Fantasy: Dynasty Slants – Can Tim Tebow be a Top-10 Fantasy QB?

Many fantasy owners know Tim Tebow quite well from his time at Florida. They may know him even better after he led their teams to league championships with his heroic performance in the 2010 fantasy playoffs.  One of the questions many owners have now is whether they can trust Tebow going forward.

Not only can you trust Tebow going forward, he has top-10 QB upside in your dynasty league.

Before I start breaking down Tebow’s statistics, who better to ask if he can be trusted and be successful than one of his teammates in Denver?

“Yes.  [Tebow] can be trusted and he can be successful. The mechanics need to be dialed in more, [though]. The number one reason why I say that is because I’ve just never seen anybody with the will, determination, and desire to make one single play successful. The kid wants every play to work. A handoff, a pass play, a quarterback draw … anything, he just wants it to work. It’s awesome to see that kind of desire because you see in a lot of young guys, “Oh well … I hope this works.” That means you’re just going to chuck the ball up and hope something happens.”

-Broncos wide receiver Brandon Lloyd to PFF’s Steve Wyremski

Fantasy Points per Snap

Tebow scored more fantasy points per snap and opportunity than any other quarterback did in 2010:

You may be quick to point out that Tebow was not named the starter until Week 15 at Oakland and that he scored three rushing touchdowns in just 20 wildcat snaps before then, which would inflate his stats.  Only counting Tebow’s three starts to end the season(*), he still would have finished as the top QB on a per snap basis over Vick and Rodgers.

Running Ability

Tebow is not an accomplished quarterback in the NFL yet, but his running ability makes up the gap in his fantasy value.  In fact, he scored 57.8% of his fantasy points rushing the football.  He also posted a running back-like 2.5 rushing yards after contact per attempt showing his toughness and desire:

Looking at this chart, most of Tebow’s runs were by design but he did also display adequate scrambling ability when pressured.  His scrambles accounted for 23.2% of his total attempts, but how often did he scramble?

Here is a chart of quarterbacks with the highest scramble percentage on drop backs (minimum 200 snaps):

Not surprisingly, Tebow checks in second behind the resurgent Michael Vick in this category.

Passing

Scouts had the biggest questions about Tebow’s throwing ability when he entered the NFL.  His 50.0% completion percentage is not likely to silence any of his critics regarding his accuracy, but his passing data indicates he has room to grow and can throw to all parts of the field.

Tebow, a left-handed quarterback, favored his left when looking downfield, as expected, and threw a high percentage of screen passes in the middle of the field.

As our own Steve Wyremski pointed out in his interview with Lloyd, Tebow was still able to keep Lloyd’s Pro Bowl season on track (263 receiving yards, 2 TD) in his three starts.

Conclusion

Tim Tebow remains a polarizing player; you either love him or hate him.  It is hard not to like a player with Tebow’s will, determination, work ethic and character coupled with a desire to win at all costs (2 National Championships and a Heisman Trophy at Florida).

Tebow has the potential to be a top-10 quarterback in your dynasty league, but just as the data shows here, based on his small sample size, he must continue to develop his game before he can be mentioned in the same breath as Rodgers and Vick.

Follow Bryan on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine

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