Fantasy: Dynasty Slants – Hillis Factor Revisited and the Colts Crisis

“Gentlemen, this is a football.” – Vince Lombardi

Sometimes even the simplest introduction is the best one. What more could be said about the kickoff to the 2011 NFL Season? The lockout seems like it happened forever ago and here we stand ready to start building our fantasy football championship contenders. I, for one, cannot wait until we have fresh data to dig into and give you the edge no one else in your league will have.

The PFF Fantasy staff is committed to providing you with the best free weekly fantasy football advice you can find on the internet this season. Our dynasty-focused content will be no different. In addition, stay tuned for weekly updates to our dynasty rankings as well as a weekly recap of the top rookie performances using our exclusive metrics like fantasy points scored per snap and targets by pass routes run.

Without further adieu, here are the Slants in this edition:

• Hillis Factor Revisited: 2008 Data
• The Crisis in Indianapolis and Future Dynasty Value

Hillis Factor Revisited

If you have followed our dynasty content this offseason, you will know that I created a new metric called the Hillis Factor in June for finding the next breakout running back. Using Peyton Hillis’ small sample size of production on a per play basis in the 2008 and 2009 seasons, I was able to come up with certain criteria that could be used to highlight underutilized running backs that deserve more playing time.

At the time I wrote the article, the metric certainly needed more time and research to determine if it would be worthwhile or merely a coincidence that certain running backs performed well. As I saw several of the running backs I mentioned (Redman, McKnight, Ringer, Ward) do well in the preseason, I wanted to take a closer look back at the 2008 season that was previously omitted.

For a refresher, here is the criterion for the Hillis Factor:

• Fewer than 110 fantasy points scored
• Greater than 0.21 fantasy points per snap
• Greater than 0.39 fantasy points per opportunity
• Greater than or equal to 2.5 yards after contact per rushing attempt

Applying this to all running backs and fullbacks in the 2008 season produced these results:

Aside from J.J. Arrington and Kenneth Darby (out of the NFL), four of these backs rank in the top 20 of Mike Clay’s projections for 2011 (Rice 1, Hillis 9, Jones 15 and Bradshaw 19). It would make sense that Hillis appears on this list since the metric was after his namesake. Ray Rice has been a perennial top running back for the last two seasons, while Bradshaw and Hills became household names in 2010.

For dynasty purposes, the two names to watch closely on this list are Felix Jones and Michael Bush. Jones has had plenty of hype this preseason. It is interesting to note that he is the only first round draft choice to appear, and likely only makes an appearance because of this left hamstring injury he suffered as a rookie. Jones’ efficiency on a per play basis was off the charts in comparison to most other backs in 2008. Jones is a player I have completely changed my opinion on in the last few weeks after seeing him run with patience in the preseason. There is risk involved with either drafting or acquiring Jones, but the payoff could be huge.

Michael Bush’s appearance on this 2008 list marks the second time he makes the cut, joining Titans running back Javon Ringer as the only two time selections. Bush has always been a promising runner and savvy dynasty owners will keep him rostered despite Darren McFadden’s presence in Oakland. Bush is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2012 and could step in to several teams around the NFL as their feature back at age 28.

The jury is still out on the running backs highlighted for the 2011 season, but if the past is any indicator, one or more of them have an excellent chance to be a fantasy contributor this year.

Crisis in Indianapolis

As of press time, Peyton Manning could miss a few games with his recovery from neck surgery or he could miss the entire season and possibly his career. I am no doctor, but that seems extreme to me, especially after the Colts just signed Manning to a new $90 million dollar contract. You will probably read everywhere on the internet to sell off all of your Colts players and consider 2011 a lost season. Not so fast. In fact, this situation presents an excellent buying opportunity into an elite offense. Following the investment advice of Warren Buffett, you should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

Dynasty owners cannot be shortsighted in their evaluations of players and need to factor in at least two to three years into the future. Manning is unlikely to be forced into retirement over this. He should play for another five seasons, which will preserve the fantasy value of the young top fantasy talent in Indianapolis. Make no mistake; Kerry Collins is a stopgap option with his best football behind him. Collins was just productive enough in 2010 (15.3 FP per game) that he is an upgrade over disappointment Curtis Painter and his career 28.6% completion percentage in two games (2009).

Previously this offseason, we recommended Reggie Wayne (age 32, soon to be 33) and Dallas Clark (32) as sell high candidates as they both hit the down side of their careers. This news might shift them both to hold candidates because of the uncertainty of Manning’s injury and because you want to maximize trade value at all times. Austin Collie is also a player that is causing his owners some heartburn. Collie has battled foot and a knee injury in the preseason and his value is a bit precarious now as the starting slot wide receiver in an offense that could become more run-heavy under Collins. It is not to say that Collie cannot become a foundation receiver, but he did play in the slot last year 84 percent of the time. Garcon had a subpar campaign last year and is probably not nearly as bad as his metrics would lead you to believe.

All we know at this point is that Peyton Manning will miss the first start of his career in Week 1. Dynasty owners can be shortsighted and may panic that the wheels are falling off the cart early in Indianapolis. That is not the case. Invest in confidence in many of the Colts players with this buy low opportunity and your dynasty team could reap the benefits for several years in the future.

Follow Bryan on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine

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