Fantasy: Advanced Targets - Week 3

Three weeks into the season, PFF's advanced target data has been a valuable tool in predicting the increase or decrease in WR looks we can anticipate going forward. The various trajectories of players like Jordy Nelson, Donald Jones, Antonio Brown, Dwayne Bowe, and Percy Harvin are all clearer when we go beyond the simple target data.

It's not quite as good as a crystal ball. Short of magical powers, there was no way to have foreseen Torrey Smith's explosion, but by combining pass routes run, targets per route, and routes per snap, we can aspire to a milder type of clairvoyance.

Before we go behind the scenes, we'll begin with the simple target report. In order to get a feel for how teams are using their receivers, targets are broken down by franchise. Every player with multiple targets last week is included. Players who saw double digit passes are in bold. Year-to-date targets are in parentheses.

Simple Targets

AZ – Larry Fitzgerald 7 (22), Early Doucet 6 (12), Andre Roberts 5 (14)

ATL – Roddy White 18 (35), Julio Jones 7 (21), Harry Douglas 7 (13)

BAL – Anquan Boldin 13 (27), Torrey Smith 8 (9), LaQuan Williams 3 (3)

BUF – Steve Johnson 10 (30), Donald Jones 10 (21), David Nelson 8 (26)

CAR – Steve Smith 7 (31), Legedu Naanee 2 (14)

CHI – Johnny Knox 8 (18), Dane Sanzenbacher 7 (15), Devin Hester 5 (17), Roy Williams 4 (8)

CIN – Andre Caldwell 10 (15), A.J. Green 5 (23), Jerome Simpson 4 (22)

CLV – Mohamed Massaquoi 6 (17), Josh Cribbs 5 (10, Greg Little 5 (13)

DAL – Kevin Ogletree 7 (13), Laurent Robinson 5 (5), Dez Bryant 4 (11)

DEN – Eric Decker 12 (24), Brandon Lloyd 7 (17), Matt Willis 3 (9)

DET – Calvin Johnson 10 (26), Titus Young 6 (13), Nate Burleson 3 (17)

GB – Greg Jennings 10 (26), James Jones 6 (9), Jordy Nelson 4 (14), Donald Driver 2 (10)

HOU – Andre Johnson 12 (29), Kevin Walter 3 (5), Jacoby Jones 2 (8)

IND – Reggie Wayne 11 (27), Pierre Garcon 9 (20), Austin Collie 7 (18)

JAX – Mike Thomas 8 (26), Jason Hill 5 (10)

KC – Steve Breaston 6 (9), Dwayne Bowe 5 (19)

MIA – Davone Bess 9 (20), Brandon Marshall 7 (30), Brian Hartline 4 (18)

MIN – Michael Jenkins 11 (17), Percy Harvin 5 (17), Bernard Berrian 4 (9), Devin Aromashodu 2 (4)

NE – Wes Welker 19 (42), Chad Ochocinco 4 (9), Deion Branch 3 (22)

NO – Lance Moore 9 (13), Robert Meachem 8 (20), Devery Henderson 4 (15)

NYG – Victor Cruz 5 (8), Hakeem Nicks 5 (22), Brandon Stokley 2 (3)

NYJ – Derrick Mason 8 (16), Plaxico Burress 6 (16), Santonio Holmes 2 (16)

OAK – Denarius Moore 6 (15), Chaz Schilens 4 (5), Darrius Heyward-Bey 3 (9), Derrick Hagan 2 (9)

PHI – Jeremy Maclin 7 (25), DeSean Jackson 6 (19), Steve Smith 5 (8), Jason Avant 5 (16)

PIT – Antonio Brown 7 (21), Mike Wallace 7 (29), Emmanuel Sanders 5 (10), Hines Ward 3 (17)

SD – Vincent Jackson 8 (26), Patrick Crayton 6 (6), Malcolm Floyd 5 (15)

SEA – Sidney Rice 10 (10), Doug Baldwin 4 (12), Golden Tate 3 (8), Ben Obomanu 2 (12)

SF – Michael Cratbtree 6 (8), Josh Morgan 4 (10)

STL – Danario Alexander 7 (12), Brandon Gibson 6 (17), Mike Sims-Walker 3 (16), Austin Pettis 2 (2)

TB – Mike Williams 8 (20), Arrelious Benn 4 (13)

TEN – Nate Washington 9 (27), Lavelle Hawkins 5 (9), Damian Williams 3 (5), Kenny Britt 3 (25)

WAS – Santana Moss 8 (24), Jabar Gaffney 6 (20), Terrence Austin 3

Pass Routes Run

The Good

Nineteen WRs ran 40 or more patterns in Week 3. Megatron and Nate Burleson both eclipsed 50 as the Lions valiantly rallied from down 20 at half, but several of their peers managed similar numbers without playing from behind. Anquan Boldin led all WRs with 52 routes and might be regaining some value due to the quick splash made by Torrey Smith (42 routes). Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon ran 41 and 40 routes respectively.

The Bad

The re-emergence of Jermichael Finley meant Greg Jennings was the only Packers wideout involved in the passing game. Jordy Nelson led Green Bay’s tertiary threats with 23 routes. Donald Driver (22), James Jones (15), and Randall Cobb (10) all belong on your waiver wire.

The Ugly

Roy Williams only ran nine routes but was miraculously targeted four times. He turned this opportunity into zero catches, although found time to record a drop. Williams has been one of the worst players in the NFL for a long time and has no business on an NFL roster, much less being active or getting on the field or seeing targets or . . . you get the idea. Of course, playing for the Bears, he was targeted on a higher percentage of routes than Wes Welker.

Targets Per Pass Route

Leaders

Wes Welker recorded a target on a whopping 43% of his routes this past week and averaged a jaw-dropping 4.9 yards per route (anything above 2.5 is excellent). Welker absolutely destroyed the field in fantasy points per game in 2009, and his struggles in 2010 can now be clearly attributed to his recovery from the ligament tears, not the sudden departure of Randy Moss. His 34% target rate on the season leads all receivers with at least 90 routes.

Last week I alluded to the possibility of a mini-breakout for Donald Jones as teams adjusted to David Nelson. He led the Bills with a 26% target rate. For the season, Stevie Johnson and Nelson both sit at 28%. This ranks them 6th and 7th respectively among WRs with at least 70 routes.

In his 2011 debut, Sidney Rice was unaffected by either injury or surrounding incompetence. He capitalized on a 32% target rate to the tune of 3.52 yards per route. Eric Decker’s 33% target rate the week after his breakout confirms his 2011 viability. Philly’s Steve Smith ran only 12 routes but was targeted on 42% of them. He could go from the waiver wire right into your starting lineup if Maclin misses this week.

Trailers

A week after he had the look of an emerging star, A.J. Green managed a desultory line of 32 routes, 5 targets, and 0.91 yards per route. For the season his target rate (23%) and yards per route (1.96) are identical to Michael Jenkins.

Veterans Donald Driver (9%) and Hines Ward (8%) continue to sink further down the pecking order for their respective clubs. They are both at 15% or worse for the season and lack value even in the deepest of leagues.

Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts both managed 40+ patterns but combined to receive targets on only 15% of their routes. On the season, 25 WRs have as many targets as Fitzgerald. Wes Welker has twice as many. Both Ken Whisenhunt and Kevin Kolb share culpability in what can only characterized as one of the most depressing losses of the Rod Graves era.

Red Flags

You can understand why Santonio Holmes went ballistic after Sunday’s loss. Despite 46 routes, he was targeted only twice. His yearly stats in terms of routes, targets, and yards are now almost identical to Devin Hester. Superstars like Fitzgerald and Hakeem Nicks are currently struggling against bracket coverage, which doesn't bode well for Santonio's chances. Dustin Keller is the only other Jet skill player with any talent whatsoever. Holmes and his owners are facing a long, frustrating season.

Pass Routes Per Snap

Lance Moore and Austin Collie both ran routes on 80% or more of their snaps last week, while Antonio Brown and Titus Young managed 74%. All four of these players received at least six targets as a result and have more value than their overall snap counts would suggest.

Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Bowe fell below the 50% mark in games where even the slightest amount of creativity from their play-callers would have led to a win.

Hakeem Nicks, Andre Johnson, and Denarius Moore are all at 52% or worse for the season.  It’s not time to worry yet, but the run/pass balance of those offenses is something to track as the season progresses.

Tight Ends

PFF Premium has added signature stats for TEs, so we'll occasionally be highlighting them the rest of the way. Everywhere you look, someone is touting the depth at the TE position. But is that really the case?

Especially in PPR leagues where scoring is less influenced by the randomness of receiving TDs, having a true TE1 is at least as important as having a good RB2. If we use all of the tools in our Advanced Targets toolkit, it's possible to create a profile for TEs who will put up consistent points going forward.

•  75+ pass routes run
• Targeted on at least 20% of pass routes
• 1.7+ yards per route

The bolded players meet the criteria. For the non-bolded players, their area of short-coming is italicized. Players are sorted by total targets.

With Hernandez currently injured, only seven players qualify as a true TE1.

There are a few notable omissions. Of all the healthy TEs, Owen Daniels is the one I’d consider most likely to join this group. It’s easy to see his slow start a result of the game environment from Houston’s two easy victories, but a closer look raises questions about that explanation. Daniels is 13th in routes among TEs, but his 1.36 yards per route is disconcerting. He’s only been targeted on 17% of his routes, despite the absence of a No. 2 threat behind Andre Johnson.

Owners of Antonio Gates expect him to join this group when he returns from injury, but, after a brutal performance in Week 2, he’s averaging less than one yard per route. Tony Gonzalez currently ranks 5th in fantasy points, but his early success rests almost entirely on a fluky TD rate. Having managed no more than six TDs either of the last two seasons, he's only a fallback option in fantasy. Kellen Winslow has been targeted a robust 21 times but has turned those opportunities into 130 yards and no TDs.

Fred Davis was a breakout story through two weeks. Week 3 saw a disastrous three targets. He’s now being targeted on less than 10% of his snaps and could quickly fall back into his 2010 role.

If you own one of these TDs with strong target numbers but lousy peripherals, now is the time to craft a creative deal that allows you to acquire one of the true fantasy starters.