Dez Bryant burst on to the fantasy football scene last year as Dallas’ No. 3 wide receiver. He scored six touchdowns over a six game stretch before missing the last four games of his rookie season due to a fractured ankle. A closer look at our premium data not only shows that Bryant could be the top receiving option in Dallas before the end of the season, but also that he could be a legitimate top five dynasty wide receiver at this time next year.
2010 Season
Based on our exclusive grading system, Dez Bryant was the top rated wide receiver for Dallas last year. In fact, he was the only receiver to have a positive grade. Miles Austin struggled to live up to his surprise 2009 season, and his score (-6.8) was reflective of that.
| 2010 Dallas Cowboys Wide Receiver Snap Data | ||||||||
| Pos. | Name | Overall | LWR | SLWR | SRWR | RWR | Other | Total |
| WR | Dez Bryant | 2.7 | 57% | 1% | 2% | 40% | 0% | 100% |
| WR | Miles Austin | -6.8 | 24% | 21% | 23% | 31% | 2% | 100% |
| WR | Roy E. Williams | -1.5 | 41% | 6% | 6% | 47% | 0% | 100% |
| WR | Sam Hurd | -0.8 | 39% | 11% | 13% | 36% | 1% | 100% |
| WR | Manuel Johnson | -0.7 | 38% | 10% | 10% | 43% | 0% | 100% |
| WR | Kevin Ogletree | -2 | 21% | 12% | 17% | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| WR | Jesse Holley | -0.2 | 58% | 8% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 100% |
When you think of a third receiver, you expect someone who works often from the slot. However, Bryant only lined up in the slot 3% of the time and his only target in the slot all year was an interception 37 yards downfield. Bryant played almost exclusively as the X and Z receiver while Austin slid inside to the slot with Roy Williams on the opposite side. In the base offense, Bryant now only has to compete with Austin, Witten and Felix Jones for targets. He is the most talented player of that bunch, but the perception is that he is still third in line for targets from quarterback Tony Romo.
Now that we know that Bryant lined up out wide for the majority of his time as a rookie, we can examine his 12 game sample size for some interesting trends:
| Dez Bryant | Total | LWR | SLWR | SRWR | RWR |
| Total Snaps | 431 | 245 | 4 | 7 | 174 |
| % | 100% | 57% | 1% | 2% | 40% |
| Targets | 71 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 32 |
| Receptions | 45 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Yards | 561 | 325 | 0 | 0 | 236 |
| YAC | 206 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 127 |
| TD | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| INT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Drop | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Blitz | 33 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| % of Targets | 100% | 54% | 0% | 1% | 45% |
| Rec/Targ | 63% | 63% | 0% | 0% | 66% |
| YPR | 12.5 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 |
| Depth/Targ | 12.0 | 14.1 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 8.7 |
| YAC/Rec | 4.6 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 |
| TD/Rec | 13.3% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| INT/Targ | 3% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Drop/Targ | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Blitz/Targ | 46% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| Targ/Snap | 16.5% | 16% | 0% | 14% | 18% |
- The Cowboys were blitzed on 46% of Bryant’s targets.
- Bryant lined up in the slot a total of 11 times with one target and no receptions
- Bryant’s TD rate was almost the same (12.5%/14.3%) as the X and Z receiver
- Bryant’s targets per snap ranked 10th among wide receivers with over 100 snaps played
Do not be quick to assume that Miles Austin is automatically going to be Tony Romo’s favorite target again this year. Bryant bested Austin in many important categories in a smaller sample size:
| Name | Team | Snaps | Overall | TD Rate | YPRR | Rk | Drop Rate | Rk | DP Target %* |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | 431 | 2.7 | 13.3% | 1.68 | 31 | 93.8 | 19 | 18.3 |
| Miles Austin | DAL | 1018 | -6.8 | 10.1% | 1.66 | 34 | 86.3 | 73 | 15.7 |
*Percentage of targets that came on deep passes of over 20 yards
Top Dynasty Wide Receiver
So while it appears Bryant has a legitimate shot to be the most valuable Cowboys’ wide receiver in 2011, what is his dynasty value? A quick glimpse at my top dynasty wide receivers rankings will give us some indication:
| Rk | Pos | Name | Team | Age | Score | PFF Ovr |
| 1 | WR | Andre Johnson | HOU | 30.1 | 93.22 | 14.3 |
| 2 | WR | Roddy White | ATL | 29.8 | 92.73 | 4.9 |
| 3 | WR | Calvin Johnson | DET | 25.9 | 91.97 | 13.5 |
| 4 | WR | Hakeem Nicks | NYG | 23.6 | 89.38 | 6.4 |
| 5 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 27.9 | 85.46 | 8.8 |
| 7 | WR | Dez Bryant | DAL | 22.8 | 77.93 | 2.7 |
Dez Bryant is currently my seventh ranked wide receiver before the 2011 season starts. Andre Johnson and Roddy White top the list, but both will be 30 years old this season and they will start to slow down in the next few years. Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, and Larry Fitzgerald are all in their prime and the unquestioned top receiving option on their respective teams. Andre Johnson only has to compete with Owen Daniels for targets, while White now has rookie phenom Julio Jones as a sidekick. It would not be shocking to see White regress and for Bryant to take his spot in my top five.
Bryant’s rookie season compares favorably to another receiver’s rookie season on this list: Hakeem Nicks.
| Year | Player | Pos | FP | FP/SN | FP/Opp | TA/SN % | TA/PR | Snaps |
| 2010 | Dez Bryant | WR | 136.1 | 0.32 | 0.41 | 16.5 | 21.3 | 431 |
| 2009 | Hakeem Nicks | WR | 160.8 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 13.2 | 19.3 | 531 |
Aside from the difference in fantasy points scored, the two players had nearly the same efficiency in a limited role as rookies. Bryant scored more fantasy points on a per play basis and was targeted at a higher rate while on the field than Nicks was. We know that Nicks was able to parlay his rookie success into a breakout sophomore campaign and Bryant looks primed for a similar season.
Conclusion
Dez Bryant is primed for a breakout season in 2011. He has a starting role locked up in the Cowboys’ high-powered offense with one of the better quarterbacks in the league throwing him the ball. We do not have to speculate on the impact his snap distribution will have on his new role, because he already lined up out wide 97% of the time as a rookie. Already the best receiver on the Cowboys’ depth chart, calling Bryant one of the best in the league by the end of the season does not sound so crazy.
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