Back at the start of the season this game was slated to be a matchup of young signal-callers selected just four spots apart in the first round of last year’s draft. But an injury to Jake Locker means that veteran Matt Hasselbeck will be running the show again this week after filling in for the injured second-year man a week ago. And though Hasselbeck is certainly not the worst backup quarterback out there, the Titans would love to have Locker back under center. Locker has been good this year when healthy, achieving a QB rating of 90.2, compared with Hasselbeck’s 78.0.
Minnesota continues its tour of the AFC South with its third inter-conference game in five weeks. Few people could have predicted the Vikings would be leading the NFC North at this point, but as it stands they are tied atop the division. There’s no lack of talent in that division though, so Minnesota will need to take advantage of its winnable games if they hope to retain their position. Here are a few matchups that will be crucial in allowing Minnesota to keep up the pressure on their division rivals.
Ground and Pound
The NFL has grown into a passing league in recent years, but the regular rules don’t apply when you have Adrian Peterson (+6.0) on the roster. That grade is good for highest among all running backs, despite Peterson having played fewer snaps (172) than 14 other backs. He has surprised many with a solid early-season run despite tearing his ACL last December. And while his Elusive Rating may be lower than it has been in previous years– 37.8 compared with at least 45 in each of the past four years — his 14 combined missed tackles are still good for sixth overall. Leading Peterson to the line of scrimmage are fullbacks Jerome Felton (+3.1 run block) and Rhett Ellison (+1.0 run block). The Vikings aren’t shy about using their fullbacks, who have been involved in over 60% of offensive plays this year.
The Tennessee defensive line features a mixed bag of run defenders. Snap count leader Kamerion Wimbley (-3.4 run defense) has been disappointing in this regard, but the young duo of Jurrell Casey (+4.8 run def) and Derrick Morgan (+2.6 run def) have been stellar. Morgan leads all 4-3 defensive ends with a Run Stop Percentage of 11.5, and Casey is not far off that mark with 9.1, good for seventh among defensive tackles. Casey’s fellow sophomore, Karl Klug, has been lackluster against the run so far, registering only an assist and a missed tackle on the stat sheet. The Titan’s ability to penetrate the line and redirect runs will be paramount their chances to shut down Peterson.
Will Wimbley Show Up?
Listed technically as a linebacker last season with Oakland, Wimbley played 56% of his snaps with his hand in the dirt. That’s changed dramatically with the Titans this year, as the newly labeled defensive end has played all but one snap on the right side of the defensive line. With the change of position has come a change of responsibility. Tennessee hasn’t made him play nearly as often in coverage — three snaps so far this year, compared to 421 in 2011. Wimbley has been somewhat inconsistent, recording two or fewer disruptions in 10 of his last 18 games. But the former first-rounder is more than capable of taking over a game, as evidenced by his nine disruptions (and drawing a holding call) against San Diego in Week 2.
Shutting down Wimbley will be the responsibility of fourth overall pick Matt Kalil. The rookie has yet to give up a sack in his young NFL career, and has surrendered only five disruptions to opposing pass rushers. With this stiff test ahead of him, Wimbley’s best chance for a sack will likely come by not giving up on plays. Three of Christian Ponder’s sacks have been the result of his propensity to hold onto the ball longer than he should.
Chris Johnson vs. Vikings Linebackers
It’s been three years since Chris Johnson earned the nickname CJ2K by rushing for over 2,000 yards. With the current trends, it’s hard to be optimistic about 2012, either. Johnson has regressed every year since that incredible 2009 campaign in terms of rushing yards, touchdowns, and yards per carry. Most alarming though is his drop-off in big runs. His Breakaway Percentage (percentage of yards gained on runs over 15 yards) has decreased in each of the past three years, from a fantastic 50.4 in 2009, to 36.9 a year ago, and only 18.3 in four games this season. While some of this can be attributed to the quality of the blocking in front of him, Johnson needs to help himself some too — he’s forced only five missed tackles so far this year, which is on pace for by far his lowest season total.
This might not be the game where Johnson gets it going, though. Not a single Minnesota defender has a run defense grade below -0.7. Entering his 10th NFL season, Kevin Williams is as stout a run defender as ever, and made life difficult for opposing guards and centers alike. But the linebacker duo of Chad Greenway (+3.2 run def) and Erin Henderson (+6.7) have been most impressive, and combined for 21 stops in the run game. Henderson’s Run Stop Percentage of 17.9 is tops among 4-3 outside linebackers, but Greenway’s is not far behind with 12.1 (ninth overall). And of course, Antione Winfield (+3.0 run def) is still causing problems for opposing runners. Since we started grading in 2008, Winfield has never graded below +4.5 run defense in a season.
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