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NFL Week 2 Leveraging Tails: Bet on QB Tua Tagovailoa and the explosive Miami offense

2RT63KY Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Miami Dolphins– 5.5 & Tua Tagovailoa over 275 passing yards: It’s time to treat Mike McDaniel's offense as the elite passing outfit it is, one the team will lean on to win many games this year. I’m fading the market pricing of this offense and will be jumping all this bet.

• Market overreaction for New England: The market seems to be meaningfully upgrading the Patriots after a strong Week 1 showing, but I’d suggest we learned nothing meaningful about the team.

• Running it back: Judah Fortgang's same-game parlays gave a $100 bettor an 86.1% ROI last year.

Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”

However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.

Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.


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