginia Tech, Williams caught a total of 26 balls. Does that mean Williams can’t catch? Absolutely not, but what will be asked of Williams remains to be seen. What we do know is that as of now Hightower has a definitive role in the offense.
 
What will Well’s role be going forward? I think Ryan Williams is more of a replacement for Wells than a compliment and that cannot bode well for his fantasy outlook going forward in Arizona. If you own him, look for a trading partner and move on in your dynasty leagues.
 
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