The Dynasty Stock Market examines players you should buy or sell in your dynasty fantasy football league.
This edition of the Dynasty Stock Market will take on a positive tone with so much negative press going back and forth between NFL owners and the NFLPA.
Here are several players who are good buy-low candidates after showing some promise in a limited role last season (all played fewer than 220 total snaps).
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Buy
QB Tim Tebow – Broncos
2010 Key Stats: 0.47 fantasy points per snap (1st among all quarterbacks), 0.74 fantasy points per opportunity (rush + pass attempts, 1st among all quarterbacks), combined +10.8 PFF rating in 3 starts, 8.0 passing yards per attempt (10th among quarterbacks)
In his rookie season, Tim Tebow edged out both Michael Vick (0.43/0.60) and Aaron Rodgers (0.34/0.53) in both fantasy points per snap and fantasy points per opportunity. Those numbers are a little skewed because Tebow scored 3 rushing touchdowns in only 20 wildcat snaps before being named the starter in Week 15 and he scored 57.1% of his 101.1 total fantasy points rushing the football. However, despite only completing 50.0% of his passes, Tebow finished the season with three straight quality starts of over 24 fantasy points.
Tebow remains one of the most polarizing players in the NFL and especially in fantasy football leagues; you either love him or hate him. Easily the most high-profile player on this list, he is a good buy low candidate because of the uncertainty of who will be the starting quarterback in Denver. While it’s not time to mention Tim Tebow in the same sentence as the elite options like Vick and Rodgers, his production in a limited role in 2010 shows promise for his future in the NFL.
RB Javon Ringer – Titans
2010 Key Stats: 0.32 fantasy points per snap, 0.40 fantasy points per opportunity, 82% opportunity score (rush attempts and pass routes run divided by total snaps)
Javon Ringer has simply been known as Chris Johnson’s backup for the past two seasons, but has shown signs that he can be a starting running back if given the chance. When Ringer did see the field in 2010, he was utilized often and only asked to block 18% of the time.
Ringer (age 24.1) and Johnson (25.4) are both signed with the Titans through 2012, although it doesn’t appear that Johnson will be leaving any time soon. Tennessee only ran the ball 43% of the time in 2010 and the new coaching regime has already indicated they intend to be a run-heavy offense. Ringer could see a temporary boost in value with an increase in carries, and should Johnson miss time due to injury, he is one of the few backups in the league that could handle a featured back workload and become an instant fantasy starter.
The Titans will have a tough decision to make in two years: either let Ringer walk as a free agent or let Johnson go and replace him with the younger and less costly option in Ringer. Both scenarios are beneficial to Ringer’s dynasty stock and, as a result, he could have a Michael Turner-like impact on a new team. Buy low now and keep patient with him at the end of your roster.
RB Joe McKnight – Jets
2010 Key Stats: 0.33 fantasy points per snap, 0.43 fantasy points per opportunity, 78% opportunity score (rush attempts and pass routes run divided by total snaps)
If you watched Joe McKnight’s struggles on Hard Knocks this past summer, you would be hard pressed to believe he is the same running back that carried the ball 32 times for 158 yards in a game this season. It is important to note that McKnight’s breakout game came in Week 17 versus Buffalo as the Jets were resting many of their regulars, but he showed some surprising tough running on his way to 91 running yards after contact (2.8 per attempt).
Future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson has already expressed a desire to return in 2011 and third-year player Shonn Greene also stands in the way of McKnight on the depth chart. McKnight will not have much of an impact in 2011 (our own Mike Clay is projecting 52 carries); however, he is a terrific high-upside player to stash away and could pay off in a big way in 2012.
WR Jerome Simpson – Bengals
2010 Key Stats: 0.42 fantasy points per snap (2nd among wide receivers), 0.90 fantasy points per pass route run, Targeted 35.71% of total pass routes run
Jerome Simpson became a household fantasy name in the fantasy playoffs with 18 receptions for 247 yards and 3 touchdowns in Weeks 16 and 17. Some might be quick to label him as the next Devin Aromashodu (a similar breakout star at the end of 2009) ,but unlike Aromashodu (7th round), Simpson was a second round pick in 2008 and never got his opportunity to be featured until both Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens missed time due to injury.
Acquiring Simpson is a risky proposition due to Carson Palmer’s trade demands and the status of Ochocinco, but there are some solid stats to back up the hype surrounding Simpson. He is unlikely to continue his torrid pace of scoring a fantasy point each time he runs a pass route but is a good bet to finish inside the top-30 wide receivers in 2011.
WR Danario Alexander – Rams
2010 Key Stats: 0.26 fantasy points per snap, Targeted 22.92% of total pass routes run, 67% opportunity score (pass routes run divided by total snaps)
Danario Alexander showed some big-play ability potential with fellow rookie Sam Bradford in 2010. Alexander didn’t see the field much after he was signed off the practice squad for Week 6, but Bradford still looked his way almost 23% of the time he was on the field. A fifth minor knee surgery in Week 7 knocked Alexander out of commission until Week 12 and he saw about 40% of the total snaps mostly in passing situations.
Alexander, a huge target at 6’5”, flashed some of the ability he showed at Missouri in a limited role. Many mock drafts are projecting the Rams to take a wide receiver like Julio Jones in the first round; however, it is more likely they take a defender with Alexander in the fold and both Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton returning from injury. While Alexander’s history of knee injuries keeps his value in check, there is no question he is a potential lottery ticket that you can acquire at a fraction of the cost.
TE Cameron Morrah – Seahawks
2010 Key Stats: Targeted 19.57% of total pass routes run, 0.9 fantasy points per target (17th among tight ends)
Cameron Morrah might have made a mistake when he declared for the 2009 NFL Draft as a redshirt junior after he was selected by Seattle in the seventh round (248 overall). Mostly an afterthought until this season, Morrah started to flash some of the athletic ability he was known for at California.
Morrah graded out as the Seahawks’ top tight end this year over John Carlson, Chris Baker and USC alumni Anthony McCoy. With Carlson (-11.8) only signed through 2011, Morrah has a very good shot at becoming the starter if he can continue his improvement. With dynasty fantasy owners now looking for the next Jermichael Finley, the next young breakout star may very well be Morrah.
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