One of my goals this offseason was to quantitatively find out when to grab each position in a standard serpentine draft. Part one of the series featuring quarterbacks and can be found here and part two of the series featuring tight ends can be found here. Here are the parameters I used behind the curtain for this study:
The top-50 wide receivers from each of the past three seasons were charted based on their positional rank and average draft position (ADP). The draft data was compiled from MyFantasyLeague.com’s completed drafts after August 15th prior to each season. Next, average value theory (AVT) was used to provide an expected value (PPG) for every player based on their positional rank in the draft.
With that data in place, a PPG +/- was calculated based on a player’s expected PPG and actual production. In the case of the wide receivers, slightly over half of the players finished within 2 points of their expected PPG on the season. Players finishing with more than +2 in PPG were considered a hit, lower than -2 considered a bust for the season.
Here are the 11 wide receivers with +5 or higher in terms of PPG +/-, the biggest values at the position over the last three seasons:
| Year | Pos.RK | ADP | Player | PPG | Exp.PPG | PPG +/- |
| 2010 | 50 | 142 | Collie | 19 | 9 | 10 |
| 2011 | 26 | 70 | Britt | 21 | 12 | 9 |
| 2011 | 46 | 128 | J.Nelson | 18 | 9 | 9 |
| 2009 | 44 | 132 | S.Smith (PHI) | 17 | 9 | 8 |
| 2011 | 14 | 42 | Welker | 21 | 14 | 7 |
| 2009 | 19 | 54 | Marshall | 19 | 13 | 6 |
| 2010 | 19 | 60 | Nicks | 19 | 13 | 6 |
| 2011 | 35 | 97 | Steve Smith (CAR) | 16 | 10 | 6 |
| 2009 | 11 | 32 | Welker | 20 | 15 | 5 |
| 2010 | 45 | 124 | M.Williams (TB) | 14 | 9 | 5 |
| 2010 | 46 | 127 | Britt | 14 | 9 | 5 |
Austin Collie at the top of the list should come as little surprise to many fantasy owners. He was a true difference-maker in 2010 prior to his string of concussions, on pace to be a top-5 fantasy receiver for the season. Wes Welker made the cut in 2011, beating out fellow stud Calvin Johnson based on their difference in ADP. Kenny Britt made the cut in two of his three NFL seasons as a big value in terms of PPG. With a full recovery, Britt will likely to a PPG value in 2012 as well.
On the flip side, here are the 12 most disappointing wide receivers based on their expected PPG:
| Year | Pos.RK | ADP | Player | PPG | Exp.PPG | PPG +/- |
| 2010 | 2 | 12 | R.Moss | 6 | 19 | -13 |
| 2009 | 20 | 55 | A.Gonzalez | 0 | 13 | -13 |
| 2011 | 36 | 98 | Amendola | 0 | 10 | -10 |
| 2011 | 38 | 110 | MSW | 0 | 10 | -10 |
| 2011 | 42 | 119 | Evans | 0 | 10 | -10 |
| 2011 | 25 | 68 | Ochocinco | 3 | 12 | -9 |
| 2009 | 22 | 57 | Royal | 5 | 13 | -8 |
| 2010 | 42 | 119 | Aromashodu | 2 | 10 | -8 |
| 2011 | 1 | 9 | AJ | 14 | 21 | -7 |
| 2009 | 42 | 120 | Hixon | 3 | 10 | -7 |
| 2010 | 15 | 43 | Stevon Smith | 8 | 14 | -6 |
| 2010 | 40 | 114 | Berrian | 4 | 10 | -6 |
Randy Moss sports the most disappointing season with his 3-team tour of lackluster play. As a late first round pick in 2010, Moss absolutely killed fantasy teams as a certified bust. Steve Smith finds a place on both lists as a bust in 2010, only to rebound back to WR1 status in 2011 with Cam Newton under center. Chad Ochocinco was a very hyped player as he landed in New England in 2011, only to barely play and fail to top even 5 PPG over the course of the season.
Each ADP round includes an average PPG +/-. Finally, a formula was created to give an overall value score for each round of selections. It is a sliding scale where stability is valued more in the opening rounds as missing on a player early can set a fantasy team back from the start. In the later rounds, upside is more valued as the roster turnover on the backend of a roster is high if a player does not perform well during the season.
Finally, here is the breakdown by round at the wide receiver position. The score is based on more stability in the early rounds and higher upside later in the draft. Some rounds were lumped together to give enough data for significance study.
| RD | Value | PPG | Exp.PPG | PPG +/- | Expected | Bust Rate | Hit Rate | |
| WR | 1 | 0.450 | 16.0 | 19.8 | -3.8 | 50% | 50% | 0% |
| WR | 2 | 0.400 | 16.3 | 17.4 | -1.2 | 50% | 38% | 13% |
| WR | 3 | 0.431 | 14.7 | 15.6 | -0.9 | 69% | 23% | 8% |
| WR | 4 | 0.383 | 13.0 | 14.3 | -1.3 | 58% | 33% | 8% |
| WR | 5 | 0.328 | 12.5 | 13.3 | -0.8 | 31% | 38% | 31% |
| WR | 6 | 0.317 | 12.2 | 12.3 | -0.1 | 25% | 42% | 33% |
| WR | 7 | 0.338 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 0.3 | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| WR | 8,9 | 0.293 | 10.3 | 10.5 | -0.2 | 65% | 17% | 17% |
| WR | 10+ | 0.238 | 8.9 | 9.4 | -0.5 | 54% | 26% | 21% |
Randy Moss was the main reason for the depressed first round statistics. Without Moss’ nightmare season, the cumulative PPG in round 1 rises all the way to 18 PPG. Round 3 receivers are nearly as valuable as first round selections based on their expectations. A whopping 69% finished within 2 PPG of their preseason projections. In rounds 5-7, nearly 33% of the receivers were a hit, providing immense value in that range of a draft.
After discussing each position individually, this data will be combined to formulate an entire draft strategy for 2012.
—
Ask Chad Parsons for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @PFF_ChadParsons
Find more of our Dynasty Content here.
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.