Betting News & Analysis

PFF's favorite futures bets ahead of NFL Week 4

We’ve done a good job through the first two weeks of finding in-season value on NFL futures bets through three weeks, with the selections below gaining value in all but one instance (all prices from FanDuel). 


Kansas City to win the Super Bowl: +550 after Week 1, now +400

Seattle to win the NFC West and Super Bowl: +190 and +1400 after Week 1, respectively, now +115 and +1100, respectively

Green Bay to win the Super Bowl: +2600 after Week 1, now +1500

Tennessee to win the AFC South: +125 after week 1, now -125


Green Bay to win the NFC North -140 after Week 2, now -190

Philadelphia to miss the playoffs: -170 after Week 2, now -390

Cardinals to make the playoffs: +104 after Week 2, now +110

Most of the value is sucked out of those futures, but there is still some value on the board. Here are our selections after Week 3:

Sep 27, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) prepares to pass the ball in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay +100 to win the NFC South (56%)

The marketplace currently has Tampa and New Orleans tied for the highest probability to win a division owned by New Orleans for the last three years. We’re a bit more bullish on the Bucs to win the division for the first time since 2007, as we have them at -127. The Bucs have the 10th-easiest schedule remaining in the NFL and the league’s second-best defense in our opponent-adjusted metrics. They face a reeling Chargers team this week at home, where they are favored by over a touchdown. With the Saints on the road in Detroit, this has a better chance of being more expensive a week from now than it does of being cheaper, so take it now.

New England +125 to win the AFC East (47%)

The Bills are, understandably, the current favorites in the division, and while we agree with that, it’s by a smaller margin for us than in the market. We make this price +113, so there’s some value on a team that hasn’t finished without the best record in this division since 2000. Buffalo and New England have the two toughest schedules left in the NFL, and this is a bet that Cam Newton and Bill Belichick will handle such a hill slightly better than Josh Allen and Sean McDermott moving forward.  

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