NFL Draft News & Analysis

Early favorites for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) celebrates the victory against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

  • Caleb Williams: Williams had the sixth-highest PFF passing grade in all of college football last season at 89.9, finishing the year with 42 touchdowns and just five interceptions, which is why he has the best odds to be 2024's No. 1 overall pick.
  • Drake MayeSitting with the second-best odds to be next year's first overall pick, Maye didn’t just lead PFF’s big-time throw rankings in 2022, he dominated them, as he finished the season with 45 — 10 more than any other player in the nation.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr.Likely to spark a similar debate to the Ja’Marr Chase versus Penei Sewell discussion with this offensive tackle class, Harrison Jr. could very much be in the frame for the first overall selection if the team picking first already has a quarterback they don’t want to move on from.
Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

With the 2023 NFL Draft now complete, we can start to get an early look ahead at the 2024 class, which has many excited already. Many have claimed that the top quarterback, wide receiver and offensive tackle from 2024 would have been the first at their position to come off the board last week. So who are the favorites to hear their name called as the No. 1 pick when all is said and done next year?

Editor's note: Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

QB Caleb Williams, USC (-550)

Williams had the sixth-highest PFF passing grade in all of college football last season at 89.9, finishing the year with 42 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He was fourth in the nation with 32 big-time throws but can also make a big impact as a runner. His 36 missed tackles forced in 2022 ranked seventh at the position last year.


QB Drake Maye, North Carolina (+600)

Maye didn’t just lead PFF’s big-time throw rankings in 2022, he dominated them, as he finished the season with 45 — 10 more than any other player in the nation. He did put the ball in danger more often than Williams though, with a 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate compared with Williams’ 1.8%. If he outperforms Williams in 2023, he has every chance to leapfrog him at the top of the draft.


WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (+2000)

Likely to spark a similar debate to the Ja’Marr Chase versus Penei Sewell discussion with this offensive tackle class, Harrison Jr. could very much be in the frame for the first overall selection if the team picking first already has a quarterback they don’t want to move on from. In an impressive season for Ohio State last year, he dropped just three of the 80 catchable passes thrown his way and averaged 3.18 yards per route run.


OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State (+2500)

Fashanu has been on the field for just 627 snaps in his college career so far but already looks like one of the most impressive pass blockers in the nation. In nine career starts, he has produced an 82.0-plus PFF pass-blocking grade in six of them. Seeing 299 pass-blocking snaps in 2022, he allowed just seven total pressures, none of which resulted in a sack.


OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame (+2500)

The debate we are likely to see over which tackle should come off the board first between Alt and Fashanu is going to be fascinating and, like with Harrison Jr., if the team picking first overall already has a quarterback, perhaps that debate will be for the top pick. Alt allowed just eight total pressures from 406 pass-blocking snaps in 2022 and produced a 91.0 PFF run-blocking grade, which led all tackles.

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