Just a game back in what is shaping as one of the NFL's stronger divisions, the NFC West, the Rams are coming off a rather disappointing loss in Miami. They more than doubled the Dolphins’ offensive yardage, but some crucial fumbles and a plethora of penalties saw the chance for a road win fall short. As they have won just one of their past 13 away from Edwards Jones Dome, pulling off the upset at home against a hot Packer club is all the more important.
A sluggish start to 2012 saw Green Bay dip below .500 for the first time since 2008, which was Aaron Rodgers’ first season as a starter. Then the Packers silenced the critics with an air show in Houston, scoring six touchdowns on one of the league’s better defenses. As important as that victory was to the team, it was only one win, and the next step is to string together good performances. A win in St. Louis will put the Packers back on track, but a loss here will have people voicing the same concerns they were a week ago. Let’s look into a few matchups that will be key for the team that comes out on top.
Wayne Hunter vs. Clay Matthews
If you’ve read our latest Signature Stats Snapshot on Pass Blocking Efficiency, you may notice some surprising names at the bottom of the list. However, Wayne Hunter shouldn’t be one of those surprises. Hunter’s issues with pass protection are the chief reason he is no longer with the Jets, as he’s given up four or more pressures in 10 of his last 22 games. He hasn’t done much to remedy that in St. Louis either. After finishing eighth-worst in 2011, his PBE ranks near the bottom once again this season, as evidenced by his -3.5 pass blocking grade. He had a particularly tough time in Miami last week (three sacks, two hits) while getting schooled by rookie Olivier Vernon.
Accounting for more than one third of Green Bay’s total pressure is none other than Clay Matthews (+15.2). The nine sacks he’s accumulated through six weeks leads all 3-4 OLBs by a considerable margin. Yet Matthews isn’t one dimensional, as his 19 stops are second on the team, and he has yet to miss a tackle this year. Don’t be surprised if Matthews sees his fair share of Lance Kendricks helping out in pass protection and the run game in effort to limit the damage.
Packers Receivers vs. Rams Cornerbacks
It’s been a slow start for Green Bay’s receivers, but their display against Houston put the league back on notice. With Greg Jennings still out of the lineup, Jordy Nelson and James Jones stepped up big, with five touchdowns between the pair on some fantastic catches. Once thought of as the third or even fourth option on the team, Jones (+3.9) now leads the NFL with seven receiving touchdowns. Jones is dangerous after the catch too as he has forced five missed tackles, which ranks ninth among receivers. Just ahead of him with six missed tackles is his second-year teammate, Randall Cobb. Cobb has spent over 80% of his snaps lined up in the slot, and leads all receivers with an 84.6% catch rate there.
When St. Louis is in the nickel, which will in all likelihood be for much of the game, veteran corner Cortland Finnegan (+9.2) will fill the role of slot cornerback. Finnegan has been an outstanding addition for the Rams thus far. He’ll have as good a chance as anyone to shut down Cobb’s potential to gain yardage after the catch, as he leads all defensive backs with 10 stops in the passing game. Lining up on outside receivers will fall to Janoris Jenkins and nickel corner Bradley Fletcher. Jenkins had been solid with a positive coverage grade up until a disastrous outing in Miami, where he gave up completions on all nine balls thrown his way for over 100 yards and a touchdown. He may be third on the depth chart, but Fletcher (+4.6 pass coverage) has been phenomenal this season. He has given up a meager 0.41 yards per coverage snap (first among all defensive backs), and he has yet to give up more than 21 yards in a game this year. Jones and Nelson may be his stiffest test of the season, and how he holds up will go a long way toward limiting the effectiveness of the Packers’ passing attack.
Life On the Edge
What a turnaround for Bryan Bulaga (-4.9 pass blocking) this year. A disappointing rookie year saw him bounce back strong in 2011, giving up just one sack and two hits, but his pass protection seems to have reverted back to his rookie form. Packer fans can hope this is just a rough patch though, seeing as 44% of the pressure he’s conceded came in the Packers’ trip to Seattle. His most recent performance (just one pressure given up to Houston) gives the impression that the Bulaga of 2011 is still there, and Rodgers should hope so if he doesn’t want to spend this Sunday running for his life. On the left side, Marshall Newhouse has done the opposite of Bulaga. He had the third-lowest pass blocking grade for a tackle in 2011, but his +9.1 pass blocking is now eighth among NFL tackles.
Looking to replicate the thrashing Bulaga got in Seattle, will be edge rusher Chris Long. Long, who has spent practically every snap lined-up on the defensive left, has been the model of consistency, generating at least three pressures in all six games this year. His pass rushing grade of +16.7 ranks fourth among all defenders. Long’s counterpart on the right side, and fellow firs- round pick, Robert Quinn (+4.5 pass rushing) has been a bit more hit-or-miss so far. Nearly half of the pressure he has generated was against the Cardinals in Week 5, where he recorded 11 disruptions (three sacks, two hits, six hurries). A big day by either of these two is paramount in the Rams climbing back over .500.
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