When I created the Hillis Factor metric this off-season to find breakout running backs, I did not anticipate the player whose namesake it was named after having a sub par season. Peyton Hillis has struggled with injuries on a lowly Browns team this year, but his breakout season from 2010 still created the perfect storm of placing a player who excelled in a limited role before the chance to see the field often. For the record, Hillis can still re-qualify for his own metric with a strong finish.
I will take the chance to review how the 2010 breakout running back candidates have done so far and look ahead to some running backs to target for the 2012 season. Here are the slants this week:
Hillis Factor Revisited
For those that are new to the Hillis Factor, the concept behind it is that fantasy points alone are not a good barometer to finding breakout players. What is more important is how efficient a running back is on a per play basis and if they can create positive plays on their own.
Using Peyton Hillis’ first two seasons in the NFL as a sample case study, I arrived at the following metrics:
Hillis Factor criteria:
- Less than 110 fantasy points.
- Greater than 0.21 fantasy points per snap
- Greater than 0.39 fantasy points per opportunity
- Greater than or equal to 2.5 yards after contact per rushing attempt
I was originally intrigued with some of the names that turned up on the 2009 Hillis Factor list – Arian Foster, Mike Tolbert, Peyton Hillis (of course), Shonn Greene and Michael Bush.
With two games left in the 2011 season, it is safe to reevaluate how the 2010 Hillis Factor class has fared so far. Unfortunately the list of players going into the season have not been as impressive– Javon Ringer, Isaac Redman, Joe McKnight, Derrick Ward and Chris Ivory. In fact, none of those five players re-qualify for next year without a strong finish:
| Pos | Name | Team | Overall | Games | Snaps | FP | FP / SN | FP / Opp | Yco / Att. |
| HB | Javon Ringer | TEN | 2.2 | 12 | 240 | 71 | 0.30 | 0.37 | 1.7 |
| HB | Isaac Redman | PIT | 10.1 | 14 | 267 | 60 | 0.23 | 0.35 | 3.0 |
| HB | Joe McKnight | NYJ | 1.8 | 10 | 103 | 40 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 2.1 |
| HB | Derrick Ward | HST | 0.2 | 4 | 46 | 22 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 2.1 |
| HB | Chris Ivory | NO | 1.6 | 4 | 72 | 21 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 2.6 |
Instead of producing another superstar like Arian Foster, this list of players still has some major question marks. Ringer, Redman and Ivory have feature back potential – but their chance at that will likely have to come on another team. I still have these three players stashed on nearly all my dynasty teams.
Some might review these results and say this metric has no merit based on the results from this year. It is a good thing I am stubborn enough to not give up yet. Which brings me a sneak peek of some running backs that are early qualifiers for the next installment this offseason.
2012 Hillis Factor Early Sneak Preview
The following running backs are early qualifiers for breakout candidates next year:
| Pos | Name | Team | Overall | Games | Snaps | FP | FP / SN | FP / Opp | Yco / Att. |
| HB | Shane Vereen | NE | -0.1 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 0.49 | 0.65 | 4.3 |
| HB | Taiwan Jones | OAK | 1.4 | 8 | 29 | 12 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 4.0 |
| HB | Jeremiah Johnson | DEN | 0.2 | 4 | 40 | 13 | 0.34 | 0.46 | 3.0 |
| HB | Stevan Ridley | NE | 1.3 | 10 | 118 | 40 | 0.34 | 0.40 | 2.9 |
| HB | Phillip Tanner | DAL | 0.6 | 4 | 48 | 17 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 2.7 |
| HB | Jackie Battle | KC | 6.8 | 14 | 271 | 82 | 0.30 | 0.41 | 2.7 |
| HB | Brandon Saine | GB | 1.1 | 4 | 39 | 16 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 2.7 |
| HB | Kendall Hunter | SF | 2.8 | 13 | 215 | 75 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 2.6 |
The most intriguing names are the New England duo (Shane Vereen/Stevan Ridley), Taiwan Jones and Kendall Hunter. As I covered last week, Ridley and Vereen are in for a major boost in value if BenJarvus Green-Ellis leaves in free agency. Jones could see more time if Michael Bush is not retained and Darren McFadden continues to suffer from injuries. Frank Gore is bound to decline at some point, and Hunter is the only back on the active roster that could fill in his full time role.
The results from the 2009 season were encouraging with Hillis, Foster and Tolbert as breakouts. The list of players from the 2010 season was steady, but did not produce a breakout candidate. This metric still needs more time and research, however could still find the next Peyton Hillis.
Quick Slants
The overall leader in fantasy points scored per snap through Week 15? Quarterback Jake Locker of course. Locker leads all position players with 0.64 fantasy points per snap (63 FP, 98 snaps). Here is hoping Locker is starting for the Titans in 2012.
Tim Tebow may have finally had his win streak snapped by the Patriots; however, he is quickly proving to be a weekly top-10 option. I wrote this back in July on why I thought Tebow had top-10 potential. Tebow ranks 18th among quarterbacks in fantasy points (17th in FP/Game), but removing his Week 2 (4 snaps) and Week 4 (1 snap) appearances – Tebow would rank in the top-10 in fantasy points per game (22.0). Now that John Elway has warmed to starting Tebow in 2012, it is safe to value Tebow as a low-end QB1 going forward.
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Ask Bryan Fontaine for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine
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