The last time the Patriots traveled to Buffalo, a 15-game winning streak ended when Tom Brady threw four interceptions and the Bills came up with a big time victory in the last minute of the game. This time New England can’t afford to have that scenario play out with the Bills ahead in the AFC East and with an opportunity to put two games between them and the division’s perennial powerhouse.
The Patriots have lost their last two games, but the performances featured encouraging displays on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Buffalo has picked up two wins without being quite as convincing as many hoped they would be, leading to an intriguing Week 4 matchup.
Bump in the Road, or Reality Check?
After a strong defensive start of the season for the Patriots, where their defensive players cumulatively graded out at +20.0 and +13.9 in their first two games, a disappointing performance (-12.9 as a unit) versus the Ravens was more than a little concerning. Yes, Baltimore has one of the best all-around offenses in the league, but this was suppose to be an area shored up over the offseason.
Facing the Bills’ offensive line will be a good test for their pass rushers. Buffalo's line has yet to allow a sack and rookie left tackle Cordy Glenn has stood out with just two hurries surrendered. His contest with fellow rookie Chandler Jones has the makings of a duel not just pivotal in this game, but also in our Race for Rookie of the Year with both men factoring into the discussion.
The pass coverage suffered the same downside in the last game as the rest of the defense with only Devin McCourty grading in the green (and his night will be remembered for a costly pass interference penalty). To defend the Bills’ spread offense it will be important that Kyle Arrington, who moves to cover the slot in nickel, takes away the quick option over the middle of the field. In 39 snaps defending the slot, he has just allowed two receptions for 33 yards which makes him the third-highest ranked slot corner in Coverage Snaps Per Reception.
Tom Brady
Our starting quarterback in the Team of the Week in Week 3 is beginning to look like the Brady we’ve come to know and right in time for the first divisional game of the season. His best performance of the season came against the Ravens' defense, grading +6.9 overall and completing almost 70% of his passes. When his offensive line gives him a clean pocket Brady is near unstoppable, hitting his receivers constantly no matter what coverage he is facing.
However, when the defense generates pressure, things change — his completion percentage falls to 50% from his usual 70%. He hasn’t been pressured a lot this season, (the second-lowest pressured quarterback with just 23.6% of his drop-backs resulting in pressure), so it’s important the Bills change that. Its imperative that if they are to achieve that goal then they need to step up their game. They’ve struggled to consistently generate pressure with both free agent signings (Mario Williams and Mark Anderson) taking some time to get their engines going so far.
Patriots Running Backs vs. Bills Linebackers
Adding another dimension to their offense, Stevan Ridley is the running back the Patriots needed. Averaging 4.5 yards per attempt and 2.48 yards after contact, Ridley also leads the league with six runs over 15 yards, which shows how dangerous he can be. What the game against Baltimore proved, however, is that they need his running game to help them out, with the Patriots rarely getting much movement against a dominant Ravens front seven.
When you look at what Buffalo brings to the table, you could see something similar happening. They’ve got plenty of bulk on the defensive line, but the linebackers have been the star of the show through three weeks. Nick Barnett has produced eight stops in the run game while strongside linebacker Arthur Moats has earned a +5.1 grade against the run in 48 snaps. Moats shares snaps with safety-come-converted-linebacker Bryan Scott, who takes the field on passing downs and is coming off one of the better games of a long career.
With the Patriots losing Aaron Hernandez and bringing with it more multiple receiver sets, it seems a given we’ll see a lot of Scott in this one. Since his full-time move to linebacker, this could be the biggest challenge facing him yet as it’s likely the Patriots will get some big bodies coming at him in the running game. Creating those matchups has long been a Bill Belichick staple and look for something similar this week.
Follow Gonzalo on Twitter: @PFF_Gonzalo
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.