Two seasons ago, Brandon Lloyd went from unheralded backup wide receiver to a member of the AFC Pro Bowl team, which led me to ask whether his breakout season could have been predicted using statistical indicators. Using key metrics found only at Pro Football Focus, I developed the Lloyd Factor to identify other breakout wide receivers.
To recap the Lloyd Factor, Lloyd’ statistics before the 2010 season seem to indicate that fantasy points alone are not a good barometer to finding breakout players. What is more important is how efficient a wide receiver is on a per play basis and if they can make the most of a limited number of targets. With the benefit of our exclusive data, we can go beyond the box score to see detailed snap data and identify players who were targeted frequently when on the field and produced fantasy points when given the opportunity.
In a limited role, here is how Brandon Lloyd fared in 2008 (Bears) and 2009 (Broncos):
| Year | Name | Team | Games | Snaps | Opp/ Snaps | FP | FP / SN | FP / Opp | TA / SN % | TA / PR % | TA | Rec. | Yds | TD | PFF |
| 2008 | Brandon Lloyd | CHI | 11 | 372 | 61.6% | 74 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 12.4% | 20.1% | 46 | 26 | 364 | 2 | 3.2 |
| 2009 | Brandon Lloyd | DEN | 2 | 103 | 79.6% | 20 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 17.5% | 22.0% | 18 | 8 | 117 | 0 | 0.6 |
(Fantasy Points per Snap, Fantasy Points per Opportunity -Rushing Attempts and Pass Target), Percentage Targeted per Snap, Percentage Target per Pass Route Run, and Percentage of Pass Routes Run and Rushing Attempts per Snap)
Using this data as a baseline, I created the Lloyd Factor for wide receivers with the following criteria:
- Less than 110 fantasy points
- Greater than 0.17 fantasy points per snap
- Greater than 0.21 fantasy points per opportunity
- Greater than 11.8% targeted per snap
- Greater than 19.8% targeted per pass route run
- Greater than 60.0% of the time player runs a pass route or has a rushing attempt
- Positive PFF Rating
The players who would have qualified based on their 2009 season included standouts such as Lance Moore, Steve Johnson, Laurent Robinson and of course Brandon Lloyd.
There were several key fantasy contributors among the eight wide receivers highlighted last season, including Antonio Brown who eventually played in the Pro Bowl. Despite not playing until Week 7 at Miami, Demaryius Thomas also had a successful season. He had over 7 targets in 6 of his 11 games. Golden Tate entered the starting lineup in Week 13 and had 19 receptions for 209 yards and a touchdown in those games.
| Name | Team | Games | Snaps | Opp/Snaps | FP | FP/SN | FP/Opp | TA/SN % | TA/PR % | TA | Rec. | Yds | TD | PFF |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 16 | 575 | 75% | 195 | 0.34 | 0.45 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 120 | 69 | 1108 | 2 | 14.2 |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 11 | 514 | 51% | 112 | 0.22 | 0.42 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 65 | 32 | 551 | 4 | -1.4 |
| Golden Tate | SEA | 16 | 505 | 58% | 92 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 54 | 35 | 382 | 3 | 3.0 |
| Danario Alexander | SL | 10 | 411 | 65% | 81 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 54 | 26 | 431 | 2 | 3.4 |
| Patrick Crayton | SD | 14 | 364 | 70% | 53 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 32 | 23 | 248 | 1 | -6.6 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | BUF | 10 | 281 | 78% | 48 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 26 | 16 | 257 | 1 | -2.6 |
| Adrian Arrington | NO | 4 | 51 | 45% | 5 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Brandon Stokley | NYG | 2 | 27 | 74% | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -0.6 |
Using this metric has produced solid results the last two years, so let us see what players could breakout this year.
Lloyd Factor 2012
Using the Lloyd Factor baseline, here are the wide receivers who qualified for the 2012 season:
| Name | Team | Games | Snaps | Opp/Snaps | FP | FP/SN | FP/Opp | TA/SN % | TA/PR % | TA | Rec. | Yds | TD | PFF |
| Jeremy Kerley | NYJ | 14 | 290 | 79% | 71 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 15.2% | 19.6% | 44 | 29 | 314 | 1 | 3.5 |
| Jacoby Ford | OAK | 8 | 194 | 61% | 54 | 0.28 | 0.46 | 16.5% | 27.8% | 32 | 19 | 283 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | WAS | 4 | 117 | 79% | 29 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 17.1% | 21.7% | 20 | 13 | 163 | 0 | 0.8 |
Jeremy Kerley – NYJ
Kerley began his career in New York as a slot receiver (72% of snaps). Derrick Mason took most of the early season snaps in the slot until his trade to Houston, and then Kerley finally got his chance to see playing time for the rest of the season. The Jets made an effort to get the football to Kerley, with six games with at least four targets. New offensive coordinator Tony Sparano has a track record of using a slot receiver about two-thirds of the time. Even in a conservative run-first offense, Kerley could still make another leap forward with an increase in playing time and targets.
Jacoby Ford – OAK
Ford, another smaller receiver at just 5’9”, was supposed to have a breakout season last year. Injuries limited him to just 8 games and 333 fewer snaps than in 2010. Ford did see an across the board improvement in several metrics. His fantasy points per snap increased by 7 percent and fantasy points per opportunity by 9 percent, with an 8 percent increase in targets per snap and 11 percent increase in targets per pass route. Carson Palmer was clearly looking for Ford when he was on the field. Ford is not just a speedster either. He has two touchdowns on six red zone targets the last two years, and his average depth of target (aDOT) actually decreased from 14.9 to 9.2 yards last year.
Leonard Hankerson – WAS
After seeing just 12 snaps in Weeks 7 and 8 combined, Hankerson played in 91% of the total snaps in Weeks 9 and 10 before a hip injury ended his rookie season. Hankerson was impressive in his two starts, totaling 12 receptions on 15 targets for 140 yards. He now faces a crowded depth chart with the additions of Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon and a resurgent Santana Moss. Garcon is projected as one starter (93% at RWR the last three years with Colts), with an open competition for the other spot. There is a good chance Hankerson could win the other spot at split end as a featured player. He has the size, speed and hands to be a No. 1 wide receiver in time.
Because this year’s version only produced three potential breakout players, I also applied these baselines to all tight ends last season. Not surprisingly, no tight end qualified. I do want to give an honorable mention to one player who came within less than a percentage point in fantasy points per snap and 0.1 in their PFF grade:
| Name | Team | Games | Snaps | Opp/Snaps | FP | FP/SN | FP/Opp | TA/SN % | TA/PR % | TA | Rec. | Yds | TD | PFF |
| Jordan Cameron | CLV | 6 | 57 | 72% | 9 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 22.8% | 31.7% | 13 | 6 | 33 | 0 | -0.1 |
TE Jordan Cameron – CLV
It is tough to consider a player with 9 fantasy points and 57 snaps a breakout player, but Cameron appears primed for a big sophomore season. His target percentage per pass route was the highest in the league among wide receivers and tight ends with at least five targets. Cameron is a raw athlete that the coaching staff has said is one of the players to make the biggest jump since last season with an increase in strength, explosion and improved route running.
Conclusion
The results from the last two seasons are encouraging with the success of Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson, Demaryius Thomas and Lance Moore. This metric needs more time and research, but, if accurate, one of the players above could be the next Brandon Lloyd.
The Hillis Factor 2012 and Breakout Running Backs
—
Ask Bryan Fontaine for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine
Find more of our Dynasty Content here.
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.