It was a busy offseason for coaching changes, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Although only six head coaching changes were made, a ridiculous 16 new offensive coordinators were hired. It doesn’t take a math whiz to figure out that we’re talking about exactly half the league changing offensive coordinators.
Today, I’ll be examining a handful of those changes. When running projections or creating player rankings, it’s always key to consider the impact a coaching change will make in several areas, including pass/run ratio, personnel packages, and target distribution. We know the Tony Sparano-led Dolphins weren’t afraid to lean heavily on the run, but what changes now that ex-Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin has brought his philosophy to town? Today, I’ll help answer that question.
Note that I’m not reviewing all offensive coaching changes, as I’m only focusing on those in which we have real, tangible data on the coaches from the last four seasons. The unanalyzed coaching moves are, however, listed at the bottom of this piece.
Atlanta Falcons Offensive Coordinator
Out: Mike Mularkey
In: Dirk Koetter
AND
Jacksonville Jaguars Head Coach / Offensive Coordinator
Out: Jack Del Rio/Mel Tucker (HC), Dirk Koetter (OC)
In: Mike Mularkey (HC), Bob Bratkowski (OC)
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Mularkey | ATL OC | 2008 | 17 | 48% | 52% | 360 | 2.4 | 66% | 9.5 | 4.3% | 48% | 28% | 8% | 16% | 0% |
| ATL OC | 2009 | 16 | 58% | 42% | 347 | 2.6 | 65% | 9.0 | 4.6% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 16% | 1% | |
| ATL OC | 2010 | 17 | 57% | 43% | 344 | 2.6 | 67% | 8.7 | 4.3% | 51% | 23% | 10% | 16% | 0% | |
| ATL OC | 2011 | 17 | 60% | 40% | 381 | 2.5 | 66% | 9.3 | 4.3% | 47% | 26% | 10% | 16% | 0% | |
| Total | 67 | 56% | 44% | 358 | 2.5 | 66% | 9.1 | 4.3% | 47% | 26% | 10% | 16% | 0% | ||
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Koetter | JAX OC | 2008 | 16 | 62% | 38% | 335 | 1.9 | 67% | 8.7 | 7.3% | 43% | 23% | 11% | 22% | 1% |
| JAX OC | 2009 | 16 | 60% | 40% | 352 | 2.1 | 68% | 8.9 | 8.0% | 45% | 22% | 12% | 19% | 1% | |
| JAX OC | 2010 | 16 | 53% | 47% | 358 | 2.5 | 67% | 9.0 | 8.6% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 21% | 0% | |
| JAX OC | 2011 | 16 | 54% | 46% | 280 | 1.3 | 56% | 8.0 | 8.6% | 40% | 26% | 15% | 19% | 0% | |
| Total | 64 | 57% | 43% | 331 | 2.0 | 65% | 8.7 | 8.1% | 43% | 24% | 12% | 20% | 1% | ||
Here we have a rare opportunity to compare a pair of coaches who very recently held the same position with their team for several consecutive seasons. Additionally, they kind of traded places. Ex-Falcons offensive coordinator takes over as the Jaguars head man, while Dirk Koetter has left his post as Jaguars’ offensive coordinator to take the same job with Atlanta.
We see that Mularkey has had some success with Atlanta’s offense over the last few seasons, while Koetter has struggled in Jacksonville. It’s not a stretch to say that Mularkey’s personnel was a bit more talented, but it’s still a concern that his best season of the last four years was pretty close to Mularkey’s worst. We see here that the two sport a similar overall pass/run ratio, but note that Mularkey’s Falcons have leaned more towards the pass over the last few seasons, while Koetter has run a very run-heavy offense since the start of 2010. Mularkey’s offense averaged just over 100 total yards more than Koetter’s in 2011.
In terms of target distribution, we see a bigger usage of the X and Z receivers by Mularkey, while Koetter leans heavier on his backs. The Jaguars have struggled to land impact wide receivers, but that’s not really the explanation here, as they’re actually slightly above average in throws to the position. The Falcons haven’t really thrown to their backs recently, but that’s mainly due to Michael Turner’s skill-set. The emergence of Jacquizz Rodgers could allow Koetter to stick to what he’s done with Maurice Jones-Drew and Co. over the last few seasons.
Cleveland Browns Offensive Coordinator
Out: Pat Shurmur (still Head Coach)
In: Brad Childress
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Shurmur | N/A | 2008 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| SL OC | 2009 | 16 | 61% | 39% | 293 | 1.0 | 62% | 7.2 | 8.1% | 43% | 23% | 14% | 20% | 0% | |
| SL OC | 2010 | 16 | 61% | 39% | 319 | 1.7 | 66% | 6.8 | 5.3% | 40% | 31% | 12% | 16% | 0% | |
| CLV HC | 2011 | 16 | 64% | 36% | 302 | 1.3 | 60% | 7.9 | 6.7% | 39% | 24% | 21% | 16% | 1% | |
| Total | 48 | 62% | 38% | 305 | 1.3 | 63% | 7.3 | 6.7% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 17% | 0% | ||
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Childress | MIN HC | 2008 | 17 | 51% | 49% | 344 | 2.3 | 62% | 8.8 | 8.9% | 40% | 20% | 14% | 25% | 1% |
| MIN HC | 2009 | 18 | 56% | 44% | 396 | 3.3 | 70% | 8.4 | 5.4% | 37% | 26% | 14% | 23% | 1% | |
| MIN HC | 2010 | 10 | 58% | 42% | 349 | 1.9 | 63% | 8.8 | 5.6% | 38% | 27% | 15% | 20% | 0% | |
| N/A | 2011 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Total | 45 | 55% | 45% | 366 | 2.6 | 66% | 8.6 | 6.7% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 23% | 1% | ||
There’s not a ton to discuss here, because Shurmur is still in town. Despite relinquishing some of his Offensive Coordinator duties to the former Vikings head coach, Shurmur will still be heavily involved in the team’s philosophy on the offensive side.
That said, there are still a few items we can keep an eye on. For one, we see that Childress has been more of a run-first coach, as compared to pass-first Shurmur. It certainly helped that Childress had Adrian Peterson, but Shurmur has worked with Steven Jackson and Peyton Hillis, which isn’t too shabby. Across the board, we see that Childress’ team’s since 2008 have been significantly more productive than Shurmur’s Rams/Browns.
In terms of target distribution, there’s not a huge variation between the two. Shurmur is pretty close to the league averages, while Childress steals away a few targets from the wide receivers and sends them to his backs. This could mean a boost for whoever lines up in the backfield on passing downs for the Browns in 2012. Right now, Brandon Jackson has that role, but it could change depending on the draft.
Indianapolis Colts Head Coach / Offensive Coordinator
Out: Jim Caldwell (HC), Clyde Christiansen (OC)
In: Chuck Pagano (HC), Bruce Arians (OC)
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Christensen | N/A | 2008 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| IND HC | 2009 | 19 | 64% | 36% | 375 | 3.0 | 69% | 9.1 | 2.3% | 43% | 25% | 19% | 14% | 0% | |
| IND HC | 2010 | 17 | 63% | 37% | 382 | 2.8 | 68% | 9.0 | 2.6% | 46% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 0% | |
| IND HC | 2011 | 16 | 61% | 39% | 300 | 1.4 | 62% | 8.6 | 6.6% | 49% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 0% | |
| Total | 52 | 63% | 37% | 354 | 2.4 | 67% | 8.9 | 3.6% | 46% | 26% | 18% | 11% | 0% | ||
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Arians | PIT OC | 2008 | 19 | 57% | 43% | 326 | 2.1 | 64% | 9.6 | 9.8% | 39% | 35% | 14% | 12% | 0% |
| PIT OC | 2009 | 16 | 59% | 41% | 393 | 2.4 | 70% | 9.9 | 9.4% | 43% | 31% | 12% | 14% | 0% | |
| PIT OC | 2010 | 19 | 55% | 45% | 358 | 2.4 | 66% | 10.2 | 9.5% | 50% | 22% | 14% | 14% | 0% | |
| PIT OC | 2011 | 17 | 59% | 41% | 391 | 2.1 | 65% | 9.6 | 7.9% | 52% | 24% | 13% | 12% | 0% | |
| Total | 71 | 57% | 43% | 365 | 2.2 | 66% | 9.8 | 9.2% | 46% | 28% | 13% | 13% | 0% | ||
We have a decent sample size of data to work with here. Caldwell has been the head man in Indianapolis over the last three seasons and Clyde Christensen has been his offensive coordinator. Christensen is still on the Colts’ staff, but has been demoted to quarterbacks coach. Meanwhile, defensive-minded Chuck Pagano takes over as head coach, and Bruce Arians has been hired to run the offense. Arians has spent the last five seasons as the Steeler’s offensive coordinator.
Comparing the two, we see a much more pass-heavy approach from Christiansen, but keep in mind that he spent 2009 and 2010 with Peyton Manning and 2011 playing from behind (Colts managed only 102 offensive snaps with a lead – dead last in the NFL). Although Arians was unafraid to throw the ball if need be, the Steelers reached the playoffs three of the last four years, meaning more wins and thus more opportunities to run the ball late. Regardless, we see a relatively run-first approach from Arians.
Another item that jumps out is sack rate. Ben Roethlisberger is known for holding onto the ball too long and Peyton Manning is known for avoiding sacks, so this isn’t anything to be too alarmed about.
Turning to target distribution, we see that the two coaches are fairly even outside of using the in-line tight end. The Colts made plenty of use out of Dallas Clark, while Heath Miller was used as much as a blocker as he was a pass-catcher. Note that neither coach relies much on the back in the passing game. This can partially be attributed to lack of a dominant pass-catching threat at tailback (Joseph Addai, Rashard Mendenhall), but it’s worth noting that both have been consistently low in this area for several years now. Arians won’t bring a huge boost to Donald Brown or Delone Carter in the pass game.
Finally, notice heavy usage of the outside wide receivers by Arians in both 2010 and 2011 after tailing away from the slot man. This can certainly be somewhat attributed to the emergence of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, as well as, the demise of slot man Hines Ward. It seems that Arians is flexible enough to take what his wide receiving unit will give him. Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie should have no trouble finding targets.
Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Coordinator
Out: Bill Muir
In: Brian Daboll
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Muir | TB OC | 2008 | 16 | 60% | 40% | 350 | 1.9 | 67% | 7.6 | 5.3% | 34% | 26% | 17% | 21% | 1% |
| N/A | 2009 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| N/A | 2010 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| KC OC | 2011 | 16 | 55% | 45% | 324 | 1.1 | 64% | 8.6 | 6.5% | 54% | 16% | 10% | 20% | 0% | |
| Total | 32 | 57% | 43% | 337 | 1.5 | 66% | 8.1 | 5.9% | 44% | 21% | 14% | 20% | 1% | ||
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Daboll | N/A | 2008 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| CLV OC | 2009 | 16 | 50% | 50% | 271 | 1.3 | 54% | 9.4 | 6.5% | 37% | 26% | 14% | 23% | 1% | |
| CLV OC | 2010 | 16 | 58% | 42% | 299 | 1.6 | 67% | 8.7 | 7.1% | 38% | 24% | 17% | 20% | 0% | |
| MIA OC | 2011 | 16 | 55% | 45% | 338 | 1.9 | 64% | 10.3 | 10.5% | 47% | 25% | 12% | 16% | 0% | |
| Total | 48 | 54% | 46% | 303 | 1.6 | 62% | 9.4 | 8.1% | 41% | 25% | 14% | 19% | 0% | ||
It’s a bit tough to get a read on a guy like Bill Muir, who has had two seasons as an offensive coordinator over the last four years, both with different teams and two years apart. In 2008, he ran a conservative Bucs’ offense that managed a low average depth of throw of 7.6. This was a product of making little use of the X and Z receivers. Skip two years and we see Muir relying heavily on Dwayne Bowe and the outside wide receivers in Kansas City, while barely using the slot man.
On the other hand, we have three consecutive years of Brian Daboll as an offensive coordinator (2009-10 with the Browns, 2011 with the Dolphins). Overall, Daboll has leaned towards a run-first offense. Even the Dolphins – expected to struggle running the ball with rookie Daniel Thomas and injury-plagued Reggie Bush – ran 45% of the time last season. We see that Daboll has been more liberal with his pass game, as shown by a lower completion rate, a higher depth of throw, and a higher sack rate.
Target distribution for Daboll is pretty much on line with the league average, but he did move more towards the X and Z last season, which was mainly a product of making heavy use of Brandon Marshall. Expect the trend to continue upwards, as the new Chiefs offense is likely to go two-tight end heavy after adding Kevin Boss to the mix.
Miami Dolphins Head Coach / Offensive Coordinator
Out: Tony Sparano/Todd Bowles (HC), Brian Daboll (OC)
In: Joe Philbin (HC), Mike Sherman (OC)
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Sparano | MIA HC | 2008 | 17 | 56% | 44% | 348 | 2.2 | 70% | 7.9 | 5.3% | 42% | 28% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| MIA HC | 2009 | 16 | 55% | 45% | 352 | 2.3 | 66% | 8.8 | 5.9% | 46% | 22% | 12% | 19% | 1% | |
| MIA HC | 2010 | 16 | 60% | 40% | 335 | 1.6 | 66% | 8.6 | 6.3% | 52% | 23% | 8% | 18% | 0% | |
| MIA HC | 2011 | 13 | 56% | 44% | 333 | 1.8 | 65% | 9.7 | 10.8% | 47% | 25% | 11% | 17% | 0% | |
| Total | 62 | 57% | 43% | 343 | 2.0 | 67% | 8.7 | 6.9% | 47% | 24% | 10% | 19% | 0% | ||
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Philbin | GB OC | 2008 | 16 | 60% | 40% | 366 | 2.4 | 68% | 9.4 | 5.5% | 45% | 29% | 8% | 17% | 1% |
| GB OC | 2009 | 17 | 62% | 38% | 406 | 3.3 | 69% | 9.2 | 8.6% | 45% | 27% | 13% | 15% | 1% | |
| GB OC | 2010 | 20 | 62% | 38% | 374 | 2.8 | 69% | 9.5 | 6.5% | 46% | 32% | 6% | 16% | 0% | |
| GB OC | 2011 | 17 | 65% | 35% | 419 | 3.8 | 71% | 9.2 | 6.5% | 42% | 29% | 11% | 18% | 0% | |
| Total | 70 | 62% | 38% | 391 | 3.1 | 69% | 9.3 | 6.8% | 44% | 29% | 9% | 16% | 0% | ||
It’s a total overhaul to the offensive gameplan in Miami. Out are Mr. Wildcat Tony Sparano and the aforementioned Brian Daboll. Even interim head coach Todd Bowles is out and headed to Philadelphia to coach the defensive backs. Former Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin has brought his spread-it-around pass game and zone run blocking scheme to Miami and has hired Mike Sherman to run the offense…although we know Philbin will be heavily involved.
Comparing the two offensive minds over the last four seasons, we need to consider that one coach has Aaron Rodgers to work with (Philbin), while the other dealt with a group of quarterbacks led by Chad Henne (Sparano). Anyways, we clearly see a more pass-heavy approach from Philbin. Miami didn’t have a ton of success under Sparano, which meant playing from behind quite often, but he still managed to keep his backs busy. Philbin, meanwhile, threw the ball early and often. In fact, despite almost going 16-0 in 2011, the Packers were the league’s third pass-heaviest team (65%) and, furthermore, no team threw with the lead more than Green Bay (61%).
We see Philbin’s offenses scoring over a full touchdown more per game on offense than Sparano’s. Interestingly, though, the other passing data isn’t far off. We see only a slightly higher completion percentage and a slightly lower sack rate for Packers’ quarterbacks. Even average depth of target was pretty even over the last four years and, in fact, Miami’s was 0.5 higher than Green Bay’s in 2011.
Finally, we’ll look at target distribution. Nothing jumps off the page here, but we do see Philbin using the slot position a bit more often than Sparano. This isn’t a shocker considering that the Packers we’re never afraid to spread out into a five-wide offensive set. Neither coach relies much on the in-line tight end, which means that Anthony Fasano (in-line 88% of the time in 2011) would have to work in the slot more often to really see a boost in value.
New York Jets Offensive Coordinator
Out: Brian Schottenheimer
In: Tony Sparano
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Schottenheimer | NYJ OC | 2008 | 16 | 58% | 42% | 344 | 2.6 | 68% | 7.8 | 5.7% | 36% | 31% | 13% | 19% | 1% |
| NYJ OC | 2009 | 19 | 42% | 58% | 330 | 2.2 | 59% | 9.9 | 5.5% | 44% | 29% | 13% | 14% | 0% | |
| NYJ OC | 2010 | 19 | 52% | 48% | 355 | 2.2 | 60% | 9.6 | 4.9% | 42% | 24% | 14% | 20% | 0% | |
| NYJ OC | 2011 | 16 | 59% | 41% | 327 | 2.5 | 61% | 8.6 | 6.9% | 38% | 27% | 13% | 21% | 0% | |
| Total | 70 | 52% | 48% | 339 | 2.4 | 62% | 9.0 | 5.7% | 40% | 27% | 13% | 19% | 0% | ||
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Sparano | MIA HC | 2008 | 17 | 56% | 44% | 348 | 2.2 | 70% | 7.9 | 5.3% | 42% | 28% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| MIA HC | 2009 | 16 | 55% | 45% | 352 | 2.3 | 66% | 8.8 | 5.9% | 46% | 22% | 12% | 19% | 1% | |
| MIA HC | 2010 | 16 | 60% | 40% | 335 | 1.6 | 66% | 8.6 | 6.3% | 52% | 23% | 8% | 18% | 0% | |
| MIA HC | 2011 | 13 | 56% | 44% | 333 | 1.8 | 65% | 9.7 | 10.8% | 47% | 25% | 11% | 17% | 0% | |
| Total | 62 | 57% | 43% | 343 | 2.0 | 67% | 8.7 | 6.9% | 47% | 24% | 10% | 19% | 0% | ||
Well, I just got done talking about Sparano, so check out the previous entry on the Dolphins’ changes for additional data on the Jets’ new offensive coordinator.
As for comparing the two coaches, we can start with pass/run rate. Although Sparano has leaned towards a run-first offense, the Jets have been one of the game’s run-heaviest offenses of the last three seasons. We do see, though, that Schottenheimer’s offense threw the ball 58% of the time in 2008 (before Rex Ryan) and was back up to 59% in 2011, so he’s flexible. Rex Ryan and rookie QB Mark Sanchez obviously had a big impact on the team’s absurdly run-heavy 42% pass rate in 2009.
We also see here that Sparano’s offense averaged slightly more yards per game and completed a higher percentage of its passes than Sparano’s. Schottenheimer’s averaged more touchdowns and fewer sacks.
Focusing on target distribution, we see that Sparano has made much better use of the X and Z wide receivers, while Schottenheimer spreads those targets to the slot receiver and in-line tight end. Sparano has thrown to the X/Z, at least, 46% of the time over the last three seasons, while Schottenheimer hasn’t reached 44% in a single season since 2008. This theoretically could mean a small boost for Santonio Holmes, but his value is already in the toilet considering the Jets’ plans to keep Tim Tebow heavily involved in a run-first attack…not to mention Sanchez’s ineffectiveness and the fact that Holmes also spends about a third of his snaps in the slot.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offensive Coordinator
Out: Bruce Arians
In: Todd Haley
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Arians | PIT OC | 2008 | 19 | 57% | 43% | 326 | 2.1 | 64% | 9.6 | 9.8% | 39% | 35% | 14% | 12% | 0% |
| PIT OC | 2009 | 16 | 59% | 41% | 393 | 2.4 | 70% | 9.9 | 9.4% | 43% | 31% | 12% | 14% | 0% | |
| PIT OC | 2010 | 19 | 55% | 45% | 358 | 2.4 | 66% | 10.2 | 9.5% | 50% | 22% | 14% | 14% | 0% | |
| PIT OC | 2011 | 17 | 59% | 41% | 391 | 2.1 | 65% | 9.6 | 7.9% | 52% | 24% | 13% | 12% | 0% | |
| Total | 71 | 57% | 43% | 365 | 2.2 | 66% | 9.8 | 9.2% | 46% | 28% | 13% | 13% | 0% | ||
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Haley | ARZ OC | 2008 | 20 | 64% | 36% | 378 | 2.9 | 73% | 7.3 | 4.2% | 40% | 37% | 4% | 18% | 1% |
| KC HC | 2009 | 16 | 61% | 39% | 320 | 1.6 | 60% | 8.8 | 7.7% | 45% | 27% | 9% | 19% | 1% | |
| KC HC | 2010 | 17 | 50% | 50% | 352 | 2.4 | 64% | 8.9 | 6.9% | 43% | 23% | 11% | 22% | 0% | |
| KC HC | 2011 | 13 | 56% | 44% | 310 | 1.2 | 64% | 8.6 | 7.6% | 53% | 18% | 10% | 19% | 0% | |
| Total | 62 | 57% | 43% | 343 | 2.0 | 67% | 8.7 | 6.9% | 47% | 24% | 10% | 19% | 0% | ||
Before we get going, you can check out the Colts’ changes from earlier in this piece for more on Bruce Arians. Arians, of course, was let go by the Steelers and, after announcing his retirement, decided to make a return and take over the Colts’ offense. Meanwhile, former Cardinals’ offensive coordinator and, more recently, the fired head coach of the Chiefs, takes over the Steelers’ offense.
Kicking off with the data, we see the exact same pass/run ratio for both coaches. Arian’s has been as consistent as they come over the last four years, while Haley has moved to a more run-friendly approach since 2010. Aside of his years with Kurt Warner, Haley’s offenses haven’t been overly effective, and – 2010 aside- have fallen short of what Arians has done with Pittsburgh. Of course, injuries to Jamaal Charles, Matt Cassel, and Tony Moeaki certainly give Haley somewhat of an excuse in 2011. Another item that jumps out is Arian’s propensity to have passes delivered further down field. Going hand-in-hand with that is a much steeper sack rate.
On to target distribution where we see Arians not paying much attention to the tail back in factor of his wideouts, while Haley favors the X and Z receivers over the in-line tight end and slot man. In 2011, we see a whopping 53% of the Chiefs’ throws being delivered to an X or Z receiver, while only 18% when to the slot man. Unlike Arians, Haley does get the back to his backs, so it’s fair to give a boost to Issac Redman and whoever ends up catching the passes on third down (likely Baron Batch or Mewelde Moore).
St. Louis Rams Head Coach / Offensive Coordinator
Out: Steve Spagnuolo (HC), Josh McDaniels (OC)
In: Jeff Fisher (HC), Brian Schottenheimer (OC)
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Spagnuolo | N/A | 2008 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| SL HC | 2009 | 16 | 61% | 39% | 293 | 1.0 | 62% | 7.2 | 8.1% | 43% | 23% | 14% | 20% | 0% | |
| SL HC | 2010 | 16 | 61% | 39% | 319 | 1.7 | 66% | 6.8 | 5.3% | 40% | 31% | 12% | 16% | 0% | |
| SL HC | 2011 | 16 | 61% | 39% | 307 | 1.0 | 58% | 9.0 | 9.1% | 51% | 20% | 13% | 16% | 0% | |
| Total | 48 | 61% | 39% | 306 | 1.2 | 62% | 7.7 | 7.5% | 45% | 25% | 13% | 17% | 0% | ||
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Fisher | TEN HC | 2008 | 17 | 50% | 50% | 323 | 2.2 | 64% | 8.6 | 2.3% | 40% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 0% |
| TEN HC | 2009 | 16 | 53% | 47% | 358 | 2.2 | 63% | 9.4 | 2.9% | 44% | 17% | 17% | 21% | 1% | |
| TEN HC | 2010 | 16 | 57% | 43% | 312 | 2.3 | 62% | 10.9 | 5.0% | 43% | 24% | 12% | 21% | 0% | |
| N/A | 2011 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Total | 49 | 53% | 47% | 331 | 2.2 | 63% | 9.6 | 3.4% | 42% | 19% | 16% | 22% | 0% | ||
| General | Passing | % of Targets by position | |||||||||||||
| Coach | Job | Year | G | Pass% | Run% | YPG | TD/G | Comp% | aDOT | Sack% | Wide | Slot | IL | Back | Other |
| Schottenheimer | NYJ OC | 2008 | 16 | 58% | 42% | 344 | 2.6 | 68% | 7.8 | 5.7% | 36% | 31% | 13% | 19% | 1% |
| NYJ OC | 2009 | 19 | 42% | 58% | 330 | 2.2 | 59% | 9.9 | 5.5% | 44% | 29% | 13% | 14% | 0% | |
| NYJ OC | 2010 | 19 | 52% | 48% | 355 | 2.2 | 60% | 9.6 | 4.9% | 42% | 24% | 14% | 20% | 0% | |
| NYJ OC | 2011 | 16 | 59% | 41% | 327 | 2.5 | 61% | 8.6 | 6.9% | 38% | 27% | 13% | 21% | 0% | |
| Total | 70 | 52% | 48% | 339 | 2.4 | 62% | 9.0 | 5.7% | 40% | 27% | 13% | 19% | 0% | ||
We have yet another overhaul to the coaching staff in St. Louis. In is long-time Titans’ head coach Jeff Fisher and the aforementioned ex-Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. Out is head man Steve Spagnuolo and 2011 offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
I hadn’t needed to do this before, but this time I included data on three coaches. We have Spagnuolo from the last three seasons (including 2011 with McDaniels), Fisher’s 2008-2010 seasons with the Titans, and Schottenheimer’s last four years with the Jets.
It doesn’t get much more predictable for the Spagnuolo-led Rams. We see an exact 61:39 pass run ratio all three seasons, despite changing offensive coordinators prior to 2011. An injury to Sam Bradford and more of a propensity for down-field throws led to a much lower completion percentage in 2011.
Meanwhile, Fisher and Schottenheimer seem to match up pretty well when it comes to play-calling and effectiveness. We see only a 1% difference in pass/run ratio over the last four years, with neither coach both spending some time game-planning run-heavy attacks. We see very similar per-game figures in both yardage and scoring. Completion percentages are even, as well. We see a higher depth of throw for Fisher, but that’s mainly driven up by a 2010 season that saw the Titans easily lead the NFL in aDOT.
Comparing target distribution, we see that Schottenheimer makes much more use of the slot man than Fisher or, to a lesser extent, Spagnuolo. However, note that Fisher used the slot man 24% of the time in 2010, which jives better with Schottenheimer’s trends. Additionally, we see that Spagnuolo threw to the back at a rate below league average, while Schottenheimer was right at 19% and Fisher was a bit over. This could mean an extra target or two each week for Steven Jackson. Otherwise, there isn’t much of a variation here. Fisher and Schottenheimer shouldn’t have much trouble getting on the same page.
Other Head Coach / Coordinator Changes:
Chicago Bears Offensive Coordinator
Out: Mike Martz
In: Mike Tice
Dallas Cowboys Offensive Coordinator
Out: Jason Garrett (still Head Coach)
In: Bill Callahan
Green Bay Packers Offensive Coordinator
Out: Joe Philbin
In: Tom Clements
New England Patriots Offensive Coordinator
Out: Bill O’Brien
In: Josh McDaniels
Oakland Raiders Head Coach / Offensive Coordinator
Out: Hue Jackson (HC), Al Saunders (OC)
In: Dennis Allen (HC), Greg Knapp (OC)
San Diego Chargers Offensive Coordinator
Out: Clarence Shelmon
In: Hal Hunter
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach / Offensive Coordinator
Out: Raheem Morris (HC), Greg Olson (OC)
In: Greg Schiano (HC), Mike Sullivan (OC)
Follow Mike Clay on Twitter at @PFF_MikeClay
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