In general, I pay closer attention to running back prospects. So few backs get even ten touches per game that any backup with a chance for that kind of work is worth a speculative add in certain dynasty formats. Wide receivers are trickier. It can be difficult to determine whether second and third receivers benefit more from the defensive attention on the first receiver than they suffer from the lack of targets, but the opportunity will be there for some backups to step up when the player in front of them leaves in free agency. In this post, I will cover the receivers I believe will have that chance.
To read part 1, in which I covered running backs, click here. To see a list of impending free agents, check out Mike Clay’s article.
Incumbent: Vincent Jackson
Backup: Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Brown
All of the ingredients are there for a new receiver to emerge in San Diego next season. They have an excellent quarterback in Philip Rivers, a star receiver dissatisfied by his lack of a new contract, and some talented players that could take his place. Malcolm Floyd has rated 9.6 overall to Vincent Jackson’s 5.7, and he has done it in 447 fewer snaps. The problem is that Floyd saw fewer snaps because he continued to miss time because of injuries. And with Antonio Gates his own health risk and Vincent Brown a rookie, the Chargers may not believe they have enough pieces to let Jackson go. Still, Floyd has a better chance of becoming a fantasy star than about anyone, and if Jackson walks, the chance to draft Floyd as a value walks with him.
Incumbent: DeSean Jackson
Backup: Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper
Personnel is rarely the scapegoat of a bad season, but if there was ever a scenario that I could see that playing out, it is in Philadelphia. Andy Reid has a long track record of success, and DeSean Jackson was at worst a demoralizing force for the Eagles and at best a mediocre receiver (-3.3 overall) this season. Jeremy Maclin may already be the best receiver on the team. His rating of -0.2 was likely influenced by injury and the dysfunction of the team around him. Every Eagles receiver has a negative rating, and his is the least so. However, I do not believe that the removal of Jackson would create more value for Maclin, and if there is room for another receiver to benefit from it, I doubt that Riley Cooper is the one. His -5.5 overall and -3.7 receiver ratings were worst on the team.
Incumbent: Dwayne Bowe
Backup: Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin
Dwayne Bowe (8.0 overall) has continued his good play no matter the quarterback throwing to him, and I have to think the Chiefs will do their best to resign him. However, should Bowe decide to leave, Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin are the apparent beneficiaries. Breaston had his best games with Matt Cassel under center and has been a positive contributor for the season (3.5 overall). Baldwin has been a rookie. He is rated at -6.0 for the season, but he is bigger even than Bowe and would have the opportunity for an increase in snaps from the 374 he’s had so far this season. I think he is the better fantasy bet of the two, despite his worse play this season.
Incumbent: Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon
Backup: Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie
The Colts will be a fascinating team to watch in the offseason. Their two most prolific receivers, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, will become free agents, and the status of Peyton Manning and their draft selections will determine their decisions to retain them. I cannot imagine Manning returning and Wayne not resigning, but whatever happens with Wayne, he should have a better 2012 season. What was lost with Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter at quarterback and has been rediscovered behind Dan Orlovsky is that Wayne can still play. His 4.6 overall and 7.7 receiver ratings are the only positive ones on the Colts.
Any quarterback should be an improvement on the composite one that threw to Garcon this season, and if the Colts lose Wayne, draft Andrew Luck, and Luck fulfills expectations, Garcon could emerge as a top-15 receiver in fantasy. That is a lot of what-ifs, but Garcon has a high enough floor to make him a worthy speculative add in many-keeper formats. And don’t forget Austin Collie. The most important part of his 2011 season was his maintained health. If Manning returns and is the player he used to be, Collie reverts to a solid second receiver.
Incumbent: Marques Colston and Robert Meachem
Backup: Lance Moore and Devery Henderson
Drew Brees will steal the free agent headlines in New Orleans, but Marques Colston and Robert Meachem are important free agents for the Saints, as well. Brees will certainly return, so if either left, that could open the door for another receiver. However, I doubt the Saints would let them go. Lance Moore has rated better (6.9 overall to 3.8 overall) than Meachem in fewer snaps, but Moore has too checkered an injury history for the Saints to rely on him exclusively. Devery Henderson has been terrible (-7.0 overall). The Saints do not have an obvious player to fill Colston’s shoes, and if they retain him, the fantasy potential of any receiver behind him and Jimmy Graham is limited, even with Brees behind center.
Incumbent: Mario Manningham
Backup: Victor Cruz and Ramses Barden
It is silly to call Victor Cruz a backup because he flew past Mario Manningham in snaps, catches, and performance this season. Cruz is third among receivers in yardage with 1,358, and I am doubtful he has additional room for improvement. Consider that he is only rated 26th among receivers by our ratings at 4.6 overall, in large part to his terrible -4.3 blocking score. Manningham will almost certainly leave, and Eli Manning is a star-maker and has supported three relevant receivers in fantasy, before. The player that intrigues me is Ramses Barden, who has seen all of his 134 snaps this season since week 9. He rates slightly negative (-1.3 overall) but is a neutral blocker, which is better than either Cruz or Hakeem Nicks. Barden will need to stay healthy, but at 6’6” is a clear end zone threat. He will not need a lot of snaps to create value for fantasy.
Incumbent: Jerome Simpson
Backup: Andre Caldwell and Andrew Hawkins
Jerome Simpson was responsible for the play of the year when he flipped end-over-end into the end zone last Sunday. That one play will define his season, but that does not change the fact that he has been bad (-10.4 overall). Still, Andre Caldwell has been worse (-11.4 overall), and in 336 fewer snaps. If anyone should take Simpson’s snaps on the roster, it is undrafted rookie Andrew Hawkins. Hawkins has rated an impressive 5.8 overall in only 153 snaps, which is the same rating that Kenny Britt had in 8 fewer snaps before he tore his ACL. He is an option in only the deepest of dynasty leagues because, whatever happens to Simpson, Hawkins will go undrafted in typical fantasy leagues next season.
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